TMAW year in review and annual awards

1. TMAW year in review and annual awards Bill Dennison November 12–13, 2008 U.S. Geological Survey Baltimore, MD

2. Input to CBP Health and Restoration report • Updates for 2007–2008: • Water clarity • Dissolved oxygen • Chlorophyll a

3. Completed annual communication cycle

4. Summer review features prominently on CBP website

5. Released 2007 Report Card • 2nd year of the report card • Wider dissemination

6. Generated ecological forecast Repeat of previous years: • Anoxia = Poor conditions (1.7 ± 1.27 km3) • Hypoxia = Poor conditions (9.9 km3) • Microcystis = Low to moderate severity Added Prorocentrum forecast Heroes: Don Scavia, Dave Jasinski, Peter Tango, and Jon Anderson

7. Resolved Total Suspended Solids (TSS) issue • Issue: Discontinuity of statistical properties (i.e. apparent step-trend) observed in the TSS data. • Outcome: • “No smoking gun” • Likelymethodological transition in VA mainstem sample analysis. Heroes: Michael Williams, Tish Robertson, and Jeni Keisman

8. Explored water clarity decline Heroes: Claire Buchanan, Bill Romano, Renee Karrh, and Mike Lane • Decline in mainstem Bay and lower reaches of tributaries • 1980s: 30 to 40% of goal • 200s: 10 to 20% of goal • Newsletter underway

9. Contributions to Estuarine Research Federation meeting • Members of TMAW were well-represented at ERF in Providence, RI (Nov 2007) • Range of topics: • Phytoplankton IBI • Cyanobacteria • Picnoclines • Health index / Indicators, • Water clarity, forecasting etc Heroes: all of TMAW

10. Additional impacts/projects • Facilitated and edited feasibility report for 4D interpolation for Chesapeake Bay • Designed and programmed fortran module for DO and Chl a criteria assessment for Bay Program’s estuarine water quality model • Worked collaboratively on a comprehensive review of potential attainment of water clarity thresholds • Implemented Chesapeake Bay interpolator to calculate hypoxic and anoxic volumes Heroes: Jeni Keisman and Jake Goodwin

11. Future for TMAW Tasks: • More effective feedback to management: • Finer spatial and temporal scales • Ability to measure/track incremental improvements • Redesign monitoring (STAC and MASC feedback) • Feedback on what BMP working / not working • Water clarity decline (Long-term trends: Gang of “N”) • Improved communication and dissemination • regime shift : picoplankton and others • Existing commitments: report card, health and restoration report Logistics: • CBP restructure transition • Initiate joint TMAW – Non-tidal workgroup meetings

12. Old Chesapeake Bay Program Tidal Monitoring Analysis Workgroup Data Analysis Work Group Shed Dawg, CBP Dawg’s brother Darth Maw, T Maw’s Star Wars brother

13. Old Chesapeake Bay Program Totally Mundane And Worthless Dimwitted And Without Greatness Shed Dawg, CBP Dawg’s brother Darth Maw, T Maw’s Star Wars brother

14. Old Chesapeake Bay Program Totally Mundane And Worthless Nontidal Water Quality Workgroup + = Monitoring Analysis Sub Committee

15. Old Chesapeake Bay Program Totally Mundane And Worthless Nobody With Quick Wits + = Making Atrocious & Silly Conclusions

16. New and Improved Chesapeake Bay Program Making Atrocious & Silly Conclusions Monitoring & Modeling

17. New and Improved Chesapeake Bay Program Making Atrocious & Silly Conclusions Magnificant & Marvelous

18. Once upon a time, there were bunch of who had of data. They ed this data to produce a .

19. These scientists wereno and they figured that they could predict the future by simply connecting the .

20. But it turned out that they told some and they got from their colleagues, who said“Are you ?”

21. But the of this forecasting effort was the science thatresulted.

22. 2008 Forecast Awards For the we’re so bad, we quit forecasting logic of JJ Orth, “Let’s quit while we’re behind SAV forecast award” X

23. 2008 Forecast Awards For the wide error bar logic of Dave Jasinski, “Let’s cover all contingencies anoxia forecast award”

24. 2008 Forecast Awards For the can’t get any worse than last year logic of Don Scavia, “Let’s try, try again hypoxia forecast award”

25. 2008 Forecast Awards For the fuzzy logic of Jon Anderson, “Let’s roll the fuzzy dice for the Prorocentrum forecast award”

26. 2008 Forecast Awards For the no logic of Peter Tango, “Let’s see if we can get it wrong it every single time forecast award”

27. Gnarly Head Award Peter Tango Routinely attempts to tackle gnarly problems even when he should know better

28. Gollywobbler Award Jeni Keisman Enhancing TMAW capacity all while keeping her dissertation alive

29. Herding Cats Award Jake Goodwin Managing academic and agency personnel who randomly stray off (and sometimes bite or scratch)

30. 2007 Report Card Awards Maryland and Virginia sampling teams For sampling year round in all conditions For recording and checking data for precision and accuracy For collecting more data/person than anywhere known For processing samples and delivering them to analytical laboratories in a timely manner

31. A Maryland and Virginia sampling teams For sampling year round in all conditions For recording and checking data for precision and accuracy For collecting more data/person than anywhere known For processing samples and delivering them to analytical laboratories in a timely manner 2008 Report Card Awards

32. 2008 Report Card Awards Maryland and Virginia data analysts For recording and checking large data streams and highlighting issues as they develop For managing large and complex database For analyzing data for status and trends For delivering data in a timely manner for multiple requests

33. 2007 Report Card Awards Maryland and Virginia data analysts For recording and checking large data streams and highlighting issues as they develop For managing large and complex database For analyzing data for status and trends For delivering data in a timely manner for multiple requests A

34. 2007 Report Card Awards Report card team Analyzing past 20+years of data Rapid turnaround Feeding communication team (maps, time courses, etc.) Linking Bay health index to land use Applying analysis to 2010 Trust Fund

35. 2007 Report Card Awards Report card team Analyzing past 20+years of data Rapid turnaround Feeding communication team (maps, time courses, etc.) Linking Bay health index to land use Applying analysis to 2010 Trust Fund A

36. 2007 Report Card Awards Communication team Media event planning and execution Quality graphics and printed materials Developing web materials including on line graphics Help scientists frame questions and tell stories

37. 2007 Report Card Awards Communication team Media event planning and execution Quality graphics and printed materials Developing web materials including on line graphics Help scientists frame questions and tell stories A

38. 2007 Report Card Awards Sampling, analysis, report card and communication teams For accelerating data analyses without losing quality For producing multiple products throughout the year For recording and checking data for precision and accuracy For collecting, analyzing and interpreting huge amounts of data For effectively elevating the public conversation about Chesapeake Bay

39. 2007 Report Card Awards Sampling, analysis, report card and communication teams For accelerating data analyses without losing quality For producing multiple products throughout the year For recording and checking data for precision and accuracy For collecting, analyzing and interpreting huge amounts of data For effectively elevating the public conversation about Chesapeake Bay A+

40. Group Photo