Wayne Higgins Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA October 9, 2008

1. An Overview of NOAA Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Outline: • CPC Operational Activities • Alaska Region • Transition Activities (Climate Test Bed) • Challenges • National Climate Service (NCS) Wayne Higgins Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAAOctober 9, 2008 1

2. CPC Mission We deliver climate monitoring, assessment, and prediction products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy. • National temperature and precipitation outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal rankings • Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years (i.e. short term climate) • Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs • Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products Temperature Outlook 2

3. CPC Operational Activities • Outlooks (GPRA Measure - U.S. Seasonal Temperature) • Monitoring Products • Assessment Products How do we accelerate improvements in the above? • Outreach and Feedback • Partnerships • Applied Research • Transition Activities (R2O; O2R)

4. Climate Outlook Products Focus on week-2 to seasonal-to-interannual • 6-10 Day & 8-14 Day Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks • Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics) • Monthly & Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks • Seasonal Drought Outlook • Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific) Note: We recognize that we need to do more than T & P – and in particular – more climate-weather type products, more variables. What are your needs?

5. Climate Monitoring Products • Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) • Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere) • Storm Tracks and Blocking • Monsoons • Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal) • Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) • Drought (US, North America; NIDIS) Note: There has been a concerted effort to improve and expand the CPC monitoring product suite in response to user community requests.

6. A Collaborative Effort Between the Climate Prediction Center and the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Jon Gottschalck1, Sarah Trainor2, Wayne Higgins1, and Tim Eichler3 1 NOAA / NWS / NCEP – Climate Prediction Center 2 Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy – University of Alaska, Fairbanks 3 Saint Louis University – Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences • Areas of Collaboration • Storminess monitoring, assessment, and prediction • Drought and Fire Mitigation • Application of hazard assessments • Coordination and utilization of precipitation datasets Fire-Related CPC and ACCAP are initiating work that will support extended range fire forecasters in Alaska. Stakeholders hope to utilize CPC operational monthly and seasonal outlooks as input into fire activity statistical models for forecasts from lead times of 3-6 months. There appears to be strong relationship - that they hope to exploit - between certain meteorological variables and seasonal fire activity. . http://www.uaf.edu/accap/index.htm . http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Figure 6: Official operational CPC monthly outlooks for temperature (a) and precipitation (b). The include Alaska in their product domain and work in this area will downscale these forecasts for application to specific locations. Storminess During the past year, work in this area included CPC participation in an Alaska wide teleconference showcasing existing storminess-related products to a wide variety of stakeholders. Feedback from participants has been evaluated and prioritized. Also, ongoing research work continued for the development of a storminess index and the evaluation of the Climate Forecast System (CFS) as a potential extended range forecasting tool. Drought-Related Across interior Alaska, drought and fire issues are extremely important and play a substantial role in decision making by regional planners. CPC and ACCAP plan to work together to improve CPC existing products (Figure 4) via improved coordination, data input, and tool development. Precipitation Databases At CPC, a newly developed global daily gauge-satellite merged precipitation dataset is now available in realtime employing a sophisticated quality control system. ACCAP would like to utilize this state of the art dataset as part of their operations and outreach while CPC hopes to expand the number of stations included in its analysis and obtain additional historical data if possible. (b) (a) The index combines information of storm frequency, intensity, and duration when integrated over time Greater structure is seen over the example storm’s lifetime (i.e., intensity is greatest early even though the storm central low pressure remains generally constant). After further refinement and evaluation, the index can be applied to Alaska and used for both realtime and research applications. (a) (b) Figure 4: The US Drought Monitor (a) and US Seasonal Drought Outlook (b) include Alaska as part of their product domain and would benefit from input from stakeholders in the Alaska region to improve not only the inputs to each product but also for improved utilization. Storminess Index Short-Term Hazards Many types of hazardous weather occur across Alaska during all seasons. CPC provides 3-14 day guidance for potential threats as part of its weekly US Hazard Assessment. CPC plans to work with ACCAP to more effectively communicate prospects for hazardous weather (i.e. probabilistic terms). (b) Index (hPa) Current station coverage as part of the CPC analysis is sparse (a) Figure 7: (a) Total precipitation (mm) from the CPC dataset for February 20, 2008 and (b) an example station distribution map for a typical day across Alaska. Time Figure 5: ACCAP produces a monthly map (a) and associated text of weather and climate highlights for public use. (b) Example of the CPC weekly US Hazard Assessment that includes Alaska as part of its product domain. Figure 1: Time series of the storminess index (black line) and contributing terms [pressure tendency (red line), pressure gradient (blue line), and central low pressure difference from climatology (yellow line)] for the storm track in (a).

7. Climate Assessment Products • Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, web) • ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and WORD) • Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean updates (.ppt, PDF, web) • Seasonal Climate Summaries (web) • Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web) • Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin) • Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics) Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection Note: These products should connect climate to people’s lives. How should we expand and improve the current suite of products to do this?

