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Ensemble Task

Ensemble Task. Isidora Jankov. Collaborators: NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory. Ensemble Task AOP12 Activities . Work done late in AOP11, DTC contribution to SREF post-processing.

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Ensemble Task

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  1. Ensemble Task Isidora Jankov Collaborators: NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory

  2. Ensemble Task AOP12 Activities Work done late in AOP11, DTC contribution to SREF post-processing

  3. Work performed late in AOP11NAEFS Bias Correction and Downscaling effort • High-resolution version of SREF (SREFx) was recently implemented operationally at EMC. • SREFx at 16km (NMM, NMMB)/17km (ARW) resolution • Significant resolution upgrade, but still missing small scale variability needed for NWS forecast grids • Downscaling to the resolution of the NDFD (~5km) should allow greater use of NCEP SREF output in the production of forecasts Courtesy of Brian Etherton, Jun Du and Tara Jensen

  4. Bias Correction and Downscaling • Bias Correction accomplished by taking the mean forecast of each model core (ARW, NMM, etc.) sub-ensemble of the NCEP SREF and comparing it to the NAM analysis valid at the same time. • Downscale by comparing the RTMA analysis (GRID 259, like GRID 197, 1073x689, 5.079km) with the NAM analysis valid at the same time (10m wind,2m temperature and humidity). FORECASTS ANALYSES BC NMM NAM RTMA DS NMMB ARW Approach used in NAEFS Courtesy of Brian Etherton, Jun Du and Tara Jensen

  5. Bias Correction and Downscaling • Recursive averaging method is used(~30 day mean) • Bias-Correction (in operations) and Downscaling (DTC testing) from NAEFS • Bias corrected and downscaled fields for each member • Also: downscaled forecasts of ensemble min, max, mean, spread, 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles. FORECASTS ANALYSES BC NMM NAM RTMA DS NMMB ARW Courtesy of Brian Etherton, Jun Du and Tara Jensen

  6. Implementation of downscaling at EMC • Downscaling code used for NAEFS ported to DTC • Testing/evaluation of code application to existing NCEP SREF output showed forecast improvement • DTC code sent to EMC (Jun Du) for application to the new 16km/17km NCEP SREF • Code implemented by EMC in approximately 2 days, with downscaled forecasts being produced since December (Presentation at AMS Annual Meeting ) Courtesy of Brian Etherton, Jun Du and Tara Jensen

  7. Raw SREFxvs Bias corrected SREFx (Nov. 10 – 30, 2011, against NDAS) Implementation of bias correction at EMC Ens mean fcst of T2m: RMSE Probfcst of T2m: RPSS (12km NAM as ref) Courtesy of Jun Du, NOAA/EMC

  8. Testing/Evaluation at DTC - Results As implemented at DTC, the bias correction reduces the RMSE of 2m T forecasts & the downscaling adds further improvement. Courtesy of Brian Etherton, Jun Du and Tara Jensen ARW and NMM members of SREF 2011 – 0900 UTC Initialization Compared to RTMA Analyses

  9. Ensemble Task AOP12 Activities

  10. NCEP SREF Functionally Similar Environment • Activity description: Define & establish scalable, flexible , highly portable heterogeneous computational Functionally Similar Environment, (FSE) to NCEP SREF operations. • Objectives and Accomplishments: • Develop FSE acceptance evaluation criteria in collaboration w/ NCEP • Establish portable integration of NCEP SREF components & DTC platforms • Participate in updates of NCEP NEMS code, SREF scripts & data cross management • Continually support research, DET T&E workflow & future R2O integrations • Analyze the differences &integrate NCEP operative &DET research workflows • Work closely w/ EMC to deploy computational &research innovations. Courtesy of Eugene Mirvis

  11. Major Accomplishment: • NCEP SREF v6.0.0 adapted by DTC • DTC now has functionally similar • environment for 4-5 of 6 SREF modules

  12. 6. ACADEMIA SUPPORT & INNOVATIONS • DEVELOPMENT OF THE FSE ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA DTC/DET NOAA ESRL Conventions & Criteria Of Functional Similarity New Generation of The Ensemble Testbed OPS ENVIRON-MENT TESTBED ENVIRON-MENT ~ 60 UNIVERSITIES 2. PORTABLE INTEGRATION of OPS & Research Computing Platforms IBM CRAY XSEDE SGI LINUX TBD 4. SUPPORT RESEARCH, T&E WORKFLOW 5. MERGING OPS AND RESEARCH WORKFLOWS 3. PARTICIPATE IN UPDATES, OPS CODE & DATA MANAGEMENT 12

