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Briefing for Weather Forecast for KOKC (Oklahoma City, OK) on April 30, 2014

Briefing for Weather Forecast for KOKC (Oklahoma City, OK) on April 30, 2014. Deshaun Stuart METR 104 April 29, 2014. 0. Overview of Current Weather Conditions. visible and infrared satellite images a composite surface weather map a composite map of conditions aloft

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Briefing for Weather Forecast for KOKC (Oklahoma City, OK) on April 30, 2014

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  1. Briefing for Weather Forecast for KOKC(Oklahoma City, OK)on April 30, 2014 Deshaun Stuart METR 104 April 29, 2014

  2. 0. Overview of Current Weather Conditions • visible and infrared satellite images • a composite surface weather map • a composite map of conditions aloft • a jet stream map

  3. Forecast Discussion • For 12Z Temperature: If look at the difference between the low temperature and the 12Z temperature on the meteograms for the past couple of days, which is 0°F, we can assume that the difference between the low temperature and 12Z temperature for tomorrow will look similar. If so then the temperature for 12Z tomorrow will be 41°F. • For the effect of cloudiness on 12Z or on 18Z temperature: The criterion selected for defining significant restriction of radiational cooling is whether there will be 3 or more hours of at least broken clouds (i.e., 75% cloud cover) in the 6 hours preceding 12Z (i.e., for 7Z, 8Z, ........, 12Z). Sources to look at be the Latest NWS Point Forecast as well as the http://funnel.sfsu.edu/courses/metr104/S14/forecasting/ForecastingTactics/. With the NWS Point Forecast we can get a prediction for how cloudy it will be during the the hours leading up to and including 12Z. From that we can look at the forecasting terms and see what type of cloud cover was predicted in the Point Forecast. Based off of these two sources I can make the assumption that because it will be mostly cloudy that most of the night will be cloudy and the 12Z temperature will be effected by the cloudiness.

  4. 1. 12Z Temperature • Latest available meteogram

  5. 1. 12Z Temperature • Next-latest available meteogram

  6. 1. 12Z Temperature Latest NWS Point Forecast: Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Windy, with a north northwest wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph.

  7. 1. 12Z Temperature Latest computer model (NAM) forecast of winds and temperaturesat 12Z tomorrow

  8. 2. Will cloudiness affectthe 12Z temperature tomorrow? Latest NWS Point Forecast: Tonight:  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Windy, with a north northwest wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph.  • wunderWiki: “Educational: Partly Cloudy” (an attempt to interpret the language used in NWS cloudiness forecasts) Mostly cloudy In a forecast, this means that most of the day will be cloudy. For a current condition, this means that much more than half of the sky is covered in clouds. NOT Cloudy is when the sky is complete covered by cloud, no view of blue sky.

  9. Forecast:12Z temperature: 41 Forecast Verification: • Archived meteograms • Archived weather maps for the Great Plains, including fronts • Archived analyses of temperature and wind observations

  10. Archived meteograms

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