8. Applied Research Activities Climate diagnostics and attribution Prediction tool development/ improvement Climate monitoring tool development/ improvement Model diagnostics and evaluation Atmospheric and oceanic predictability Weather/ Climate links Teleconnections Drought/ floods and other extreme events CPO and NCEP have partnered to accelerate the transition of research advances into operations (new and improved forecast products and services)

9. The Role of the Pacific- North American (PNA) Pattern in the 2007 Arctic Sea Ice Decline L’Heureux, Kumar, Bell, Halpert, and Higgins (2008) In press, Geophysical Research Letters July-Aug-Sept 2007 500-hPa geopotential height Loading Pattern for July-Aug-Sept PNA Location of the greatest sea ice melt JAS 2007 PNA value was 3 standard deviations

10. Advancing Climate Prediction:The Climate Test Bed Climate Community Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

11. Climate Prediction Advances at NCEP (0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Running Average vs. GPRA Goal) • Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational coupled climate forecast model, implemented Aug 04 • Climate Test Bed: jointly established by CPO and NCEP in 2005 and focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products • Increasesin the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks(20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2008) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool).

12. Climate Test Bed is a Community Resource • Infrastructure: • 1/3rd NCEP R&D supercomputer • 12 CPC/EMC contract/federal employees • Competitive grants program • Collaborative research on high profile science activities • CFS/GFS Improvements • Multi-model ensembles across time scales • Objective climate forecast products (drought / NIDIS) • Currently 10 funded projects (external PI’s and internal co-I’s) • CTB Seminar Series • Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)

13. Challenges for Accelerating Improvements in Climate Prediction • Multi-Model Ensembles • National Strategy • Computer resources for generating hindcasts • Concept of Operations • Memoranda of Agreement with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational models & forecast data • Reanalysis • Advance assessment and prediction capabilities • CTB infrastructure • Revitalize climate computing • Competitive grants program to accelerate R2O • Model Test Facility (O2R) support – people, data access, helpdesk, training to accelerate R2O

14. Toward a National Climate Service

15. Toward a National Climate Service Public demand for climate information exceeds current capacity Sources of information are distributed and usually not coordinated Commitment to establish a Climate Service is needed to integrate provision of NOAA’s climate products and services NOAA needs to engage other agencies and organizations in defining their roles in a National Climate Service partnership Improved capabilities are needed to enable: User and issue focused approach Better monitoring Improve national to local predictions and projections Assessments of impacts and vulnerabilities in support of adaptation and mitigation 15 CarbonTracker

16. NCS Key Working Groups DAA Oversight Group SAB Tiger Teams • Co-chairs: • Paul Doremus and Chet Koblinsky • NESDIS- Charlie Baker • NWS- Vickie Nadolski • OAR- Craig McLean / Sandy MacDonald • NOS- Bill Corso • NMFS- John Oliver • Coordinating Committee Chair: • Eric Barron (NCAR) • NOAA Coordinating Committee Members: • Craig McLean • Charlie Baker • Tiger Team Chairs: • Tom Armstrong (USGS)Joe Friday (AMS)Jack Fellows (UCAR - invited)Bob Corell (Heinz Center) • NOAA members will be included in each Tiger Team Climate Service Development Team (CSDT) • Chair: Chet Koblinsky • NESDIS- Tom Karl, Eileen Shea • NWS- Fiona Horsfall, Wayne Higgins, George Smith, Ahsha Tribble • OAR- Rick Rosen, Roger Pulwarty, Claudia Nierenberg, Randy Dole, V Ramaswamy, Robin Webb • NOS- Margaret Davidson • NMFS- Ned Cyr, Steve Murawski National Climate Service 16

17. Toward a National Climate Service 17 NOAA’s vision is a service that leads to: An informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts The mission for a National Climate Service in NOAA is to: develop and deliver research, information and services to enhance society's ability to understand, anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to climate variability and change * Note: Intent is not to infringe on the mission responsibilities of other agencies but to enhance NOAA’s own climate services

18. Strategic Goals Provide Leadership for a National Climate Services Partnership Build and Sustain Comprehensive Observations and Monitoring Systems Provide State-of-the-Art Research, Modeling, Predictions, and Projections Develop, Deliver, and Communicate Valued Climate Services in Collaboration with Users. Toward a National Climate Service 18

19. Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF) • Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin • Briefings & Weather Summaries • Morning (US) & afternoon (International) Wx summary • Weekly briefing on global weather and crop conditions • Daily Agricultural Weather Highlights • Future plans include International JAWF Desk • World Food Crisis adds a sense of urgency to JAWF activities • USDA – Commerce partnership on JAWF is a centerpiece of NOAA’s emerging strategy for a National Climate Service

20. CFS DJF S. Africa P Fcsts Activities for Africa/Asia Current Activities • Provide support to WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project and to AMMA • Work with WMO on improving seasonal to interannual climate forecasts and applications • Support regional climate outlook forums • Lead Famine Early Warning System Hazard/ Benefit Assessments: Africa, Central America, Afghanistan • Indian Ocean tropical cyclone monitoring • Contribute to USAID Asian Flood Network • Provide professional development training to African Meteorologists Training Coverage in Africa Future Plans • Assess global models over Africa • Climate training for SE Asia • Enhance outreach capability to ensure best possible use of forecast products and services

21. Summary • CPC delivers a large suite of “operational” climate monitoring, assessment and prediction products • CPC plays a unique and critical role in NOAA climate services • The mission of CPC is to “ deliver climate monitoring, assessment, and prediction products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.” • CPC will play a central role in NOAA’s emerging strategy for a National Climate Service