  13. NCEP NEMS – DTC Ensemble Workflows Merging Analysis External data processing NEMS Post Visualize & Verify Ensemble Initialization Ensemble Post Stochastic Forcing Perturbation Component NEMS Apps Layer Alternative Obs. data NEMS entry RIP4 BIAS Correct & downscale GrADS GSI GEMPAK • Standard • Obs. data NPS IC/LBC perturb NCL UPP Cold start NEMS/WRF Terrestrial DATA Ensemble post and product generation Land surface perturb YES GLOB ? MET Shared Physics MESO ? Gridded Data: NAM,GFS, RUC, snow, ice, SST Land surface init NO NEMS I/O Grid-vs-Grid VSDB/FVS Grid-vs-Obs VSDB/FVS - - not used yet at NCEP

  14. Ensemble Task AOP12 Activities

  15. HMT Winter Experiment • Activity description: • Use HMT Winter Experiment real-time system to test the impacts of alternate initial perturbation techniques (including the dynamical downscaling of global perturbations) • Test alternate ensemble perturbation techniques (cloud microphysical parameterizations • Presentation at NWA Annual. • Accomplishments: • Plans developed • NWA presentation delivered • Issues: This task has been affected by changes in staffing which resulted in a significant delay.

  16. HMT Activities AOP12 1 2 Evaluate the impact of changes in microphysics Evaluate the impact of initial perturbation changes 2012 Tasks necessary to be completed for 2013 activities.

  17. Impact of Microphysics on 2010-2011 HMT NMM ARW Using Attributes from MODE Objects Difference (Fcst-Obs) in Near Peak Intensity in MODE Obj (mm) HMT NAM GFS • 90% Intensity show over forecast of precip for ARW-Fer and ARW-MY members especially at higher thresholds – which means when it rains it pours in these members Ferrier Color groups Different Microphysics Milbrant-Yau Thompson Optimal Object Threshold (mm) > 25.4 Intense Cores Courtesy of Tara Jensen

  18. Initial Perturbations Approach Legend Perturbation Global Model Analysis interpolated on LAM grid Global Model Forecast LAM Forecast 00Z 06Z Forecast Time XaL = XfL + (XaG – XfG)

  19. Proposed Activities for 2013

  20. Ensembles AOP 2013 Proposed Activities

  21. Ensemble Proposed AOP 2013 Activities HMT CONTEXT SREF CONTEXT 1 3 2&4 • Evaluate impact of changes in initial conditions in context of SREF • Evaluate impact of HMT microphysics in context of SREF • Evaluate impact of increased resolution (16 vs. 9 km SREF) • 4. Evaluate the impact of mixed microphysics by optimally combining • HMT and SREF runs.

  22. Verification Tressa L. Fowler

  23. Verification AOP 2012 Activities

  24. Goals Promote easy, consistent, correct verification across the NWP community, especially in operations where there is the greatest potential for impact. Create a cohesive team of scientists and software engineers engaged in challenging, interesting, rewarding work.

  25. Accomplishments Software Development • MET TC • MADIS data support • Ensemble spread skill • GRIB2 • Series analysis tool Testing and Evaluation support • HMT verification • MMET cases Community support

  26. Series Analysis Tool  Frequency Bias Gilbert Skill Score Happy Users 

  27. Verification Support of HMT Capability was added to METViewer: User can constrain aggregation using Base Rate (aka, observed relative frequency). This feature helps users focus on model skill for meaningful events without having to constrain on an event-by-event basis Increases analysis speed and relevance HMT Ensemble Mean No constraint Base Rate > 0.02

  28. Verification Implementations Confidence Tests Box-and-whiskers now on most FVS plots (thanks to Keith Brill of HPC) Slide excerpted from Geoff DiMego EMC Verification Website (intranet only): http://emc-ls-sand02.ncep.noaa.gov/EMC_VSDB_verif/index.cgi

  29. Verification AOP 2013 Activities

  30. Next Year Software Development – Internal • Enhancements to MET TC in support of HWRF testing • Series analysis tool testing and enhancements • METViewer GUI redesign Software Development – External • Satellite data and cloud verification • Complete MODE GUI • Land Surface Model evaluation capability Testing and Evaluation support • HMT Evaluation • Use of MET TC for HWRF evaluations • Additional MMET cases • Radiation scheme evaluation

