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LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities

LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities. Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011. Updated Sep 7, 2011. LAPS Motivation. High Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min) Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide

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LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities

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  1. LAPS / STMAS Verification Activities Steve Albers, Isidora Jankov ESRL / GSD Verification Summit September 2011 Updated Sep 7, 2011

  2. LAPS Motivation • High Resolution (500m – 20km), rapid update (10-60min) • Highly portable system – about 150 users world wide • Federal Gov’t – NWS, RSA, PADS, FAA, DHS • State Gov’t – California Dept of Water Resoures • International – Finnish Met. Inst., China Heavy Rain Inst. • Global analysis – used by SOS • Wide variety • of data sources: OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 2

  3. LAPS / STMAS DA-Ensemble System Built-in Verification Ports with system Data Data Ingest Intermediate data files Error Covariance Trans Classic GSI Analysis Scheme STMAS-3D Trans Verification Model prep WRF-ARW MM5 WRF-NMM Probabilistic Post Processing Ensemble Forecast OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 3

  4. Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations ARL / FRD OK Mesonet

  5. Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations 3-Frames at 15-minute interval

  6. Solar Radiation Analysis Verification Oklahoma Region (past 48 hours) 15 minute verification ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations. 3 km grid spacing 1 km grid spacing

  7. Solar Radiation Web Page Verified at station locations measuring global solar radiation on time scales <= 15min Mean Analyzed / Forecast Mean Observed RMS differences

  8. Solar Radiation Analysis Verification HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series) ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations. Clearer Days

  9. Solar Radiation Analysis Verification HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series) ~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations. Partly Cloudy Days

  10. Downward Solar Radiation Forecast vs. Observations

  11. Matching 1-3 hour Solar Radiation Forecast Cloud Cover Analysis

  12. Solar Radiation Ensemble Forecast Verification HMT Forecast (00-09 hours) ~6 Idaho ARL solar radiation stations.

  13. Solar Radiation Forecast Verification HWT Forecast (00-06 hours) LAPS / STMAS / HRRR + Oklahoma solar radiation stations. LAPS STMAS HRRR LAPS HRRR STMAS

  14. Radar Reflectivity Verification Web Page Verified over various domains of integration for deterministic as well as ensemble forecasts. 3D radar volume data at several reflectivity thresholds. BIAS ETS

  15. CloudSat Verification of LAPS Cloud Analysis LAPS CloudSat

  16. Analysis 3-hr Forecast, Lin μPhys 16 June 2002 Well-Developed Squall Line at Initial time

  17. Bias & ETS June 16 2002 Low Sensitivity in Bias to Variations in Microphysics (developed squall line case) ETS values are highest at early times due to hot-start

  18. Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor) STMAS BIAS (North-East Corridor) Ensemble ETS (North-East Corridor) CONUS LAPS/WRF and HRRR

  19. Forecast at 2011-09-04 00Z NE Corridor Domain ETS Bias

  20. That’s the latest – Questions?

  21. 850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity Analysis 2hr HOT Fcst 2hr NO-HOT Fcst 16 June 2002

  22. Why most of the metadata are N/A?

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