Climate Change: The Role of Technology and Transport in Mitigation

1. Climate Change: The Role of Technology and Transport in Mitigation Brian S. Fisher CRA International

4. Greenhouse gas stabilisation scenarios Source: IPCC WGIII Fourth Assessment Report

5. World transport energy use in 2000, by mode

6. Projected growth in vehicles million

7. Vehicle ownership as a function of per capita income Data Source: World Bank 2004 Note: plotted years vary by country depending on data availability

9. Projections for transport GHG emissions in 2020 for some cities of developing countries Source: Sperling & Salon, 2002

10. Historical & projected CO2 emission from transport by modes, 1970 - 2050 Source: IEA, 2005; WBCSD, 2004b

11. Projection of transport energy consumption by region & mode Source: WBCSD, 2004a

12. The effect of a scenario postulating the market penetration of all technologies Source: WBCSD, 2004a

13. Key conclusions • Global energy consumption will grow rapidly over the coming 50 years • Much of this growth will occur in developing countries • Rapid advances in energy technology and diffusion are necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Global greenhouse gas emissions will only peak by 2050 if global income growth slows substantially or with the deployment of unforeseen amounts of non-carbon energy • Technological change and deployment of new energy technologies together with unprecedented global political cooperation are the keys to the solution of the climate change problem • All transport modes have a part to play but road transport will need to be a major focus

15. Definition of scenarios Partnership technologyMajor technical advances in energy efficiency in energy intensive industries in Partnership economies by 2050 - thermal efficiency of black coal power stations 65% - thermal efficiency of gas fired power stations 74% - 80% of motor vehicle fleet non-conventional engines - 45% reduction in energy intensity in cement industry - 18% reduction in energy intensity in aluminium - 30% reduction in energy intensity in pulp and paper - 30% reduction in energy intensity in iron and steelPartnership technology + CCSAs above plus all new coal and gas fired power stations fitted with carbon capture and storage from 2015 in Australia, Japan and United States and from 2020 in China, India and South KoreaSource:ABARE

16. Global technologyMajor technical advances in energy efficiency in energy intensive industries as set out for Partnership economies fully diffused throughout the worldGlobal technology + CCSAs above plus all new coal and gas fired power stations fitted with carbon capture and storage from 2015 in Annex B countries and from 2020 in China, India and South KoreaSource: ABARE Definition of scenarios

17. Source: ABARE

18. Source: ABARE

19. Source: ABARE

20. Source: ABARE