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Eskom’s MYPD2 application Lawful? Necessary?

Eskom’s MYPD2 application Lawful? Necessary? . Peet du Plooy WWF: Trade & Investment Advisor (South Africa). Key questions. 1. Is the planning basis for the investment programme necessitating the tariff increase valid and legal?

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Eskom’s MYPD2 application Lawful? Necessary?

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  1. Eskom’s MYPD2 application Lawful? Necessary? Peet du Plooy WWF: Trade & Investment Advisor (South Africa)

  2. Key questions 1. Is the planning basis for the investment programme necessitating the tariff increase valid and legal? 2. Is the assumed growth rate in electricity demand justified, if the electricity price more than triples over only four years? 3. What are the long-term (cost, competitveness and environmental) risks to funding the proposed, coal-based and Eskom-driven expansion plan? • Is Eskom an “efficient producer”? • Are there alternatives?

  3. Key question 1 Is the planning basis for the investment programme necessitating the tariff increase valid and legal?

  4. Planning basis “IRP1” As gazetted on 31 Dec 2009 (after the MYPD2 application), without further detail, public participation or incorporation of Eskom’s build plan revisions:

  5. Energy Act 34 of 2008 CHAPTER 2 ENERGY SUPPLY, OPTIMISATION AND UTILISATION Provision of data and access to data sources 3. (1) The Minister must establish mechanisms to ensure— (a) provision of any data andinformation reasonably required for the purposes of conducting analysis required for energy planning from any person and the time period for the provision of such data and information, where such data is not already made available to any other public institution: and (b) connection to any data and information management system, or any other system within the public administration, for the acquisition of energy data and information, in accordance with the Promotion of Access to Information Act and the Statistics Act, 1999 (Act No. 6 of 1999) where such data or information is collected by that public institution. (2) The Minister may, for the purpose of ensuring optimal collection of data, subject to observation of confidentiality of information in the possession of a particular entity, permit sharing of information with any other entity within and outside of the boundaries of the Republic. (3) The information provided under this Act that is not already in the public domain may only be supplied to persons outside of the Department subject to the provisions of the Promotion of Access to Information Act. (4) The Minister must establish mechanisms t o— (a) collect, collate and analyse energy data and information: (b) manage energy data and information; and (c) avail, in a manner prescribed, energy statistics and energy information to the public.

  6. Energy Act 34 of 2008 (5) The Minister mustannually publish an analysis— (a) reviewing energy demand and supply for previous year; (b) forecasting energy supply and demand for no less than 20 years; and (c) of plausible energy scenarios of how the future energy demand and supply landscape could look like under different demand and supply assumptions. (6) The Ministermust publish— (a) models used for data and information analysis; (b) all the assumptions that are underpinning the models contemplated in subsection (a); and (c) a list of categories of information or data that have been classified as confidential and the reasons thereof. Safety, health and environment 4. The Minister may. after consultation with the Minister of Trade and Industry, the Minister of Labour and the Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, adopt measures not contemplated in any other legislation, to minimise the negative safety, health and environmental impacts of energy carriers. Energy access by households 5. (1) The Ministermust adopt measures that provide for the universal access to appropriate forms of energy or energy services for all the people of the Republic at affordable prices. (2) …

  7. Energy Act 34 of 2008 CHAPTER 3 INTEGRATED ENERGY PLANNING Integrated energy planning 6. (1) The Minister must develop and, on an annual basis, review and publish the Integrated Energy Plan in the Gazette. (2) The Integrated Energy Plan must deal with issues relating to the supply, transformation, transport, storage of and demand for energy in a way that accounts for— (a) security of supply; (b) economically available energy resources: (c) affordability; (d) universal accessibility and free basic electricity; (e) social equity; (f) employment; (g) the environment; (h) international commitments; (i) consumer protection; and (j) contribution of energy supply to socio-economic development.

  8. Energy Act 34 of 2008 (3) The Integrated Energy Plan must— (a) take account of plans relating to transport, electricity, petroleum, water, trade, macro-economy energy infrastructure development, housing, air quality management, greenhouse gas mitigation within the energy sector and integrated development plans of local and provincial authorities: (b) inform and be informed by plans from all supply, production and demand sectors whose plans impact on or are impacted by the Integrated Energy Plan; and (c) be based on the results of the energy analysis envisaged in sections 3(4)(a) and 3(5). (4) The development of the Integrated Energy Plan must take into account— (a) sustainable development; (b) optimal use of indigenous and regional energy resources: (c) balance between supply and demand; (d) economic viability; (e) environmental, health, safety and socio-economic impacts; and (f) developmental requirements of the .Southern African region. (5) The Integrated Energy Plan must have a planning horizon of no less than 20 years. (6) The Integrated Energy Plan must— (a) serve as a guide for energy infrastructure investments; (b) take into account all viable energy supply options: and (c) guide the selection of the appropriate technology to meet energy demand. (7) Before finalising the Integrated Energy Plan, the Minister must— (a) invite public comments; and (b) duly consider such comments.

  9. Key question 2 Is the assumed growth rate in electricity demand justified, if the electricity price more than triples over only four years?

