Research and Development to Meet Urban Weather and Climate Needs

1. Research and Developmentto Meet UrbanWeather and Climate Needs Dr. Richard D. Rosen NOAA Research September 23, 2004 Presentation at “Challenges in Urban Meteorology: Forum for Users and Providers”, Rockville, MD

2. Why Urban Meteorology Now? • Technological Advances • Remote sensing and other platforms • Computer models • Homeland Security • Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion (ATD) models • Health and Safety • Air quality • High impact weather

3. Technological Advances NOAA is working toward an integrated observing system to take into account a myriad of observational data and optimize their use. • Satellite data • Climate Reference Network • UrbaNet – New York/Washington • Private sector ‘Weather Nets’ • In situ observations • Buoys

4. Dust Storm Pushing Air Pollution China Air Pollution China Korea Japan Dust and Air Pollution Flowing Out of China Destined for the United States (April 2001)

5. Initial UrbaNet Met Site: DOC (Hoover) Building Data Collected: 3-D Wind Vectors Temperature Pressure Relative Humidity Solar Radiation Data are collected in one minute intervals and the summaries are transferred every 15 minutes.

6. UrbaNet - Washington, DC(NOAA coordinated effort with Army, DOE, DTRA) The 12 Yellow squares are currently operating sites. The additional 12 Green squares are planned sites as funding permits

7. UrbaNet displays a well-known feature -- standard airport data are not appropriate for downtown dispersion applications.

8. Homeland Security Model of Lower Manhattan at NOAA’s Air Resources and EPA wind tunnel facility, at Research Triangle Park, N.C.

9. HYSPLIT- Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model The red dots show trajectory end points at hourly intervals. At small scales, UrbaNet data are now being assimilated.

10. The inclusion of UrbaNet data can have a significant impact. • Prediction based on 12 km Eta alone. • Prediction based on 12 km Eta but nudged towards UrbaNet data. 1000 am July 23, 2004

11. Homeland Security Support a system to orderly evacuate cities during hazardous events.

12. Health and Safety Air Quality Program Scientific Advice for Decision-Makers Regional Assessments discover key atmospheric processes that contribute to poor air quality Houston: refinery emissions New England: nocturnal chemistry Air Quality Forecasting Operational implementation for ozone initially, then particulate matter and others

13. New England 2002, 2004 Ohio River Valley Lake Michigan Mid Atlantic Central California Southern California Southeast 1995, 1999 East Texas 2000,2006 Areas with the Most Serious* Air Quality Problems Chemically and Meteorologically Diverse *Designated by EPA as “serious”, “extreme”, or “severe” for ozone and/or PM

14. National Air Quality ForecastingPlanned Capabilities • Initial: 1-day forecast guidance for ozone • Develop and deploy in Northeast by 9 / 2004 • Deploy nationwide within 5 years • Intermediate (5-7 years): • Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter concentration • Longer range (within 10 years): • Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours • Include broader range of significant pollutants

15. Health and Safety Urban areas are especially vulnerable to high impact weather, because of the concentration of lives and property. • Hurricanes – destructive winds and storm surge • Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes - affect trees, power lines, and buildings • Heat waves – direct cause of more deaths than all other weather conditions combined • Winter weather – impacts on transportation and utility infrastructure

16. Heat Waves

17. High Impact Weather U.S. Hazards Assessment

18. Summary • Need for an urban focus was magnified by 9/11 attacks, but longstanding issues regarding health and safety continue to demand attention • New observing systems and improved models point the way forward for research • Complexity of urban meteorology issues demands that NOAA partner with broader community to advance research and development