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Programme Analysis

Programme analysis prioritizes road projects yearly based on budget limits, using standards to select optimal projects and maximizing benefits through life cycle analysis. Evaluate NPV, prioritize projects, and allocate funds efficiently.

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Programme Analysis

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  1. Programme Analysis

  2. Programme Analysis • Objective: prioritise candidate road projects in each year within annual budget constraint • Annual budgets obtained from strategic maintenance plan Programme Analysis is concerned with the preparation of single or multi-year road work and expenditure programmes under specified budget constraints.

  3. Multi-Year work programme • Method: use specified standards to screen network & identify candidate projects, e.g. • road sections which exceed specified condition • roads with inadequate capacity • pavements which need strengthening • upgrade pavements with high traffic volumes

  4. Procedure • Select candidate road projects • Determine maintenance or improvement options • Specify budget limits & periods • Optimise using selected objective • Produce optimal list of projects for budget period

  5. Multi-year Programme ... • Method • Life Cycle Analysis • Budget Period Analysis • Objective functions • maximise NPV • maximise road network condition improvement • Constraints • budget limits (capital, recurrent, etc.)

  6. Analysis Procedure Total Enumeration Life Cycle Analysis Minimise Cost NPV IRI Inputs Results Incremental Analysis Budget Period Analysis

  7. Capital Budgeting Independent Projects: • unrelated road projects e.g. from different parts of the country, Mutually Exclusive Projects: • alternatives to one project where only one can be selected.

  8. Capital Budgeting Rules When sufficient funds are available • Select all independent projects with NPV > 0 • Select mutually exclusive project alternatives with the highest NPV When there is a shortage of funds; • Select independent projects with the highest NPV/Cost ratio • Select mutually exclusive projects using the incremental NPV/Cost method.

  9. Prioritisation

  10. Incremental Analysis

  11. Efficiency Frontier • BENEFITS Opt 4 Opt 5 Opt 3 Opt 2 Opt 1 Opt 0 • COST

  12. Efficiency Frontier BENEFITS A4 A5 A3 A2 Priority by slope: 1. B1 2. A1 3. A2 4. A3 5. B3 6. A4 7. A5 B3 B4 B1 B2 A1 A, B - Independent Projects 1,2,3,.. - Mutually Exclusive PROJECT COST

  13. Budget Period Analysis • Life Cycle analysis involves long term predictions • Assumes budgets are committed long term • Total benefits assume future periodic maintenance will be done • Budget period analysis quantifies relative benefits within short term periods

  14. BUDGET PERIOD ANALYSIS Budget Period Analysis Budget Period IRI Estimated Benefits TIME

  15. Multi-Year Work Programme Road No. (km) Work Type Year ($m) S($m) A10031 12.5 Reconstruct 2001 5.4 5.4 A10004 23.4 Resurface 2001 2.9 8.3 B30106 19.8 Reconstruct 2001 8.6 16.9 A20122 5.5 Patch&Reseal 2001 1.4 18.3 : : : : : : A11028 34.5 Reconstruct 2002 13.8 13.8 C34567 22.6 Reconstruct 2002 9.7 23.5 : : : : : : B32109 15.0 Resurface 2003 4.2 4.2 C76543 36.9 Overlay 2003 24.1 28.3 : : : : : :

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