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Patterns of Forest Pest Infestations and Threats in Eastern US National Parks

Patterns of Forest Pest Infestations and Threats in Eastern US National Parks. Kate Miller Jim Comiskey Northeast Temperate Network Mid-Atlantic Network George Wright Society Meeting March 16, 2011. Eastern Forest Working Group . Priority Forest Pests and Pathogens.

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Patterns of Forest Pest Infestations and Threats in Eastern US National Parks

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  1. Patterns of Forest Pest Infestations and Threats in Eastern US National Parks Kate Miller Jim Comiskey Northeast Temperate Network Mid-Atlantic Network George Wright Society Meeting March 16, 2011 E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A

  2. Eastern Forest Working Group E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A

  3. Priority Forest Pests and Pathogens Asian Longhorned Beetle (ALB) Balsam Woolly Adelgid (BWA) Beech Bark Disease (BBD) Butternut Canker (BC) Dogwood Anthracnose (DWA) Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Elongate Hemlock Scale (EHS) Gypsy Moth (GM) Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) Sirex Woodwasp (SW) Sudden Oak Death (SOD) E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A

  4. Priority Forest Pests and Pathogens Asian Longhorned Beetle (ALB) Balsam Woolly Adelgid (BWA) Beech Bark Disease (BBD) Butternut Canker (BC) Dogwood Anthracnose (DWA) Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Elongate Hemlock Scale (EHS) Gypsy Moth (GM) Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (HWA) SirexWoodwasp (SW) Sudden Oak Death (SOD) E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A

  5. Priority Pests and Pathogens • Number detected per park

  6. Hemlock Woolly Adelgid • Infestation range versus park detections

  7. Relative Basal Area of Hemlock • Based on tree data collected in forest plots

  8. Current Hemlock Importance Value IV based on species BA and density • Based on USFS FIA data (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

  9. Predicted Suitable Habitat in 2100 • Global Circ. Model: Hadley; Emissions Scenario: B1 (Low) • USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

  10. Predicted Suitable Habitat in 2100 • Global Circ. Model: Hadley; Emissions Scenario: A1FI (High) • USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

  11. Predicted Hemlock Woolly Adelgid Range Based on predicted mean winter temperature of -5oC Averaged over 3 GCMs for High and Low Emission Scenarios Paradis and Elkinton et al. 2007

  12. Hemlock Conclusions Range of HWA currently covers all networks. Many parks have already observed significant hemlock mortality. Expansion of HWA limited by winter temperature. Climate change scenarios • High (business as usual), HWA may cover the entire range of suitable habitat for hemlock in the Northeast. • Low, northern New England and the Adirondack region in NY as possible refugia for hemlock and may include MABI and SAGA. Early detection and rapid response efforts to slow the spread of HWA may buy some time for MABI and SAGA.

  13. Current Emerald Ash Borer Distribution Tree ranges follow Little 1971

  14. Relative Basal Area of Ash species • Based on tree data collected in forest plots

  15. Current White Ash Importance Value IV based on species BA and density • Based on USFS FIA data (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

  16. Predicted Suitable Habitat in 2100 • Global Circ. Model: Hadley; Emissions Scenario: B1 (Low) • USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

  17. Predicted Suitable Habitat in 2100 • Global Circ. Model: Hadley; Emissions Scenario: A1FI (High) • USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas (Prasad and Iverson et al. 2007)

  18. Emerald Ash Borer Conclusions Emerald ash borer is spreading rapidly throughout the eastern US, and primarily dispersed by humans. Once EAB are established, ash mortality is nearly 100%. Ash trees occur in over 90% of all parks sampled, although generally at low densities. Low and high emission scenarios predict widespread decline in quality white ash habitat. Unlike the range of HWA, spread of EAB does not appear to be limited by colder climates.

  19. Applications of Forest Monitoring Data Inform parks of emerging forest health issues. Predict impacts based on observations in other parks. Prioritize species for early detection and rapid response efforts at park and regional levels. Inform scenario planning for climate change adaptation, including potential desired future conditions.

  20. Sources of Information USFS Alien Forest Pest Explorerhttp://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/tools/afpe/maps/ USFS Climate Change Tree Atlas (Prasad and Iverson 2007)http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/tree_atlas.html Atlas of United States Trees (Little 1971)http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/data/atlas/little/ NPS Eastern Forest Working Grouphttp://science.nature.nps.gov/im/units/midn/Forest_Monitoring_Meeting.cfm Northeast Temperate Inventory and Monitoring Network http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/units/netn/index.cfm

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