NWS Role in the Evolving NOAA Climate Service (NCS)

1. NWS Role in the EvolvingNOAA Climate Service (NCS) Fiona Horsfall Climate Services Division, Acting Chief 2010 MIC-HIC Conference April 20, 2010

2. Outline Overview Motivation for Change What can we do to support America’s need for more and better climate services? Challenges What are we doing to move ahead? What Should MICs and HICs Do? Summary

3. Overview of Current NWS Climate Services • NWS delivers… • Climate observation and data products • Environmental predictions, real-time monitoring, and assessments of the climate state to the nation and the global community • Regional and local climate services through an extensive infrastructure • Decision support and capacity building 3

4. Overview of Current NWS Climate Services 4

5. Overview of Current NWS Climate Services • National • NCEP • Intraseasonal to interannual prediction • Real time monitoring • Assessments of the state of the climate, • including hazards • Modeling and research activities • Climate model development, simulations, multi model ensembles, data assimilation, reforecasts and reanalysis, diagnostics, regional downscaling • Transition activities • Research to Operations (Climate Test Bed - CTB) - R2O • Operations to Research (Model Test Facility – MTF)- O2R • Sustaining Development • Operational implementation and support; computational resources 5

6. Overview of Current NWS Climate Services • National (continued) • OCWWS • Sets policy and requirements • Secures and allocates resources for supported activities, including contribution to regional programs • Develops training for staff and users • Conducts outreach • Develops partnerships • Serves as the national coordinator for regional and local climate services “. . .we have a 140 year history of the National Weather Service which is a highly respected professional organization and one that’s looked to from people all around the world. And we want to build on that credibility and that expertise.” Gary Locke, Secretary of Commerce, February 8, 2010 Press Call announcing NCS 6

7. Overview of Current NWS Climate Services • Local Offices • Deliver products and services to users • Data, advisories, forecasts, analyses • Temperature • Precipitation • Streamflow/snow melt/water year runoff • Decision support services • Education and outreach • Interpretation of products and data • Gather and QC daily climate quality data • Work with partners to develop and deliver products 7

8. NWS Local Office Case Study Use of historical data to link ENSO phases to tornado activity in upper Mid West. Impact on tornado activity following a La Niña winter Impact on tornado activity following an El Niño winter reds=enhanced, blues=suppressed

9. NWS Local Office Case Study Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO) http://www.arcus.org/search/siwo NWS local offices in Alaska collaborated with ice forecasters, climate scientists, sea-ice researchers, Alaska Native sea-ice experts, and the Eskimo Walrus Commission to produce a product to support subsistence walrus hunters and coastal communities Arrows show wind direction and wind speed in knots

10. NWS Local Office Case Study • NWS is collaborating with other NOAA offices and local coffee farmers in Hawaii on a pilot project to evaluate coffee production and temperature and rainfall fluctuations

11. NWS Local Office Case Study NWS WFO Cleveland is producing a routine product to provide the climate context to NDFD Forecasts. The product includes • Anomalies for Minimum / Maximum Temperature • Heating and Cooling Degree Days • Temperature Change

12. Motivation for Change • Increasing demand for climate services • Mitigation and adaptation to climate-related risks • Socio-economic benefits from changes in climate • Agriculture • Tourism • Energy • Emergency management • Water management • Improving capability to predict earth system across timescales • Emerging NOAA Climate Service • Partnership with NWS on delivery of climate services • Seamless weather-climate prediction

13. Motivation for Change: Emerging NOAA Climate Service VISION NOAA Envisions an Informed Society Anticipating and Responding to Climate and its Impacts MISSION • Advance understanding and communication of climate to inform decisions about mitigation and adaptation * • Support decision makers regionally to globally, on time scales of weeks to decades, in areas including public policy, resource management, infrastructure investment, business development, and decisions of individuals in their daily lives GOALS • Continue to Grow, Evaluate and Evolve NOAA’s Core Competencies in Four Key Areas:* • Deliver Sustained & Effective Services • Promote Partnerships • Ensure Communication • Advance Climate Science NWS and NCS common goals NWS will retain core mission to provide climate forecasts 13 * Still under development.

14. What can NWS contribute to the emerging NCS? • Climate products and services that will serve as the foundation for many NCS activities • Extensive field structure for delivery of services, outreach, and education • Expertise in climate variability, regional and local climate, product and service delivery, data issues • Contribution to the NCS Portal • Emerging activities • Leadership of the NOAA Climate Monitoring Summit • Co-chairing the report on business practices between NCS and other line offices (including NWS) • Participation on the NCS Corporate Team • Staff Participation on the NCS Regional Team 14 14

15. How must we change to support America’s need for more and better climate services? • NWS needs to partner with NCS to deliver climate services to the nation • Gather user requirements and understand NCS requirements • Collaborate on monitoring, attribution studies, applied research, and other related activities • Collaborate on product development where applicable • Coordinate with NCS Regional Climate Services Directors (RCSDs) • Draw on NCS research advances for science and technology infusion and enhance transition activities 15 15

16. How must we change to support America’s need for more and better climate services? • NWS needs to partner with NCS to deliver climate services to the nation (cont’d) • Enhance and expand climate training program • Coordinate on data stewardship requirements • Align NWS climate strategic planning with NCS planning • Promote (and deliver as needed) NCS products and services • Coordinate and collaborate on education and outreach activities • Provide climate data interpretation and decision support to local customers 16 16

17. Challenges • Resources • Recognition of the importance of climate services • Commitment to support climate services • Elevate level of expertise/knowledge • Climate change or changing climate? NOAA NOAA

18. Third Edition What are we doing to move ahead? • Evolving to support NCS • Clarifying roles and responsibilities for climate services • Throughout the organization • Including collaborative activities with NCS • Enhancing support for • Climate training • Education and outreach • Leading development of user requirements process 18

19. What can MICs and HICs do? • Make climate services a priority • Help define clear roles and responsibilities • Include climate program development in local office goals Local offices are the service outlet for NOAA users requesting climate, water, and weather information. 19

20. Summary • NWS needs to respond to the growing demand for enhanced climate services • NCS is coming to NOAA • NWS needs to evolve in the area of climate services • NWS needs to partner with NCS as a key member of NOAA’s climate services delivery enterprise • MICs/HICs need to grow local office programs