HURRICANE FORECASTING: Another Perspective Jill F. Hasling, President

1. HURRICANE FORECASTING: Another Perspective Jill F. Hasling, President Certified Consulting Meteorologist Weather Research Center 5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004 www.wxresearch.com

2. 1900-1959 Hurricanes East of 45W Using GIS to determine if there are more hurricanes. Conclusion: Since satellite use started after 1960, more hurricanes must be the result of satellites and not global warming. 1960-2006 Hurricanes East of 45W

3. Category 5 Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin

4. Atlantic Basin Category 5 Hurricanes 28 Category Hurricanes have occurred since 1900 Lowest Pressure – Hurricane Wilma 2005 882 mbs Highest maximum sustained winds - Hurricane Allen 1980 - 165 Knots Most Category Hurricanes per season 2005 - Four- Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma 1961 - Two – Carla and Hattie 1960 – Two – Donna and Ethel www.wxresearch.com/outlook

5. SOLAR CYCLES 11.1 Year Cycle: Sun spot number at a minimum to a sun spot number at a maximum and back to a minimum 22.2 Year Cycle: Sun spots start at the minimum at opposite pole. 88.7 Year Gleissberg Cycle 178.7 Year Jose Cycle - Includes 16 of the Sun’s orbits around the center of gravity of the solar systems or solar cycles. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

6. SOLAR CYCLE • Starts with the Sunspot Minimum – when few sunspots are observed on the sun. • The number of observed sunspots increases until it reaches the sunspot maximum. • Then the number of sunspots decrease until the sunspot minimum starts the next cycle. • There are on average 11.1 years in each cycle. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

7. In 1996, near the last solar minimum, the Sun is nearly featureless. By 1999, approaching maximum, it is dotted by sunspots and fiery hot gas trapped in magnetic loops. Solar max has also been tied to a 2 percent increase in clouds over much of the United States. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

8. Sunspot Numbers from 1745 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

9. ORBITAL CYCLONE STRIKE INDEX The OCSI was developed in the mid 80’s to predict which section of the United States Coast had the highest probability of experiencing landfall of a tropical storm or hurricane in a particular year. The index was developed using the sun spot cycle as an indication of the orbit of the sun around the center of the solar system and corresponds to the phase’s in the sun’s orbit. This leads to the premise is that the sunspot cycle is caused by orbital influences. Large scale circulation patterns of the earth are also subjected to these orbital influences which would then influence the tracks of cyclones. The OCSI index was developed using the year of the sunspot minimum as Phase 1 of the index.

10. ORBITAL CYCLONE STRIKE INDEX The index was created by sorting the Years from 1878 to 1985 by the phase of the solar cycle with the year of the sunspot minimum being Phase 1, the year after the sunspot minimum being Phase 2, etc. Those years are: 1878, 1889, 1901, 1913, 1923, 1933, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1976, 1986, 1996, 2008? The tracks of the tropical storms and hurricanes in these years were compared and the number of years a particular section of the coast experienced a landfall was tallied to give the percent chance of landfall. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

11. Orbital Cyclone Strike Index [ OCSI] www.wxresearch.com/outlook

12. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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17. 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Coast with the highest risk of landfall is Georgia to North Carolina with 90% Louisiana to Alabama has 60% chance ofa landfall • WRC GRAY Updated Gray Fcst • Number of Named Storms: 11 13 15 • Number of Storm Days: 83 60 80 • Number intensifying into • Hurricanes: 5 7 8 • Number of Hurricane Days: 24 30 40 • US Landfalls: 4 • Cat 3 or Higher Storms • in the Atlantic: 50% 3 4 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

18. PHASE Year Highest 10 1985 TX 70% W FL 70% Kate 1 1986 GA/NC 90% Charley 2 1987LA/AL – 70% 3 1988 W. FL 90% Keith 4 1989 LA-AL 90% WFL 90% Allison 5 1990 W FL 60% GA-NC 60% LA-AL 60% Marco 6 1991 W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Fabian 7 1992W FL 80% www.wxresearch.com/outlook

19. PHASE YEAR HIGHEST 8 1993 NE US 70% GA-NC 70% Emily 9 1994 W FL 70% Alberto Beryl Gordon 10 1995 TX 70% W FL 70% Dean Allison Erin Opal 1 1996 GA-NC 90% Arthur Bertha Fran 2 1997 LA-AL 70% Danny 3 1998 W FL (90%) Earl Mitch 4 1999 LA-AL 90% WFL 70% Harvey Irene Floyd 5 2000 W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Gordon Gordon Helene

20. PHASE YEAR HIGHEST 62001 W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Gabrielle Allison 7 2002 W FL 80% Hanna 8 2003 NE US 70% GA-NC 70%* Isabel Isabel 9 2004 W FL 70% Bonnie Charley Frances Ivan 10 2005 TX 70% W FL 70% Rita Dennis Wilma 11 2006 LA/AL 80% 12 2007 TX 66% LA-AL 66% WFL 66% Humberto Barry www.wxresearch.com/outlook

