1 / 9

The Challenge of Change: Governing complex and dynamic marine socio-ecological systems

The Challenge of Change: Governing complex and dynamic marine socio-ecological systems. Oran R. Young CLIOTOP Workshop – April 2007. CLIOTOP Emphases. Themes Change Management/governance Sustainability Goal Integrated research projects. Complex and Dynamic Systems. The setting:

taji
Download Presentation

The Challenge of Change: Governing complex and dynamic marine socio-ecological systems

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Challenge of Change:Governing complex and dynamic marine socio-ecological systems Oran R. Young CLIOTOP Workshop – April 2007

  2. CLIOTOP Emphases • Themes • Change • Management/governance • Sustainability • Goal • Integrated research projects

  3. Complex and Dynamic Systems • The setting: • The systems we encounter in the real world often differ – sometimes drastically – from those we commonly assume for purposes of analysis • Major factors: • Nonlinearities and chaotic behavior • Sensitivity to initial conditions • Impacts of exogenous shocks • Thresholds, tipping points, and state changes • Emergent properties • Fast, irreversible, and often nasty changes

  4. Consequences • Methodological implications • Design implications

  5. Methodological Implications • Many traditional methods of analysis are of limited value in such settings • Example: exploring links between a well-defined DV and several IVs through applications of regression analysis • Methods capable of dealing with complex causality become increasingly important • Systems analysis: simulations and sensitivity analysis • Scenarios: exploring future trajectories • Meta-analysis/configurational comparisons (e.g. QCA) • Case studies, counterfactuals, natural experiments • We are not alone • Compare the circumstances of climate modelers

  6. Design Implications • One size does not fit all • Designing governance systems to match the principal features of specific marine systems • The diagnostic method – launching queries to determine what arrangements are needed in specific situations • Discontinuous change? • Sudden/surprising change? • Irreversible change?

  7. Design Implications cont’d • Addressing change in complex systems • Holistic, multi-sectoral analysis • Focusing only on fish/fishing will not suffice • Monitoring/early warning systems • Targeting monitoring to critical points and building in redundancy • Rapid response capability • Capacity to respond promptly when thresholds come into sight (e.g. population collapses) • Flexibility and social learning • The need to adjust institutions at a pace that keeps up with changes in the relevant socio-ecological system

  8. Design Implications cont’d • Coping with uncertainty in complex systems • Precautionary approaches • Locating the burden of proof • Insurance schemes • Role of MPAs, no-take zones • Heuristics/rules of thumb • Roles for traditional/informal ecological knowledge • What the fishers know

  9. Conclusion • The bad news • No simple/all-purpose prescription – the devil is in the details • The good news • Lots of scope for designing regimes that are well-matched to specific situations

More Related