Rural Economic Features and Performance—A Seventh District Overview

1. Rural Economic Features and Performance—A Seventh District Overview Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago October 26, 2011

2. Roadmap • Performance • Population • Income • Unemployment • Economic Structure • Agriculture • Manufacturing • Retirement/recreation • Education • Challenges and Opportunities

3. Population

4. U.S. population still urbanizing

5. Population “rural” is fairly close across U.S. regions

6. Population growth varies much across counties Source: ERS “Atlas of Rural and Small-town America.”

7. “Ruralness” varies greatly; being adjacent to highways and metro areas has mattered to growth (historically) Source: ERS, “Atlas of Rural and Small-town America”

8. District and Wisconsin population

9. Indiana and Iowa population

10. Illinois and Michigan

11. Income

12. Per capita income in metro vs. non-metro in U.S. largely same spread since 1969

13. Economic conditions vary Persistent poverty 1970-2000 Source: ERS, “Atlas”

14. District incomes apace since 1969, while WI moved ahead this decade

15. Michigan is faring well lately, while IA is catching up to lagging decade(s)

16. Non-metro counties have also lagged in IL and IN, with recent gains

17. Unemployment

18. Economic conditions vary Unemployment 2010 Source: ERS, “Atlas”

19. Unemployment runs apace in the District, with WI non-metro URs usually higher

20. Non-metro URs also higher in IA and MI

21. IL non-metro has been “spot on” while non-metro runs higher in Indiana

22. Roadmap • Performance • Population • Income • Unemployment • Economic Structure • Agriculture • Manufacturing • Retirement/recreation • Education • Challenges and Opportunities

23. Agriculture

24. Farm productivity

25. 7th District Crop Yield Indexes(1964=100) Corn Soybeans

26. Real Crop Prices

27. The farm economy recovery – the basis of rising asset prices?

28. Real farm earnings have been leading other sectors in most District states

29. Indiana and Illinois

30. Iowa and Michigan

31. Farm Operator Income—Over time, as farms have dwindled and consolidated, proprietors’ income has grown, and non-farm income has become increasingly important

32. Many small farms subsist on non-farm income—either with one or more working non-farm jobs, or “hobby farms”

33. Only large farms and very small farms are growing;Most farmland accounted for by very large farms Source: ERS

34. Manufacturing

35. Farm dependent counties (20 Percent of more of income); Mfg dependent counties (30 percent or more)

36. Wisconsin non-metros have fared “well” in mfg. And value-added mfg. in food processing:

37. Manufacturing Share of Jobs, 1969; Non-metro counties

38. Manufacturing Share of Jobs, 2009; Non-metro counties

39. Still, manufacturing jobs shrink in relative importance…..so rural areas remain challenged

40. Declining jobs have fared “less worse” in District’s non-metro areas since 1969

41. Michigan has fared the worst, Iowa the best

42. Illinois rural manufacturing has performed especially poorly, losing one-half since 1969

43. Manufacturing is no exception—education/skills matter to keeping or growing jobs

44. Education pays, be it services or goods production, metro or non-metro

45. Educational attainment higher in metropolitan counties in U.S., with gains in both places

46. Low-education non-metro counties are rare in the Midwest

47. Nonetheless, few non-metro counties exceed their own statewide average in attainment.Share with Some College Education,Non-metro Counties

48. Retirement/Recreation

49. Population Growth by Amenities

50. Recreation/retirement counties