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Planning and Decision-Making

Planning and Decision-Making. http://www.ideachampions.com/weblogs/decision-making-processes1.jpg. How do human factors influence the CIMIC process?. My background. 1998 M.A. Political Science – Münster Social Science Center Berlin 2004 Ph.D. 2008 Federal Academy for Security Policy

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Planning and Decision-Making

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  1. Planning and Decision-Making http://www.ideachampions.com/weblogs/decision-making-processes1.jpg How do human factors influence the CIMIC process? Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  2. My background • 1998 M.A. Political Science – Münster • Social Science Center Berlin • 2004 Ph.D. • 2008 Federal Academy for Security Policy • 2010 Regensburg University of Applied Science • 1997 Scientific analyst for security organization • 2003 IABG HF Team Program Manager • Consultant Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  3. Take home messages • Human factors are relevant, crucial, and often neglected. • Planning and decision-making in CIMIC is problem solving. • CI ≠ MI - SOP business. • CIMIC needs a shared situational awareness. • CIMIC means bridging the cultural differences. Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  4. Way ahead • What is Human Factor? • Cognitive psychology: action organization! • Intentions, objectives, and actions?! • Situational awareness – common and shared?! • Logic of failure…and more. • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 • Empirical Findings – Design Groups • Conclusion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  5. Human Factor is… Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  6. Way ahead • What is Human Factor? • Cognitive psychology: action organization! • Intentions, objectives, and actions?! • Situational awareness – common and shared?! • Logic of failure…and more. • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 • Empirical Findings – Design Groups • Conclusion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  7. More Psychology in Political Science • Information processing “…is wide open to irrational, nonrational intuitive, and affective influences, biases, and errors, especially in environments and issue-areas like international politics where uncertainty and complexity prevail.“(1) • „Ich halte die mangelnde Aufmerksamkeit der IB für diese Theorietradition, die manchmal bis zur totalen Abwehr reicht, für einen großen Fehler.“(2) • Situation factors: • Time constraints, information constraints, ambiguity, familiarity, accountability, risk, stress, dynamic vs. static-setting, interactive setting (3) 2(Krell 2003:357) 3(Mintz&DeRouen Jr. 2010:26) 1(Vertzberger 1990:343) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  8. Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  9. Goal Elaboration Intentions Task / Problem Information Gathering Perception Environment Mental Modelling Prognosis Group (Protocol-)Memory Planning Frictions Competence Decision / Acting Effect Control Time Pressure Emotions (Self-)Reflection Basis of the Modeling Approach: Theory of Human Action Organization (Dörner) Internal Factors External Factors Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  10. Goal Elaboration Information Gathering Lagefeststellung Observe Mental Modelling Prognosis Planung Orient Planning Decide Decision / Acting Befehlsgebung Act Effect Control Kontrolle (Self-)Reflection Dörner, Boyd, and HDV Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  11. The Policy Cycle Policy Cycle (John 1998, Sabatier 1999, McCormick 2006, Richardson 2006, Hague & Harrop 2007) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  12. Way ahead • What is Human Factor? • Cognitive psychology: action organization! • Intentions, objectives, and actions?! • Situational awareness – common and shared?! • Logic of failure…and more. • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 • Empirical Findings – Design Groups • Conclusion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  13. Intentions, objectives, actions Safety Security Certainty Power Cohesion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  14. Intentions, objectives, actions Competencies / Skills Reliability Protection Alliance / Coalition Expectations / Scenarios Safety Security Certainty Power Cohesion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  15. Intentions, objectives, actions Electoral Success Economic Welfare Domestic Support Building Coalition Social Welfare Standards Infrastructure Safety Security Certainty Power Cohesion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  16. Intentions, objectives, actions Electoral Success Economic Welfare Domestic Support Building Coalition Social Welfare Standards Infrastructure Safety Security Certainty Power Cohesion Past / History Start Situation Available Operators / Plan Instrumentality Goal Situation Estimated Time Remaining Time Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  17. Intentions, objectives, actions Electoral Success Economic Welfare Domestic Support Building Coalition Social Welfare Standards Infrastructure Safety Security Certainty Power Cohesion Urgency Importance Competence Action Tendency Past / History Start Situation Available Operators / Plan Instrumentality Goal Situation Estimated Time Remaining Time Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  18. Intentions, objectives, actions Economic cooperation in a specific domain Political cooperation in a specific domain Military cooperation in a specific domain Electoral Success Economic Welfare Domestic Support Building Coalition Social Welfare Standards Infrastructure Safety Security Certainty Power Cohesion Urgency Importance Competence Action Tendency Past / History Start Situation Available Operators / Plan Instrumentality Goal Situation Estimated Time Remaining Time Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  19. Way ahead • What is Human Factor? • Cognitive psychology: action organization! • Intentions, objectives, and actions?! • Situational awareness – common and shared?! • Logic of failure…and more. • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 • Empirical Findings – Design Groups • Conclusion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  20. Situation Awareness - Endsley http://www.google.de/url?source=imgres&ct=img&q=http://images.wikia.com/psychology/images/6/61/Endsley-SA-model.jpg&sa=X&ei=RGvATc9Ljca0Buqy3PIO&ved=0CAQQ8wc4Aw&usg=AFQjCNEi4OkT4z0EeoC5fI3sd5oYutplGg (Endsley 2003) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  21. Common understanding Expert Group1 Expert Group 2 Expert Group 3 Expert Group 5 Expert Group 4 + + + + = Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  22. Shared understanding Committee Committee Committee Committee Committee + + + + = Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  23. Common Shared + + + + + + + + + + + + = = = Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  24. Way ahead • What is Human Factor? • Cognitive psychology: action organization! • Intentions, objectives, and actions?! • Situational awareness – common and shared?! • Logic of failure…and more. • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 • Empirical Findings – Design Groups • Conclusion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  25. Goal Elaboration Thematic Vagabonding Information Gathering Information Channelling Mental Modelling Reductive Hypothesis Prognosis Linear Extrapolation Planning Plan Optimism Decision / Acting Over-Dosage Effect Control Neglect (Self-)Reflection Lack of Lessons Learned Logic of Failure (Dörner, Schaub et al.) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  26. Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  27. Group Think • B-2 • Provocative Situational Context • High stress from external threats with low hope of a better solution than the leader’s • Low self-esteem temporarily induced by: • Recent failures that make members’ inadequacies salient. • Excessive Difficulties on current decision-making tasks that lower each member’s sense of self-efficacy • Moral dilemmas: apparent lack of feasible alternatives except ones that violate ethical standards • etc. A Decision makers Constitute a Cohesive Group • B-1 • Structural Faults of Organization • Insulation of the group • Lack of tradition of imperial leadership • Lack of norms requiring methodical procedures • Homogeneity of members social background and ideology • etc. Concurrence-Seeking • D • Symptoms of Defective • Decision-making • Gross omissions in survey of objectives • Gross omission in surevey of alternatives • Poor information search • Selective bias in processing information at hand • Failure to reconsinder originally rejected alternatives • Failure to examine some major costs and risks of preferred choice • Failure to work out detailed implementation, monitoring and contingency plans • C • Symptoms of Groupthink • Type I: Overestimating the • group • Illusion of invulnerability • Belief in inherent morality of the group • Type II: Closed-mindedness • Collective Rationalizations • Stereotypes of out groups • Type III: Pressures toward uniformity • Self-censorship • illusion of unanimanity • Direct pressure on dissenters • Self-appointed mind guards E Low Probability of Successful Outcome (Janis 1989:59) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  28. Way ahead • What is Human Factor? • Cognitive psychology: action organization! • Intentions, objectives, and actions?! • Situational awareness – common and shared?! • Logic of failure…and more. • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 • Empirical Findings – Design Groups • Conclusion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  29. NNEC (p. 64) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  30. NNEC (p.66) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  31. NNEC (p.70) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  32. Way ahead • What is Human Factor? • Cognitive psychology: action organization! • Intentions, objectives, and actions?! • Situational awareness – common and shared?! • Logic of failure…and more. • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 • Empirical Findings – Design Groups • Conclusion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  33. Badke-Schaub / Frankenberg Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293. Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  34. Cooperative solution search Prof. Dr. Bresinsky Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

