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Crop Markets

Crop Markets. Denison, Iowa August 25, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Corn Area. Source: USDA-NASS. Soybean Area. Source: USDA-NASS. Projected Corn Yields.

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Crop Markets

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  1. Crop Markets Denison, Iowa August 25, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use

  4. Corn Area Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Soybean Area Source: USDA-NASS

  6. Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Projected Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Crop Conditions Source: USDA-NASS

  9. Crop Conditions & Corn Yields

  10. Crop Conditions & Corn Yields

  11. Crop Conditions & Soybean Yields

  12. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  13. Corn – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  14. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  15. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  16. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  17. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  18. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 8/25/2011

  19. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  20. Export Pace vs. Last Year Source: USDA, FAS

  21. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  22. Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  23. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  24. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  25. Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  26. Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  27. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1)

  28. Ethanol Margin Source: CARD

  29. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  30. Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE, EIA

  31. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE, EIA

  32. Supply vs. Demand Corn Soy

  33. Supply vs. Demand Corn Soy

  34. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  35. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  36. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  37. Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  38. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Debt limit, US credit rating • US job recovery, European financial concerns, Chinese inflation • Supply/demand concerns • Prevented planting, flooding, heat wave, nighttime temps? • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.25, Soy $11.35 • 2011/12: USDA: Corn $6.70, Soy $13.50 • Futures (as of 8/25/2011): Corn $7.17, Soy $13.50

  39. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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