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ADB Conference: Climate Change Mitigation in the Transport Sector

ADB Conference: Climate Change Mitigation in the Transport Sector. Emissions and Transport: A Global Perspective Lew Fulton UN Environment Programme Nairobi, Kenya. Role of UNEP.

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ADB Conference: Climate Change Mitigation in the Transport Sector

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  1. ADB Conference: Climate Change Mitigation in the Transport Sector Emissions and Transport: A Global Perspective Lew Fulton UN Environment Programme Nairobi, Kenya

  2. Role of UNEP • United Nations Environment Program plays a leading role in supporting and promoting environmental protection world-wide • UNEP is very involved with other agencies in multi-attribute assessments: • Environmental • Energy • Economic • Social • Political (policy) • UNEP has a variety of projects and programmes relating to urban environment and its various linkages with these other concerns • DTIE (Division of Technology, Industry and Energy) • PCFV (Partnership for clean fuels and vehicles) • DGEF (Division of GEF coordination) WWW.UNEP.ORG

  3. 18 000 16 000 14 000 Oil 12 000 10 000 Mtoe 8 000 Gas 6 000 Coal 4 000 2 000 Other renewables Nuclear Hydro 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1971 World Primary Energy Demand Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

  4. 40 000 35 000 30 000 25 000 2 20 000 Mt of CO 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Coal Oil Gas World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

  5. Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

  6. World CO2 emissions by sector,1990-2030 The share of transport in CO2 emissions will increase from 21% today to 23% in 2030 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

  7. Increase in World Oil Demand, 2004-2030 22 17 12 mb/d 7 2 OECD Non-OECD -3 Power generation Industry Transport Other Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

  8. IEA/World Energy Outlook 2004Crude Oil Price Projections(A lot has changed in 2 years!) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2004

  9. A Key Variable: Oil Demand Growth mb/d 3% annual growth rate Annual demand growth 1% annual growth rate

  10. Though air travel energy use rises fastest, LDVs still will use most energy Source: IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030 Study, 2004

  11. Car ownership will continue to rise, especially in the developing world Source: IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030 Study, 2004

  12. 2-wheeler growth could also be substantial Source: IEA projections for WBCSD Mobility 2030 Study, 2004

  13. What do the trends mean for emissions?Projected total Non-OECD road transport emissions if countries eventually adopt euro-type standardsIEA/SMP Projections; Reference case assumes a 10-year lag time; all scenarios assume fairly strong enforcement

  14. Changing the travel/energy use trends: What are some options? • The following slides outline some areas for where we see promise: • Vehicle efficiency improvement • Biofuels (some types, from some places) • Improved transit systems (e.g. BRT) • Greater attention to travel demand management and non-motorised modes

  15. Vehicle Efficiency Options • There are many technologies available to improve vehicle efficiency at relatively low cost • IEA estimates that 25% reduction in new car fuel use/km could be achieved by 2020 at fairly low cost • Strong policies will be needed; China has taken an important step in this regard • Somewhat lower potential for other modes, but still significant • This will save fuel but won’t directly impact pollutant emissions (except hydro carbons to a small degree)

  16. Liquid Biofuels: Overview • Ethanol • Can be blended to at least 10% in vehicles in OECD countries; are blended up to 26% in Brazil • Costs for creating “fuel-flexible” vehicles (can run on any mixture of ethanol and gasoline) are on the order of €100-200 per vehicle; many such vehicles in Brazil, U.S. and Sweden • Low-level ethanol blends reduce emissions of many pollutants (CO, PM), but can increase some (e.g. HC, aldehydes). • Biodiesel • Can be blended up to 100% with petroleum diesel in most engines, though some minor modifications may be required • Biodiesel blends reduce emissions of most pollutants (PM, SOx) compared to petroleum diesel fuel, with reductions increasing with percent share of biodiesel

  17. A typology of liquid biofuels

  18. GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel

  19. Ethanol Production: Past…and Future? Million litres per year Source: IEA, 2004, Biofuels for Transport: An International Perspective

  20. Travel Demand Management • Any reduction in motorized travel growth rates reduces future emissions • Challenge is to maximize mobility while minimizing emissions • Growth in car ownership is inevitable but it can be slowed and alternatives provided • A model: cars in Europe are driven far less than in the US because of land use and travel alternatives

  21. Travel Demand Management: Promising Options • Many important measures; will mention three here: • Get the prices right • Tax vehicles and fuels in line with social costs; • Differential taxation based on vehicle emissions is a powerful tool • Invest in strong transit systems • Learn from Latin America – well designed, strongly implemented BRT makes a huge difference • Design cities to be “friendly” to non-motorized transit and pedestrians

  22. Bus Rapid Transit • “Full” BRT • Segregated, median busways with median stations • Pre-board fare collection and fare verification • Restricted operator access (closed system) • Free transfers between corridors • Competitively bid concessions • High frequency service and low station dwell times • Clean bus technologies • Modal integration Bus Rapid Transit is a mass transit system that mimics the rapidity and performance of metros but utilises buses rather than rail vehicles. Volvo

  23. Manfred Breithaupt Lloyd Wright Mass transit costs Trams / Light rail US$10 – 30 million / km Elevated rail US$ 50 – 100 million Subways US$50 million – 300 million / km BRT US$ 1 – 5 million / km

  24. Some GHG Cost Reduction Scenarios: Fuel Switching Source: Wright and Fulton, 2005, “Climate Change and Transport in Developing Nations”, Transport Reviews

  25. Some GHG Cost Reduction Scenarios: Mode Switching Source: Wright and Fulton, 2005, “Climate Change and Transport in Developing Nations”, Transport Reviews

  26. Conclusions • The world is likely to experience strong growth in fossil energy use over next 50 years • Transport will be a key source of increased CO2 emissions and will account for nearly all growth in oil use • Vehicle efficiency improvement is a must • Advanced biofuels are promising, but huge questions remain about their potential and environmental impacts • Investments in high-quality bus systems and NMT infrastructure may provide very low cost emissions reductions along with other benefits • TDM as complementary measures are also critical

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