21. 23 Forecast Years - 1985 - 2007 20 out of the 23 years verified giving an accuracy rate of is 86.96% 3 out of the 23 years cyclones did not make landfall along the coast with the highest risk. [1987, 1992 and 2006] During these three years cyclones did make landfall in one of the coast with the second highest probability. 1987 WFL 60% - Floyd 1992 LA-AL 60% - Andrew 2006 GA/NC 66% - Alberto/Ernesto www.wxresearch.com/outlook

22. Other Cycles Used for Verification PHASE YEAR HIGHEST RISK 1 1856GA/NC 90% - Strm#3 2 1857LA/AL - 70% 3 1858W. FL 90% -Strm#3 4 1859LA-AL 90% WFL 90% Strm#5 Strm#5 5 1860 W FL 60% GA-NC 60% LA-AL 60%Strm#1 Strm#1/4/6 6 1861 W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Strm#6 Strm#2 71862 W FL 80% 8 1863NE US 70% GA-NC 70% Strm#6 Strm#6 9 1864 W FL 70% 10 1865TX 70% W FL 70% Strm#2/4 Strm#7 11 1866 LA-AL 75%

23. PHASE YEAR HIGHEST 1 1867 GA/NC 90% - Strm#1 2 1868 LA/AL - 70% - Strm#1 3 1869 W. FL 90% 4 1870 LA-AL 90% WFL 90% Strm#1 Strm#6/9 5 1871W FL 60% GA-NC 60% LA-AL 60% Strm#6/7 Strm#3 Strm#7 6 1872 W FL 70% LA-AL 70% Strm#5 Strm#1 71873 W FL 80% - Strm#3/4/5 8 1874NE US 70% GA-NC 70% Strm#6 Strm#6 91875W FL 70% - Strm#3 10 1876 TX 70% W FL 70% Strm#5 11 1877LA-AL 75% - Strm#14 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

24. Forecast Verification Summary: 1856-1866 Missed 4 out of the 11 years 63.64% 1867-1877 Missed 1 out of the 11 years 90.9% 1986-1995 Missed 2 out of the 10 years 80% 1996-2007 Missed 1 out of the 12 years 91.67% www.wxresearch.com/outlook

25. WRC then used the OCSI to make a secondary predications: • Number of tropical cyclones • Number of hurricanes • Number of hurricane days • Number of storm days To compare the OCSI forecast with Colorado State Professor Gray and Climatology. The following graph indicates the over or under forecast of number of cyclones [tropical storms and hurricanes] each year. If the value is 0 then the forecast was correct. The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or - 1 cyclone. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

27. The following graph indicates the error + or – 1 of the forecast for the number of hurricanes each year. The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or - 1 hurricane. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

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29. The following graph indicates the forecast of the number of storm days +_ or – 10 days each year. The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or – 10 storm days. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

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31. The following graph indicates the forecast of the number of hurricane days + or – 5 days each year. The purple lines indicates the forecast was within + or – 5 hurricane days. www.wxresearch.com/outlook

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33. Summary of the number of years since 1984 that the forecast verified within +- range indicated. WRC OCSI Climate Co. State Gray # of Years the forecasts of the number of cyclones was w/in +- 1 10 3 7 # of Years the forecasts of the number of hurricanes was w/in +-1 11 7 9 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

34. Summary of the number of years since 1984 the forecast of storm days and hurricane days verified within the +- range indicated. WRC OCSI Climate Co. State Gray # of Years the forecasts of the number of hurricane days was w/in +- 5 9 5 6 # of Years the forecasts of the number of storm days was w/in +-10 11 6 7 www.wxresearch.com/outlook

44. Highest Winds on the right of the track Katrina as a Cat 5 on Hurricane Alicia’s track

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47. As a hurricane makes landfall and moves inland, the sustained winds start to weaken as the winds at the surface interact with the rough surface. So the winds in the hurricane that you would see in a hurricane over water would be lower as the storm moves inland. The hurricane also is weakening because it is moving away from the warm water that allows it to maintain its intensity. Maximum Sustained 1 minute sustained wind. Galveston Coast Hobby Airport Downtown Houston Bush Airport 38 mph 28 mph 25 mph 19 mph 50 mph 38 mph 33 mph 25 mph 58 mph 43 mph 38 mph 29 mph 76 mph 57 mph 49 mph 38 mph 99 mph 74 mph 64 mph 50 mph 114 mph 86 mph 74 mph 58 mph 148 mph 111 mph 96 mph 74 mph www.wxresearch.com/outlook

48. Weather Research Center Houston, Texas www.wxresearch.com wrc@wxresearch.org