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From the Paved State Back to the Garden State Mobility without Highways for New Jersey

Alain L. Kornhauser Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Transportation Research Program Princeton University Presented at PodCar Conference, Ithica, NY. From the Paved State Back to the Garden State Mobility without Highways for New Jersey. Background.

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From the Paved State Back to the Garden State Mobility without Highways for New Jersey

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  1. Alain L. Kornhauser Professor,Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Transportation Research Program Princeton University Presented at PodCar Conference, Ithica, NY From the Paved State Back to the Garden StateMobility without Highways for New Jersey

  2. Background • I’ve been dabbling in PRT for over 35 years • In many ways, I’m very disappointed in our lack of progress: • A long time ago: Exec. Director of APTA said: “Alain: PRT is the transportation system of the future… And Always will be!!!” • But we have made progress: • Morgantown has proven that it can be done • APMs are a standard of every modern airport • Automation and computer controls have become ubiquitous, reliable and cheap • There is broad movement towards energy independence and alternatives to the petroleum economy

  3. So… • Premise: • NJ in 2008 is very different from NJ in 1908 • A look at what might be NJ’s Mobility in 2108 (or before)

  4. let’s look at the automobile: Daimler, 1888 Looking Back • In the beginning, it takes a while

  5. Central Ave. Caldwell NJ c. 1908

  6. Bloomfield Ave. & Academy Rd. c. 1908 Before it was paved

  7. Muddy Bloomfield Ave. c. 1908

  8. Muddy Main St. (Rt. 38) Locke, NY. c. 1907

  9. Finally: Automobile Congestion 1968 - present

  10. Daimler, 1888 Morgantown, 1973 Starting to Look Forward

  11. 1888 1908 1988 1973 2073 So…

  12. http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/PRT_Of467F07/PRT_NJ_Orf467F07_FinalReport.pdfhttp://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/PRT_Of467F07/PRT_NJ_Orf467F07_FinalReport.pdf

  13. PRT as the Dominant Mode. What would it take? • Had my undergrad Transportation Systems Analysis class (Orf 467) looking at this for each of the past 3 years • Def. “Dominant Mode”: Serve >90% of all intra NJ trips + access to existing mass transit serving NYC and Phila • Def. “Serve”: Less than 5 minute walk to a station; stations all interconnected; all existing rail mass transit connected/

  14. Sketch Planning Process • Precisely geolocate all trip ends by purpose • Extensive use Google Earth and Msft. Virtual Earth to provide spatial reality perspective to trip end concentrations and Physical constraints • Manually locate all stations and interconnection • Analytically assign the trip end demand to stations and flow the trips on the interconnected network. • Manually iterate the location of stations and interconnection

  15. Basic NJ Transport Stats

  16. Briefly on Energy http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdf

  17. OPEC Cuts World Petroleum Demand Forecast, Nov 17,2008 EIA World oil Demand, Nov 12, 2008: 85.89 Mbpd

  18. Glouchester County

  19. Essex County

  20. Middlesex County

  21. Morris County

  22. Passaic County

  23. Sussex County

  24. Union County

  25. Warren County

  26. Bottom Line

  27. Conclusions • It’s a lot • It does a lot • It’s one design focused on existing land use / mobility patterns • We should be able to do better • Thank you alaink@princeton.edu www.princeton.edu/~alaink

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