Coastal and Shelf Seas Working Group (CSSWG)

1. Coastal and Shelf Seas Working Group (CSSWG) Pierre De Mey, LEGOS on behalf of the CSSWG: Peter Craig, CSIRO; Chris Edwards, UCSC; Yoichi Ishikawa, U. Kyoto; Roger Proctor, POL; Keith Thompson, DAL; Jiang Zhu, IAP and of the CSSWG community (38 groups)

2. Oct. 2007 Liverpool workshop The GODAE Coastal and Shelf Seas Working Group (CSSWG):mission and activities • The usefulness of GODAE systems to coastal and shelf seas forecasting is one of the measures of the success of the GODAE project. • The GODAE CSSWG conducts actions to promote the assessment and demonstration of the value of GODAE results for regional, coastal and shelf seas models and forecasting systems: • Continuously updated census of coastal projects worldwide using GODAE products • CSSWG White Paper (79 pages, 3 editions so far) • Web site www.godae.org/CSSWG.html • 2007 Liverpool workshop, attending: US/CAN : NOAA/NESDIS, UCSC, U.Hawaii, U.Miami, NRL, OSU, DFO; EU : Met Office, MERCATOR, SHOM, NERSC, Puertos del Estado, CLS, NOVELTIS, HR Wallingford, IMEDEA, POL, LEGOS, U.Toulon, U.Bologna, U.Athens; JPN : Mutsu ML, U.Kyoto, JAMSTEC, JMA; AUS : CSIRO

3. 38 projects Varied in objectives and methods Geographically clustered Africa: 1 Australia: 2 China Seas: 2 Japan Seas: 3 Indian Ocean: 1 North Pacific: 1 North America West Coast: 4 Gulf of Mexico: 4 North America East Coast: 2 Arctic and Nordic Seas: 3 Norwegian, Baltic, and North Seas: 7 Northeast Atlantic: 6 Mediterranean: 4 CSS projects P19 P18 P20 P21-22 P23-24-25-26 P29-37 P27 P16 P28-31-38 P12 P7 P17 P30 P32-33-34-35 P6 P9-10-11 P8 P10-13-14-15 P4 P36 P31 P5 P3 P2 P1

4. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - “The Questions” • Level of awareness of available GODAE products? • Access to data? • Types of use? • Level of satisfaction & how measured? • Scientific quality of downscaled simulations (comparison with data, extended predictability range, etc.) • Utility for applications & examples • Help expected from a community such as this one? • Other needs for products or help not covered at the present time?

5. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - Some more specific questions • Sensitivity of coastal ocean systems to i.c.’s/b.c.’s/remote forcing • Best type of GODAE product for one particular type of application • Does downscaling add value to GODAE products? Does using GODAE b.c.’s improve forecasts in the coastal products? • Does assimilation of local observations add further value to coastal products? What observations would add value?

6. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - Metrics types (WP) • Final value: utility (for application) -- local air/sea interaction (tropical cyclones), military (sonar prediction), oil industry (platform maintenance, oil spills), nuclear industry (radionuclide spills), biophysical parameters (primary production, fisheries, aquaculture, swimming water quality, sewage spills), sediment transport (beaches), maritime safety (iceberg drift, search&rescue), ship routing --> more a driver than a metric: defines variables to model & look at • Scientific value: impact & assessment -- theoretical (sensitivity to i.c.’s/b.c.’s), quantitative empirical verification (local in situ data, gridded e.g. ALT/SST -> Taylor dgms., Class 1-3 metrics), visual inspection & climatological knowledge (better features with increased resolution, transports at straits, seasonal variations) --> more a concern than a driver: refine strategy, define protocol • Most talks showed dual viewpoint: description of potential applications, then implementation of downscaling with impact assessment, but finalized studies with value metrics still rare • Assimilation metrics (Class 4) still not widespread in CSS systems

7. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - Metrics types (WP) • Final value: utility (for application) -- local air/sea interaction (tropical cyclones), military (sonar prediction), oil industry (platform maintenance, oil spills), nuclear industry (radionuclide spills), biophysical parameters (primary production, fisheries, aquaculture, swimming water quality, sewage spills), sediment transport (beaches), maritime safety (iceberg drift, search&rescue), ship routing --> more a driver than a metric: defines variables to model & look at • Scientific value: impact & assessment -- theoretical (sensitivity to i.c.’s/b.c.’s), quantitative empirical verification (local in situ data, gridded e.g. ALT/SST -> Taylor dgms., Class 1-3 metrics), visual inspection & climatological knowledge (better features with increased resolution, transports at straits, seasonal variations) --> more a concern than a driver: refine strategy, define protocol • Most talks showed dual viewpoint: description of potential applications, then implementation of downscaling with impact assessment, but finalized studies with value metrics still rare • Assimilation metrics (Class 4) still not widespread in CSS systems

8. Downscaling for Tropical Cyclone Prediction (Craig, CSIRO) Large-scale driven variations of coastal circulation in support of nuclear risk management (In, JMSF) Iceberg tracking in Barents sea with model nested in TOPAZ + tides (Keghouche, NERSC) Utility - 1

9. Operational spill from model Anchovies Risk for anchovies Risk estimate of operational oil releases for fisheries (Simoncelli, U.Bologna) Low-salinity intrusion in Florida Bay during dry season in support for mgmt. Decisions in Everglades NP (Kourafalou, RSMAS) Forecast of jellyfish distribution (Miyazawa, JAMSTEC) Utility - 2

10. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - Metrics types (WP) • Final value: utility (for application) -- local air/sea interaction (tropical cyclones), military (sonar prediction), oil industry (platform maintenance, oil spills), nuclear industry (radionuclide spills), biophysical parameters (primary production, fisheries, aquaculture, swimming water quality, sewage spills), sediment transport (beaches), maritime safety (iceberg drift, search&rescue), ship routing --> more a driver than a metric: defines variables to model & look at • Scientific value: impact & assessment -- theoretical (sensitivity to i.c.’s/b.c.’s), quantitative empirical verification (local in situ data, gridded e.g. ALT/SST -> Taylor dgms., Class 1-3 metrics), visual inspection & climatological knowledge (better features with increased resolution, transports at straits, seasonal variations) --> more a concern than a driver: refine strategy, define protocol • Most talks showed dual viewpoint: description of potential applications, then implementation of downscaling with impact assessment, but finalized studies with value metrics still rare • Assimilation metrics (Class 4) still not widespread in CSS systems

11. Coastal-ocean and open-ocean problems are intertwined (Backeberg, NERSC/U.Capetown) (Craig, CSIRO) (Samelson, OSU) (Kourafalou, RSMAS)

12. NOTIDE Adding tides and enhancing representativity of observations on slope (Obaton, MERCATOR) SST - 14-day spin-up from MERCATOR PSY2 (Morel, SHOM) TIDE MODIS Increasing sharpness of SST fronts by downscaling (Ishikawa, U.Kyoto) Making smaller-scale features appear in regional HYCOM SSH (Hacker, U.Hawai’i) Downscaling & adding value to large-scale products

13. Altimetry products (Backeberg, NERSC/U.Capetown) Local cruise data (Davidson, DFO) Local cruise data (Edwards, UCSC) Data-based validation of CSS systems - 1

14. ESEOAT Influence of downscaling and DA at outer shelf mooring site (Kourafalou, RSMAS) Coastal buoy hourly surface currents (Fernandez, Puertos del Estado) Climatological and cruise-data water mass verification (Obaton, MERCATOR) Data-based validation of CSS systems - 2

15. Tracer release to study long-term effect of large-scale solution (Proctor, POL) Seals (Davidson, DFO) (De Mey, LEGOS) Not-so-classic validation approaches

16. Impact of large-scale DA on position of LC and eddies (Kourafalou, RSMAS) Impact of external solution (Samelson, OSU) Relative impact of several large-scale products Quantitative assessment of impacts of two large-scale products b.c.’s (Proctor, POL) Several b.c.’s in NCOM-CCS (Kindle, NRL)

17. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - Metrics types (WP) • Final value: utility (for application) -- local air/sea interaction (tropical cyclones), military (sonar prediction), oil industry (platform maintenance, oil spills), nuclear industry (radionuclide spills), biophysical parameters (primary production, fisheries, aquaculture, swimming water quality, sewage spills), sediment transport (beaches), maritime safety (iceberg drift, search&rescue), ship routing --> more a driver than a metric: defines variables to model & look at • Scientific value: impact & assessment -- theoretical (sensitivity to i.c.’s/b.c.’s), quantitative empirical verification (local in situ data, gridded e.g. ALT/SST -> Taylor dgms., Class 1-3 metrics), visual inspection & climatological knowledge (better features with increased resolution, transports at straits, seasonal variations) --> more a concern than a driver: refine strategy, define protocol • Most talks showed dual viewpoint: description of potential applications, then implementation of downscaling with impact assessment, but finalized studies with value metrics still rare • Assimilation metrics (Class 4) still not widespread in CSS systems

18. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - Metrics types (WP) • Final value: utility (for application) -- local air/sea interaction (tropical cyclones), military (sonar prediction), oil industry (platform maintenance, oil spills), nuclear industry (radionuclide spills), biophysical parameters (primary production, fisheries, aquaculture, swimming water quality, sewage spills), sediment transport (beaches), maritime safety (iceberg drift, search&rescue), ship routing --> more a driver than a metric: defines variables to model & look at • Scientific value: impact & assessment -- theoretical (sensitivity to i.c.’s/b.c.’s), quantitative empirical verification (local in situ data, gridded e.g. ALT/SST -> Taylor dgms., Class 1-3 metrics), visual inspection & climatological knowledge (better features with increased resolution, transports at straits, seasonal variations) --> more a concern than a driver: refine strategy, define protocol • Most talks showed dual viewpoint: description of potential applications, then implementation of downscaling with impact assessment, but finalized studies with value metrics still rare • Assimilation metrics (Class 4) still not widespread in CSS systems

19. Impact of assimilation of glider data off Monterey Bay (Kindle, NRL) < Effect of ALT assimilation on coastal current (Fernandez, Puertos) Sea-ice concentration Class 4 metric, Bering Strait (Bertino, NERSC) Data fitting test (Powell, UCSC) Assimilation in CSS systems

20. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - New topics wrt. WP • Atmospheric forcing strategy: wind/pressure most important forcings on shelves -- concomitant downscaling could be beneficial (HF coastal dynamics, orographic effects e.g. coastal sierras, etc.), impact of choice of atmospheric product (e.g. COAMPS vs. NOGAPS on shelf) • Cross-scale interactions: downscaling strategy must be compatible with coastal wave propagation (e.g. Kelvin wave off California), and with coastal/open ocean exchanges (e.g. Kuroshio meander triggering, Loop Current/Keys interactions); strategy wrt. boundary fluxes of biogeochemical properties between domains • Outreach: Several (many?) examples of CSS systems unaware of/not using larger-scale model outputs • Future: Support for Wide-swath altimetry, need for continued science forums, peer networking -> New WP subsections considered

21. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - New topics wrt. WP • Atmospheric forcing strategy: wind/pressure most important forcings on shelves -- concomitant downscaling could be beneficial (HF coastal dynamics, orographic effects e.g. coastal sierras, etc.), impact of choice of atmospheric product (e.g. COAMPS vs. NOGAPS on shelf) • Cross-scale interactions: downscaling strategy must be compatible with coastal wave propagation (e.g. Kelvin wave off California), and with coastal/open ocean exchanges (e.g. Kuroshio meander triggering, Loop Current/Keys interactions); strategy wrt. boundary fluxes of biogeochemical properties between domains • Outreach: Several (many?) examples of CSS systems unaware of/not using larger-scale model outputs • Future: Support for Wide-swath altimetry, need for continued science forums, peer networking -> New WP subsections considered

22. (Siddorn, NCOF) Ad-hoc HR atmospheric model development for MFS/MOON downscaling (Sofianos, U.Athens) (Kourafalou, RSMAS) Atmospheric forcing strategy (De Mey, LEGOS)

23. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - New topics wrt. WP • Atmospheric forcing strategy: wind/pressure most important forcings on shelves -- concomitant downscaling could be beneficial (HF coastal dynamics, orographic effects e.g. coastal sierras, etc.), impact of choice of atmospheric product (e.g. COAMPS vs. NOGAPS on shelf) • Cross-scale interactions: downscaling strategy must be compatible with coastal wave propagation (e.g. Kelvin wave off California), and with coastal/open ocean exchanges (e.g. Kuroshio meander triggering, Loop Current/Keys interactions); strategy wrt. boundary fluxes of biogeochemical properties between domains • Outreach: Several (many?) examples of CSS systems unaware of/not using larger-scale model outputs • Future: Support for Wide-swath altimetry, need for continued science forums, peer networking -> New WP subsections considered

24. Impact of frontal wave in East China Sea on Kuroshio path variation (Usui, JMA/MRI) Remote forcing from global models: Kelvin wave along Calif. coast (Kindle, NRL) Cross-scale (-grid) interactions

25. 2007 Liverpool Workshop - New topics wrt. WP • Atmospheric forcing strategy: wind/pressure most important forcings on shelves -- concomitant downscaling could be beneficial (HF coastal dynamics, orographic effects e.g. coastal sierras, etc.), impact of choice of atmospheric product (e.g. COAMPS vs. NOGAPS on shelf) • Cross-scale interactions: downscaling strategy must be compatible with coastal wave propagation (e.g. Kelvin wave off California), and with coastal/open ocean exchanges (e.g. Kuroshio meander triggering, Loop Current/Keys interactions); strategy wrt. boundary fluxes of biogeochemical properties between domains • Outreach: Several (many?) examples of CSS systems unaware of/not using larger-scale model outputs • Future: Support for Wide-swath altimetry, need for continued science forums, peer networking -> New WP subsections considered

26. Ongoing in 2008 • Ocean Dynamics Special Issue (L’pool mtg.) in reviewing phase • Third (final) edition of WP in the works in sync with website • Participation to Final Symposium + accompanying publications • Coastal modelling & downscaling • Coastal applications • Key future research priorities • Posters -> call to be circulated in CSSWG community (KWB’s email list) • Proposed Special Session at 2008 AGU Fall Mtg (IGST endorsement sought) • Networking btw. CSS groups -- increase awareness of GODAE/CSSWG web site as tool to connect to peers

27. Ongoing in 2008 • Ocean Dynamics Special Issue (L’pool mtg.) in reviewing phase • Third (final) edition of WP in the works in sync with website • Participation to Final Symposium + accompanying publications • Coastal modelling & downscaling • Coastal applications • Key future research priorities • Posters -> call to be circulated in CSSWG community (KWB’s email list) • Proposed Special Session at 2008 AGU Fall Mtg (IGST endorsement sought) • Networking btw. CSS groups -- increase awareness of GODAE/CSSWG web site as tool to connect to peers

28. CSSWG Liverpool workshop results, OD Special issue Submitted, under review: • Alvera-Azcarate, et al., “A nested model of the Cariaco Basin (Venezuela): description of the basin's interior hydrography and interactions with the open ocean'' • Counillon and Bertino, “High resolution ensemble forecasting for the Gulf of Mexico eddies and fronts'' • De Mey, et al., “Assessment of observational networks with the Representer Matrix Spectra Method...'' • Halliwell, et al., “Impact of GODAE products on nested HYCOM simulations of the West Florida Shelf'’ • Herzfeld and Craig, “Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models'' • Kourafalou, et al., “Evaluation of GODAE boundary condition effects in South Florida nested simulations'' • Powell and Moore, “Estimating the Analysis Error from 4DVAR Data Assimilation of GODAE products'' • Proctor, et al., “The influence of initial and open boundary conditions on POLCOMS in the North East Atlantic'’ Eds: De Mey/Proctor/Halliwell/Powell

29. Ongoing in 2008 • Ocean Dynamics Special Issue (L’pool mtg.) in reviewing phase • Third (final) edition of WP in the works in sync with website • Participation to Final Symposium + accompanying publications • Coastal modelling & downscaling • Coastal applications • Key future research priorities • Posters -> call to be circulated in CSSWG community (KWB’s email list) • Proposed Special Session at 2008 AGU Fall Mtg (IGST endorsement sought) • Networking btw. CSS groups -- increase awareness of GODAE/CSSWG web site as tool to connect to peers

