Informal Thematic Debate of the United Nations General Assembly New York, NY 31 July 2007

1. Informal Thematic Debate of the United Nations General Assembly New York, NY 31 July 2007 Climate Change as a Global Challenge Presented by Kenrick R. Leslie The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre

2. Panel 1Thematic Debate on Climate Change: the Science, the Impact and Adaptation ImperativesRound 1PROJECTED AND OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN THE CARIBBEAN

3. Climate trend in the Caribbean region • The climate in the Caribbean region has been changing in a manner very consistent with the observed variations at global and northern hemisphere levels.

4. Climate Change-related Impacts in the Caribbean • Over the last decade the Caribbean has been experiencing: • Lower diurnal temperature variation and much warmer nights. • More frequent incidence of coral bleaching. • Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and becoming more intense in a shorter period of time. • More frequent outbreaks of pest infestation. • More extreme drought and flood events. • More incidence of extreme temperature-related stress events to humans, animals and plants.

5. Barbados Trinidad a b St. Lucia Dominica c d Temperature and Rainfall Trends in the Caribbean • Temperature trend • Temperature records have shown an increase in the last century, with the 1990s being the warmest decade since the beginning of the 20th century. • In the region, 1998 also appears as the warmest year on record • Rainfall trend • Records have shown changing patterns • Floods in some areas and droughts in other areas 1973 to 2000 1973 2000 Variations of land surface temperature for the Caribbean

6. Increasing episodes of coral bleaching in the Caribbean since the 1980s Branching coral Brain coral

7. Hurricanes developing at lower latitudes and becoming more intense in a shorter period of time Grenada Cozumel Ivan developed near 8oN latitude Wilma developed from a tropical depression to the most intense category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hrs

8. The Impact of more intense hurricanes & SLR

9. OUTBREAKS OF PEST INFESTATION Pine bark beetle infestation in the Mountain Pine Ridge of Belize combined with reduced rainfall resulted in increased incidence of forest fires, soil degradation and higher than normal sediment loading in the rivers and deposits on coral reef.

10. Flooding in low coastal areas (One of many flood events Georgetown, Guyana)

11. For a 2oC rise in temperature (Implications for the Caribbean) • Serious impact on • Marine ecosystem • Agriculture • Forest and terrestrial ecosystem • Tourism and other socio-economic sectors • Health

12. Habitat becomes less favourable +1°C Loss of Fish Habitat Yellow tuna

13. Habitat becomes less favourable +1°C Dolphin fish Coryphaena hippurus

14. 2oC Impact on Agriculture Preliminary studies on the impact on corn, beans and rice for future climate scenarios for 2oC warmer and for a +/- 20% change in precipitation is indicated below:

15. For further information please contact us at: THE CARIBBEAN COMMUNITY CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE 2nd Floor, Lawrence Nicholas Bldg. P.O. Box 563 Bliss Parade, Belmopan City, Belize Tel: +501-822-1094/1104 Fax: +501-822-1365 Website: www.caribbeanclimate.bz The best way to predict the future...is to create it ... THANK YOU