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Regional Wind Resource Assessment: Northwest Power Plan 2030

This study aims to estimate a supply curve of wind power in the Northwest over 20 years, factoring in transmission feasibility and competition. It builds on existing assessments and aims to identify viable generation projects in the Rocky Mountain Sub-region. The approach involves estimating production characteristics, component costs, and transmission linkages for wind plants. Preferred resource areas include Columbia Basin, Central Alberta, and SE Oregon, with a focus on the Boardman hub. The study estimates costs and production using synthetic data and historical hourly production information, offering insights into the region's wind energy potential.

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Regional Wind Resource Assessment: Northwest Power Plan 2030

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  1. Approach to the Wind Resource Assessment for the Sixth Power Plan Northwest Power & Conservation Council Generating Resources Advisory Committee August 21, 2008

  2. Objective • Estimate a supply curve of wind power plausibly available to the Northwest over the next 20 years • Considering: • Transmission feasibility • Competition from other load centers

  3. Alternative approaches • "Informed expert" estimate (of quantity) (5th Plan) • Adopt/modify a recent assessment • RMATS • NTAC Montana - Northwest & C-N-C studies • Western Governor's Association CDEAC initiative • US DOE 20% Wind Energy by 2030 • Build on or adopt an ongoing assessment • WECC 2009 NERC Long-term Reliability Analysis (LRTA) 15% renewables scenario • WGA/USDOE Western Renewable Energy Zone project • Independent assessment, drawing on information from all the foregoing where feasible

  4. RMATS Wind Assessment* Goal: "Identify technically, financially and environmentally viable generation projects with potential for development in the Rocky Mountain Sub-region in the near future". Annual capacity factors and capacity values calculated for load regions based on NREL wind speed data. * Hamilton, et al. Integrating Wind into Transmission Planning: The Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study (RMATS). March 2004

  5. RMATS load regions & wind capacity factors

  6. NTAC C-N-C Study Resource areas & transmission corridors

  7. WGA CDEAC supply curves* * Western Governor's Association. Clean and Diversified Energy Initiative: Wind Task Force Report. March 2006

  8. CDEAC resource areas

  9. US DOE: 20% Wind Energy by 2030 • Published May 2008; EOY 2006 data • PNW wind characteristics based on 2002 NREL state wind power maps. • Wind capacity expansion estimated usign NREL WinDS GIS/Linear programming capacity expansion model • 136 Balancing areas (load centers) • 358 Wind resource regions • Transmission linkages (10% of existing capacity assumed available for wind) • Seeks "Cost-optimal" buildout • Wind project and transmission capital and operating costs from Black & Veatch study (to be published). Terrestrial and shallow offshore technology.

  10. 20% by 2030 Report: Somewhat counterintuitive results for PNW

  11. Application of existing studies • RMATS • Resource area annual capacity factors • NTAC • Transmission cost information (needs escalation) • No original resource information • CDEAC • State-level wind resource supply curves • No Canadian information • USDOE 20% • Wind project and transmission cost estimates • Questionable development patterns at regional scale • WECC/TEPPC 15% renewables scenario • Resource characteristics based on new NREL mesoscale data • Insufficient wind resource • WREZ • Resource characteristics based on new NREL mesoscale data • Realistic resource areas and transmission corridors • Unlikely to be available in time

  12. Proposed approach - Regional wind supply curve • Identify principal wind resource areas available to Northwest utilities • Substantial developable wind resource • Actual transmission initiatives • Available information regarding wind characteristics • Estimate production characteristics of each WRA • Seasonal and diurnal hourly output (12 mo x 24 hr) • Incremental demand for regulation & load-following (?) • Estimate component costs • Wind plant (i.e., busbar + local interconnection) • Terrestrial • Shallow off-shore • New transmission to proposed Boardman hub (unit cost x circuit miles) • Point-to-point transmission, Boardman to LSE (to establish parity w/energy-efficiency) • Regulation & load-following

  13. Wind resource areas & transmission • Preferred: WREZ resource areas and transmission corridors definitions; but, unlikely to be available in time • Alternative: CDEAC WRAs + S. OR offshore & NTAC Canadian WRAs, guided by current transmission corridor proposals • Columbia Basin buildout • Central Montana • S.E Idaho • Central Alberta • Wyoming • S. OR offshore • BC Coastal? • SE Oregon?

  14. MATL TransCanada Northern Lights BPA W. of McNary BPA I-5 PacifiCorp Walla Walla NWE MSTI IPC Hemmingway - Boardman PG&E Canada-PNW-CA PGE Southern Crossing PacifiCorp Gateway West Major transmission proposals

  15. Proposed Boardman hub Wind resource areas and transmission corridors

  16. Estimating resource area production • 12 mo x 24 hour time series for modelling purposes • U.S. Resource Areas preferred option: 3-year synthetic production from NREL mesoscale dataset (30,000 points in US WECC) • If NREL synthetic hourly not available: • Aggregate historical hourly production data (Columbia Basin areas) • Synthetic production estimates from anemometer data (Columbia Basin, Montana) • Annual capacity factors from RMATS and CDEAC studies • Alberta - AESO aggregate historical hourly production

  17. Estimating costs • Wind project costs: • Representative project • Terrestrial and offshore • Effective cost will vary by capacity factor • Terrestrial capital cost discussion later today, O&M costs to follow • Off-shore - LIPA study, USDOE 20% study, reported project costs. • Transmission costs • Unit costs x line length • NTAC unit costs, escalated w/consideration of other studies & reported transmission project costs • Regulation, load-following & shaping) • Initial discussion to follow this presentation

  18. Other issues • Benefits of geographic diversity in reducing demand for regulation and load-following • Assumptions regarding transmission load factor: • Tradeoff between transmission cost and value of interrupted energy • Relative location of resource area and firming services. • Inconsistent sources of wind resource data • NPCC perspective • Central point of delivery (e.g. Mid-C of proposed Boardman hub) • MAy not be representative of local service

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