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New Scenarios for EU Regions: The Latin Arc Perspective

Explore how ESPON's spatial analysis benefits policy makers, with new methodologies for quantitative assessment and foresight. Develop partnerships between scholars, policy makers, and EU officials to navigate post-crisis scenarios.

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New Scenarios for EU Regions: The Latin Arc Perspective

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  1. ESPON Workshop at the Open Days Brussels, 6 October 2010 ESPON provides regions with targeted analysis SPAN-3: Spatial Perspectives at Nuts-3 Level For the Latin Arc Roberto Camagni (Politecnico di Milano)

  2. The Team • Lead partner: Politecnico di Milano: • Project Coordinator: Prof. Roberto Camagni (Full Professor) • Project Manager: Antonio Affuso (Research Fellow) • Prof. Roberta Capello (Full Professor of Regional Economics) • Ugo Fratesi and Camilla Lenzi (Researchers) • Subcontractor for Scenario building: Jacques ROBERT (Tersyn) • Project Partner:Institut d'Estudis Regionals i Metropolitans de Barcelona (UAB): • Prof. Joan Trullén (Director - Tenure of Applied Economics) • Prof. Rafael Boix (Coordinator - Senior Lecturer) • Vittorio Galletto, Daniel Sánchez (PhD Students) Stakeholders: Députaciò de Barcelona, leader; Provincia di Torino; Département de l’Hérault.

  3. General goals to show how the general ESPON approach to spatial analysis can be useful to local policy makers; to build new methodologies and tools which could provide support to policy makers for quantitative assessment and foresight; to develop interesting and stimulating partnership processes between scholars, local-regional policy makers and public officials ,European functionaries in charge of EU regional policy.

  4. The general structure of the project

  5. New Scenarios for EU regions after the crisis • The “reference” scenario: considers emerging global contradictions and consequent structural breaks: • Demand based on debt in advanced countries, • Financialization of western economies and related risks, • BRICs supporting western consumption, real income and balance of payment • b) The perception of these structural changes will be different in the two main scenarios: • in the first scenario, changes will be perceived and even anticipated. The capacity to pro-act is large: pro-active scenario • In the second scenario, changes are not perceived by economic actors. Development assets will be more similar to the past, and risks of low development rates higher: re-active (defensive) scenario

  6. The new Reference Scenario • “Regionalized” globalization, with the large “triad” areas (Europe, America, Asia) more independent and more internally integrated • BRICs enter progressively in the medium and high technology game • The growth of real income in Europe will be more modest; • - Purchasing power of some groups will be particularly affected; • - “Regionalized” globalization processes will enable the recovery of manufacturing activities in Europe; • A number of new technologies will develop: nanotech, biotech, transport technologies, new materials - More importantly: a new paradigm will emerge: the “green economy”.. Many sectors touched: manufacturing, energy, transport, building and construction, tourism, agriculture (zero-km) Provides a new demand source, new jobs and a reduction in dependency on fossil fuels. It may boost a revival of endogenous growth in Europe

  7. The Reference Scenario in “Latin Arc” Territorial aspects of the reference scenario Regional disparities are likely to increase (two speed growth) Metro regions will host the advanced activities and R&D New manufacturing activities, benefiting from technological progress, will also locate in metro and second rank cities; Territorial impact in Latin Arc Differentiated impact, because of the heterogeneous regional structure; Benefit for Metropolitan areas with advanced functions; After recovery, moderate progress in tourism.

  8. Annual average GDP growth rates 2006 - 25

  9. GDP growth rates in the Reference Scenario 06-25

  10. Difference between Pro-active and Refer. scenarios

  11. Fine tuning on the Reference Scenario

  12. General policy suggestions • crucial support to the development of renewable energy sources and green technologies; • increase the stock and the diffusion of knowledge; • increase retention of young people, especially in rural areas; • support second rank cities and promote networks of smaller cities and towns; • integrate the Latin Arc with new and efficient nfrastructure • - favour the development of complementarities and partnerships between the European Mediterranean regions and countries of the southern and eastern parts of the Mediterranean Basin.

  13. Policy suggestions for the Latin Arc Competence poles Knowledge platforms Identity platforms Infrastructure platforms Barcelona Orbital Rail Highways of the sea Infrastructure integration of the Latin Arc

  14. Policy suggestions for Barcelona and Catalunia

  15. THANKS Many thanks for your attention! Roberto CamagniBEST – Department of Building, Environment, Science and TechnologyPolitecnico di MilanoPiazza Leonardo da Vinci 32 - 20133 MILANOtel: +39 02 2399.2744  - 2745fax: +39 02 2399.2710roberto.camagni@polimi.itwww.economiaterritoriale.it

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