Optimized fractional cloudines determination from five ground-based remote sensing techniques Or

Optimized fractional cloudines determination from five ground-based remote sensing techniques Or What is the average of Yes and No? [presentation Vaisala award 2012] R. Boers1, M. de Haij1, W. Wauben1, H. Klein Baltink1, B. v Ulft1, M. Savenije1, C. Long2 1KNMI, Netherlands 2PNL, USA Special thanks to our managers! 1)Dr.F. Brouwer, Director of KNMI, Dutch Permanent Representative of WMO 2)Dr.B. v Oord, Head, R&D Infrastructure Department, KNMI 3) Dr. R. v Oss, Head, Regional Climate Department, KNMI KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

This is a talk about climate monitoring………… with a potential conflict between 1) Free data access and 2) Budget restrictions KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

Let’s talk about your neighbour….He/she .. • Is computer literate, has PC • Has internet connection • Is interested in climate and weather • Is sceptical about climate change • Knows about free data access; after all: he/she is a law-abiding citizen and taxpayer, and deserves to have access • Knows how to make a graph or two with .xls • Has some free time on his/her hands KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

A KNMI time series of fractional cloudiness KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

What is the chance that he/she will think: • It’s published on the Internet, therefore it must be true. I have found climate change! If I can make this graph with little problems: Why haven’t those guys at the Weather Service picked this up? What are they doing up there? KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

The Observer died, the Ceilometer was born KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

true true true Climate change A management decision Climate change KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

So, the graph conveys two truths: • About climate change • About a management decision to change observations • Your neighbour is asked to discern between these two truths. KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

For the interpretation of these type of graphs you need climate monitoring experts. What are the perfect qualifications? • Start Young, Die Old • Autistic /Myopic • Asocial • Micromanager • Ultraconservative • Ultrapersistent • No ambition, no upward mobility • No wish to publish anything 9) Low pay not a problem 10) No internet connection, no Twitter, 11) No Facebook • Be a nerd!!! KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012 Observer

The transformation from an Observer to a Ceilometer KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

yes no yes yes yes no yes yes yes KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

A Ceilometer is a colourblind Observer with a telescope and a serious spinal injury KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

With a ceilometer, it’s either Yes or No. The average of Yes and No does not exist. The Ceilometer The Observer KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

More of either Yes or No After the Management Decision KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

Is a Ceilometer the solution to continue cloud monitoring for climate purposes? Only in a very limited sense. It is a columnar method. Can we find better ways? Yes, we can! We have proven that hemispheric methods yield results that better emulate the Observer. Suggested solution: A sky scanning IR radiometer: Nubiscope combined with a Scanning ceilometer KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

Thank you for your attention! KNMI, Vaisala, Brussels, 18-10-2012

Optimized fractional cloudines determination from five ground-based remote sensing techniques Or