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Planning for Uncertainty

Planning for Uncertainty. Duncan Green (@fp2p) Oxfam March 2014. In development, some systems are more or less linear . But many are not. So is Traditional Planning a good use of our time?. For. Against. Missing new windows of opportunity Weakens feedback loops to outside world

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Planning for Uncertainty

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  1. Planning for Uncertainty Duncan Green (@fp2p) Oxfam March 2014

  2. In development, some systems are more or less linear

  3. But many are not

  4. So is Traditional Planning a good use of our time? For Against Missing new windows of opportunity Weakens feedback loops to outside world Delusions of control Leads to lying • Allocating $ • Building common goals and approaches • Evaluating performance against the plan • Accountability

  5. Planning for Uncertainty • Fast Feedback • Focus on problems not solutions • Rules of thumb > best practice • Enabling Environment > specifics • Fail faster (be a venture capitalist) • Convening and brokering • Connected people • Results for grown-ups (counting what counts; put more L in your MEL)

  6. Thoughts on the Report • Love the use of ‘reflective gaming’ • Mixed feelings on Flexible and Forward-Looking Decision Making (FFDM) • Good on discontinuity, adaptive capacity, pol economy and ‘wiggle room’ • Doesn’t explicitly cover multiple experiments, PDIA, shocks as WoOs • Importance of Fast Feedback: ‘present-looking’ more useful than forward looking! • Where’s the military on this?

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