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Michael Erickson’s Super Awesome Expert* 2013-2014 Winter Forecast**

Michael Erickson’s Super Awesome Expert* 2013-2014 Winter Forecast**. *Michael Erickson is not a super awesome expert **By no means can this be called a “forecast”. Surface Temperature Anomaly. 500 hPa Height Anomaly. ENSO Neutral Conditions in Sept-Oct. Surface Temperature Anomaly.

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Michael Erickson’s Super Awesome Expert* 2013-2014 Winter Forecast**

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  1. Michael Erickson’s Super Awesome Expert* 2013-2014 Winter Forecast** *Michael Erickson is not a super awesome expert **By no means can this be called a “forecast”

  2. Surface Temperature Anomaly 500 hPa Height Anomaly ENSO Neutral Conditions in Sept-Oct

  3. Surface Temperature Anomaly 500 hPa Height Anomaly ENSO Neutral Conditions (whole winter)

  4. Surface Temperature Anomaly 500 hPa Height Anomaly QBO (Positive but dropping)

  5. Surface Temperature Anomaly 500 hPa Height Anomaly AMO (Positive)

  6. Surface Temperature Anomaly 500 hPa Height Anomaly PDO (Negative)

  7. Surface Temperature Anomaly 500 hPa Height Anomaly Preferred Years from all Composites

  8. Surface Temperature Anomaly 500 hPa Height Anomaly Preferred Years from Composites (recent)

  9. There is no signal. • Compositing is a tricky game, maybe I could find a signal by compositing conditional on something else. The trick is keeping that conditional requirement logical. • There is no signal. Conclusions

  10. There is a saying, “When in drought, forecast drought.” It works well until the drought breaks. Drought Goodness

  11. They are basically the same every year. Go With the Weenies Winter Forecast

  12. I’d go with the CPC Forecast

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