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The Long War

The Long War. Reporting on The Long War Afghanistan Pakistan The Predator War Iraq Threats to the West Beyond Afghanistan and Iraq. Reporting on The Long War. Origin of term About The Long War Journal Embedding

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The Long War

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  1. The Long War • Reporting on The Long War • Afghanistan • Pakistan • The Predator War • Iraq • Threats to the West • Beyond Afghanistan and Iraq

  2. Reporting on The Long War • Origin of term • About The Long War Journal • Embedding • Sebastian Junger: “Journalistic convention hold that you can't write objectively about people you are close to, but you can't write objectively about people who are shooting at you either. Pure objectivity—difficult enough while covering a city council meeting—isn't remotely possible in a war;bonding with the men around you is the least of your problems. Objectivity and honesty are not the same thing, though and it is entirely possible to write with honesty about the very personal and distorting experiences of war. • Not about good vs bad news, but accurate • Conflicts in reporting (Mosul)

  3. Afghanistan • US/NATO was not prepared for insurgency • US focus was on CT operations • No Afghan partner • Taliban established Shadow Governments • Insurgency spread • The “surge” & time • Al Qaeda's presence • Afghanistan is a sideshow to Pakistan

  4. Pakistan • Tribal areas bases for al Qaeda, Afghan & Pakistani Taliban • Pakistan's peace deals • 2009: Taliban advance to within 60 miles of Islamabad • Good vs Bad Taliban • Strategic Depth • US trying to pressure Pakistan to move again North Waziristan, problem is far bigger

  5. Predators, a Tactic, Not a Strategy • Three targets: Leaders, External ops, and Afghan groups • Pros: • Thins leaders, forces inexperienced to take command • Plan for survival, not operations • Cons: • Increases OPSEC • Puts allies at risk • Civilian backlash • No substitute for holding ground • Al Qaeda still plotting despite Predator strikes

  6. Iraq • The surge worked • Iraqis have rejected al Qaeda, Mahdi Army • Security forces are good enough to keep lid on internal threat • Iran continues to attempt to extend influence • Failure to form government hasn't fractured Iraq • Still a long way to go, cannot judge succes for a decade or more

  7. The Threat to the West • Al Qaeda's External Operations Network based in FATA • Plots against West, India traced to FATA • London Tubes • 2006 Transatlantic airline plot • Times Square • Europe plot • Al Qaeda affiliates are used as “bench”

  8. Beyond Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq • Al Qaeda affiliates seek to hit the US • Yemen • Somalia • North Africa • Southeast Asia • Caucasus

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