30. CSSWG White Paper, 2nd-> 3rd (final) ed. • 1 Rationale • 2 Coastal and shelf seas downscaling within GODAE • Uses of coastal models • Links between large-scale and coastal models • Ongoing/planned CSS downscaling projects linked to GODAE -> sync w/web site • 3 Issues and requirements related to downscaling -> update by orig. authors • Critical issues and requirements • Open issues -> new: atm. forcing strategy, x-scale interactions, outreach, future • 4 Proposed approach -> CSSWG activities • 2007 workshop report, links with international activities, etc. • Future plans • Appendices • CSSWG and contributors to WP • Details of CSS projects-> link to GODAE web site instead • Details of large-scale GODAE data producers: models, products, data serving strategy-> link to GODAE/CSSWG web page instead • The MERSEA and ECOOP European projects

31. Ongoing in 2008 • Ocean Dynamics Special Issue (L’pool mtg.) in reviewing phase • Third (final) edition of WP in the works in sync with website • Participation to Final Symposium + accompanying publications • Coastal modelling & downscaling • Coastal applications • Key future research priorities • Posters -> call to be circulated in CSSWG community (KWB’s email list) • Proposed Special Session at 2008 AGU Fall Mtg (IGST endorsement sought) • Networking btw. CSS groups -- increase awareness of GODAE/CSSWG web site as tool to connect to peers

32. Ongoing in 2008 • Ocean Dynamics Special Issue (L’pool mtg.) in reviewing phase • Third (final) edition of WP in the works in sync with website • Participation to Final Symposium + accompanying publications • Coastal modelling & downscaling • Coastal applications • Key future research priorities • Posters -> call to be circulated in CSSWG community (KWB’s email list) • Proposed Special Session at 2008 AGU Fall Mtg (IGST endorsement sought) • Networking btw. CSS groups -- increase awareness of GODAE/CSSWG web site as tool to connect to peers

33. Proposed session OS08 at AGU Fall Mtg. (San Francisco, Dec.08) OS08: Advances in the prediction capabilities of interdisciplinary nested models in coastal and shelf seas Convenors: P. De Mey, G. Halliwell, V. Kourafalou, R. Proctor (PDM and RP on behalf of GODAE CSSWG) Numerical modeling and prediction in coastal and shelf seas has greatly benefited from the development of state-of-the-art, data assimilative and data validated large scale models that can supply initial and boundary conditions to nested domains, allowing the resolution of several spatial and temporal scales. The Global Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) is one of the efforts that lead to the development of operational global and basin scale models that can provide modeling support to coastal and shelf models. Presentations affiliated with the GODAE Coastal and Shelf Seas Working Group are strongly encouraged, although all contributions addressing any of the following topics will be welcome. This session will address recent advances in the numerical modeling of processes in coastal and shelf seas and the development and assessment of methods that lead to coastal prediction and forecast. Emphasis will be given to nested hydrodynamic models that employ (a) boundary conditions from large scale operational products to address coastal to offshore interactions; (b) data from observational networks for assimilation and validation. Nested ecosystem models of various complexities addressing the influence of physical processes on ecosystem dynamics and interdisciplinary coastal predictions are also welcome. The session will promote the discussion of methodologies that lead to reliable coastal forecasts (such as data assimilation, error analysis, influence of nesting, resolution and forcing) and the impact of sustainable, integrated modeling and observational networks that connect local, regional and global scales. Presentations that address the related socioeconomic and coastal management benefits are encouraged.

34. Ongoing in 2008 • Ocean Dynamics Special Issue (L’pool mtg.) in reviewing phase • Third (final) edition of WP in the works in sync with website • Participation to Final Symposium + accompanying publications • Coastal modelling & downscaling • Coastal applications • Key future research priorities • Posters -> call to be circulated in CSSWG community (KWB’s email list) • Proposed Special Session at 2008 AGU Fall Mtg (IGST endorsement sought) • Networking btw. CSS groups -- increase awareness of GODAE/CSSWG web site as tool to connect to peers

35. Thank you.