  35. Deficient goal analysis Prof. Dr. Bresinsky Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

  36. Successful solution search Prof. Dr. Bresinsky Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

  37. Successful solution decision Prof. Dr. Bresinsky Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.

  38. Deficient solution decision Badke-Schaub, P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing and modelling cooperative design by the critical situation method. In: Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293. Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  39. Way ahead • What is Human Factor? • Cognitive psychology: action organization! • Intentions, objectives, and actions?! • Situational awareness – common and shared?! • Logic of failure…and more. • Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2 • Empirical Findings – Design Groups • Conclusion Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  40. Take home messages • Human factors are relevant, crucial, and often neglected. • Planning and decision-making in CIMIC is problem solving. • CI ≠ MI - SOP business. • CIMIC needs a shared situational awareness. • CIMIC means bridging the cultural differences. Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  41. Questions / Discussion http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/left_right.jpg Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  42. Back Up Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  43. CI / CS type of reaction (Thomas) • Ignorant • Universalist • Man of action • Potenzializer Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  44. Phases of cultural shock (Oberg 1960) • Honeymoon • Crisis • Recovery • Adjustment Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  45. „Intercultural competence requires an ability to move beyond sterotypes and to respond to the individual.“ (Lustig / Koester 2003, S. 154) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  46. NNEC (p. 64) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  47. NNEC (p.66) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

  48. NNEC (p.70) Prof. Dr. Bresinsky

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