Energy Assurance

1. Energy Assurance Gil Weigand Strategic Programs Computing and Computational Sciences Directorate December 10, 2007

2. U.S. Energy Production, Distribution and Consumption System is Complex • Today the system is tightly balanced between supply and demand • Disruptions impact economy, jobs, & U.S. competitiveness, and may lead to a recession Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Energy and Efficiency, U.S. Energy Flows 2002 (UCRL-TR-129990-02) https://eed.llnl.gov/flow/02flow.php

3. Avoidance of Costly Energy Disruptions = Energy Assurance Energy Assurance is:The ability to obtain, without costly disruption, the energy required by the United States in assured, economically viable ways to satisfy residential, commercial, and transportation requirements. Disruptions to the Energy We Need Are Inevitable. You Cannot Eliminate Disruptions! You Can, However, Make Their Impact Small.

4. Energy Assurance Energy Production Distribution Consumption National Security Economic Security Environmental Security Energy Security Energy Assurance Energy Assurance Has Three Critical Parts Energy Assurance Is Also A Complex Relationship Among Four Security Themes

5. Energy Assurance Within U.S. Control National Security Economic Security Environmental Security Energy Security Out of U.S. Control Not All Elements Within These Security Themes Are Under U.S. Control

6. Prevailing Conditions Today • U.S. Energy Supply vs. Demand is very “tightly wound” and increasingly lacks the flexibility necessary to cope with inevitable disruptions and competition for supply • Environmental Security increasingly becoming a factor in energy consumption • All major candidates for President have stated the importance of a more independent energy supply and more efficient consumption and distribution of energy for the United States • The threats to Energy Assurance for the United States are increasing and are increasingly outside of U.S. control • Economic Growth and Energy Assurance are tightly linked • Cyber-based systems are perceived by the public as having a poor record for security and the protection of private information

7. Why An Energy Assurance Technology-Based Effort Now? • The U.S. Public is Poised to Demand Energy Assurance • Technology-Based Solutions Are the Most Viable Option for the Central Focus for Achieving Energy Assurance in the Near Term • They offer the best opportunity to balance Energy, National, Economic, and Environmental Security • They depend upon the existence of a strong U.S. science and technology program • They are completely in U.S. control • They engage a wide and diverse science, technology and production workforce • They address all energy sectors • They address production, distribution, and consumption • They fuel renewed growth and entrepreneurship • They are enabling; not defensive

8. There is no “Silver Bullet” The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly Balanced Between Supply and Demand HarmfulDisruptions (status-quo)

9. recursive Fortunately Small Changes Have an Impact on Energy Assurance Energy Assurance A Small Change Will Have a Big Impact Exa-Scale Will Introduce Systems Level Modeling The U.S. Energy System is Very Tightly Balanced Between Supply and Demand

10. Energy Assurance:Path Forward for High Impact Industry Will Deliver the Broad Solutions Create the New Fix the Legacy Solutions, Jobs, $$ Solutions, Jobs, $$ IPO Companies Demonstrations Investment Capital Model (VCs drive business to IPO) Dream-Team Model (Industry leads partnership) Science, Technology, and Innovation Exa-Scale Computing by 2015 and 20 by 20

11. Achieving Energy Assurance-- Bet on a Science, Technology, and Innovation -- • The successful strategy requires a prolific S&T activity targeting all energy sectors to drive innovation and technology-based solutions • The successful strategy uses computer technology to drive an aggressive pace—2 decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance • The successful strategy employs high dependence on cyber-based control and information systems • The successful strategy links the S&T activity with industry to drive energy assurance whether production-, distribution-, or consumption-based solutions into the marketplace

12. Success Model for S&T Focus for EnergyThe Essential Three Parts Are: Modeling andComputer Systems Science andTechnology Cyber SecureInformation

13. The successful strategy uses computer technology to drive an aggressive pace—2 decades—for achieving U.S. Energy Assurance • 103 simulation & computer capability advancement = innovation cycle (3 to 4 years) • Provide S&T budget stability suitable to support recursive cycle of innovation • 106 simulation & computer capability advancement = systems engineering development cycle (8 to 9 years) • Provide Demonstration and Deployment budget suitable to support recursive cycle of systems engineering development

14. The successful strategy employs high dependence on cyber-based control and information systems • Perfectly secure system is not achievable • Augment traditional device- and filtering- based protection methods with aggressive use of real-time threat detection • Systems have built in capability advancement • Learning • Knowledge discovery • Threat isolation • Performance / Speed / Scope • Systems have built in capability to capture increased knowledge and understanding

15. Physical Science and Technology Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities Bioenergy Geosciences/Climate Modeling andComputer Systems Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle Combustion Science and Technology Energy Storage Nanoscience Cyber SecureInformation Superconductivity

16. Science and Technology Drivers in Key Science Domains

17. Modeling and Computer Systems Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities PetaOps Computers &ExaOps Architectures Simulation Tools Cyber SecureInformation Zoning and Problem Setup 106 Processor Algorithms Modeling andComputer Systems Parallel Graphics and Display of Results Pathforward Engineering Science and Technology Numerical Mathematics

18. Cyber Secure Information Disciplines to Target for Innovation Opportunities Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting Data Integrity Science andTechnology Knowledge Discovery Graphs, Statistics, and Linear Programming Cyber Secure Information Real-Time Algorithms for Learning & Detection Simulators Modeling andComputer Systems Data Analysis

19. Goal of This S&T • Apply novel S&T investigation simultaneously among • Physical R&D in areas (e.g., Transportation, Renewables, or Nuclear Energy), • High Performance Computing and Modeling, and • Cyber Secure Information to develop new or accelerate significantly recent technology advances with direct and near term application to Energy Assurance • The S&T will treat these three central focuses as a whole versus the traditional independence • This approach is novel and will drive towards technology options that have a physical and virtual representation with cyber secure information as an integral element.

20. Energy Assurance Timeline Energy AssuranceAssessment • 2010-2019 – 1st decadeCreate Science Base for Sustained, Decade-Long Technology Demonstration and Deployment In All Energy SectorsDemonstrate Technical Feasibility of Reaching Energy Assurance for US by 20291/3-way Based on Early Technology Innovation, Demonstration, and Deployment • 2020-2029 – 2nd decadeTechnology Demonstrations and DeploymentsAchieve Energy Assurance 20years High Flexibility / Resilience 10 years Low Today Low High Security / Independence