  31. Community Support • Yearly tutorial, with HWRF tutorial if funded • Updated online tutorial • MET Help • Verification lectures at conferences and workshops

  32. MET TC Development Hurricane T&E development Community TC development

  33. MODE GUICapability developed outside DTC but will be leveraged for inclusion in community software!

  34. Track Error Rank of Candidate Model vs. 3 Operational Models

  35. Leveraging SURFRAD • Development of SURFRAD ingest underway • Useful for radiation scheme evaluations • Land surface model verification • Solar forecast evaluation for DOE project

  36. Conclusions • Some work will carry over to 2013, due to staffing changes. • 2013 will be a year of rebuilding. • We accomplished much in 2012. • Our 2013 planned work reaches into new areas • More opportunities to assist with R2O • More learning opportunities for our staff

  37. Director’s Office & Visitor Program Louisa Nance

  38. Director’s Office AOP 2013 Activities

  39. Director’s Office Staff AOP 2012 • National Director (Kuo) 0.5FTE • Assistant Director (Nance) 0.55 FTE • JNT • Management (Brown) 0.1 FTE • Budget support (Jensen) 0.25 FTE • Support staff for community activities (Johnson) 0.5 FTE • GSD • Management (Toth) 0.1 FTE • Budget support (Etherton/Bernardet & Admin Asst) 0.25 FTE AOP 2013 • National Director (Kuo) 0.5FTE • Assistant Director (Nance) 0.55 FTE • JNT • Management (Brown) 0.1 FTE • Budget support (Jensen) 0.25 FTE • Support staff for community activities (Zarlingo) 0.3 FTE • GSD • Management (Toth) 0.3 FTE • Budget support (Etherton/Bernardet & Admin Asst) 0.30 FTE

  40. External Meetings AOP 2012 • 3 Workshops • 3 Tutorials • 4 Governance meetings AOP 2013 • 1Workshop • 1 Tutorial • 4 Governance meetings

  41. DTC Visitor Program Framework for engaging the research community in projects directed at improving NWP, with an eye towards eventually improving operational forecasts

  42. DTC Visitor Program Supports visitors to work w/ the DTC to test new forecasting & verification techniques, models & model components for NWP • PI project – up to 2 months salary & travel & per diem • Graduate student project - up to 1 yr temp living per diem stipend & travel expenses for student to work w/ DTC &/or one of its partners + travel & per diem for up to 2 2-wk visits to the location of the student by project PI

  43. Current DTC Visitors

  44. Future DTC Visitors

  45. AOP 2012 Visitor Funds • EC chair expressed concern over allocating all of the AOP 2012 funds budgeted for visitor program due to AOP 2013 funding uncertainties • NSF funds cannot be reprogrammed to cover other DTC activities, so DTC moved forward with awarding 5 new visitor projects • Estimate new projects will require only ~15-20 K from the NOAA AOP 2012 funding • For continued NSF support, will be important to show NOAA matching, so plan to pursue off-cycle visitor proposals consistent with DTC priorities once we have a better picture of the AOP 2013 funding • Demonstrating NOAA matching for visitor program will be important for future proposals to NSF for both the visitor program and potential Post-doctoral Scientist Program

  46. Potential new activities Following new activities currently fall in the 85-100 % scenario

  47. ECMWF-like Visitor Tools ($128K) Background: ECMWF has an interactive meteorological software application that allows researchers to easily prepare & execute research experiments. Scope: Investigate current capabilities & consider options for building & expanding capabilities to easily prepare & run research experiments using NCEP’s models. Requirements analysis: • Identify user community (skills, needs) • Identify system components adaptable to these needs • Identify hardware, software & data needs & resources • Identify documentation & training needs • Preliminary system design Planning requires EMC staff participation in this info gathering stage!

  48. Post-doctoral Scientist Program ($151K) Motivation: Mechanism for engaging next generation scientists in research focused on improving operational forecasts Proposed format: • Gather information from EMC on key areas for which they are interested in contributions from the research community • Applicants submit proposals for projects focused on an identified key area • Successful applicant would reside at EMC in order to work closely with EMC staff and gain better understanding of operational requirements

  49. Summary • Activities that engage the NWP community and keep the community informed about DTC activities are important to full-filling the DTC mission • Need to make sure we don’t overlook the importance of these activities and determine which types are most effective

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