  10. Demand Assumption The expansion plan calls for 25% more supply (10GW added to 40GW) Mining and industry use 2/3 (68% in 2002) of electricity > Production in energy-intensive gold-mining is levelling out. Will energy-intensive industry grow if electricity prices rise by 228% in four years (25c/kWh to 82c/kWh)? Households use 1/6 (17% in 2002) of electricity > 1/4 of these still needs to be electrified. Even if these consumed as much as those already electrified (very unlikely), this would raise total demand by only 1/24 or 4% Agriculture + commerce use 1/8 (13% in 2002) of electricity > How will this demand grow at three times the price? Transport uses 1/50 (2% in 2002) of electricity > Vehicle electrification and road-to-rail will raise this, but by less than 10%

  11. Key question 3 What are the long-term (cost, competitiveness and environmental) risks of funding (through the MYPD2) the proposed, coal-based and Eskom-driven expansion plan?

  12. Long term cost risk ? From Eskom MYPD2 application

  13. SA’s energy profile SA share of world total : • Economy: 0.71% • Population: 0.73% • Energy Use: 1.14% • GHG: 1.16% • Electricity: 1.4% • CO2: 1.6% (Source: cait.wri.org +) #2 in carbon intensity of electricity after Poland (before new build, #1 after?)

  14. Risk in trade Supply-chain accountability by foreign buyers (eg. UK chain stores) increasingly require carbon neutrality in our exports (high-value agricultural exports already affected) Regulatory costs for embedded carbon in exported goods (border tax adjustments threatened by US, Germany, France) Carbon is increasingly a consideration for hosting international events and tourism (World Cup will be one of the world’s most carbon-intensive events due to 1. SA being a long-haul destination, 2. carbon-intensive fuel and 3. carbon-intensive electricity 4. with no carbon offsetting)

  15. Risk in trade South Africa is accountable for CO2 emitted on behalf of countries who import goods manufactured here. Our emissions are higher than that caused by our own consumption (Balance of Emissions Embodied in Trade).

  16. Missed opportunity Funding the coal alternative also carries an opportunity cost in not developing new… • technologies, • resources, and • Industries We will be backing the slow horse… (Coal power investment grew by 4.4% world-wide 2000-2005, In 2008 global investment was $110bn) …and not the fast one. (Renewable energy investment grew by >60% 2004-2007, In 2008 investment was $140bn)

  17. Industrial evolution

  18. Sustainable energy not if, but when (Graph source: BP) …and who profits (most)

  19. Unexploited wealth

  20. Key question 4 Is Eskom an “efficient producer”?

  21. National Energy Regulation Act 4 of 2006 Tariff principles 16. (1) … the setting or approval of prices, charges and tariffs and the regulation of revenues- (a) must enable an efficient licensee to recover the fullcost of its licensed activities, including a reasonable margin or return; (b) must provide for or prescribe incentives for continued improvement of the technical and economic efficiency with which services are to be provided;

  22. Financial efficiency 33c/kWh covers Eskom’s additional costs for existing stations. The other 49c/kWh (82c/kWh - 33c/kWh) goes towards Medupi and Kusile. This is because Eskom is not properly capitalized, making it a financially inefficient producer. This is further evidenced by cost creep of 50% and 67% for Medupi (R120bn i.s.o. R79bn) and Kusile (R142bn i.s.o R85bn)compared to the prices approved by the Eskom board in 2007.

  23. Financial efficiency Medupi + Kusile would be 20% of total capacity (40GW + 10GW = 50GW) A 20% mix of IPP-supplied clean energy (co-gen, wind, solar) costing R1.50/kWh would raise the tariff from 33c/kWh to58.6c/kWh – an increase of 25.6c/kWh with rates fixed for 20 years. Generator units would be built in many small (~100MW)installments instead of two large 5 000MW chunks, spreading risk and allowing for gradual financing.

  24. Key question 5 Are there alternatives?

  25. Spending R120bn better Published in Proceedings of Solar World Congress 2009

  26. Affordable clean energy From WWF report: “Cheaper Electricity with Renewable Energy”

  27. Proposal • Grant the increase necessary for Eskom to build Medupi If consumers don’t pay for it, tax payers will have to.We will regret it in future, but because the cart (contracting) was put before the horses (planning), this is a horse that has already bolted.

  28. Proposal • Do not grant an increase for the building of Kusile unless and until it has been demonstrated: * in an Integrated Energy Plan * developed in accordance to the law …that it is a cheaper option for the country than IPP build and/or a combination of co-generation and large-scale solar and wind power. “Cheaper” should cover at least a 20 year perspective (Energy Act) and include quantifiable externalities (Energy White Paper)

  29. Proposal • Ensure that the build plan meets or exceeds South Africa’s targets for: • universal access to basic electricity (rural electrification) • greenhouse gas mitigation (stabilization and 34% reduction from BAU by 2020) • IPP participation (30% of all new build by value) • renewable energy share (4% / 10 000GWh / 1 320MW by 20139-15% by 2018 [2009 RE Summit, currently under review])

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