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Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Laura Boothe, NCDAQ Bebhinn Do, NCDAQ June 28, 2005

State Implementation Plan (SIP) Modeling for 8-hour Ozone Preliminary 2009 Results For Metrolina and Great Smoky Mountain National Park Stakeholders. Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Laura Boothe, NCDAQ Bebhinn Do, NCDAQ June 28, 2005. Outline. Review / Background 15% VOC Requirements

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Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Laura Boothe, NCDAQ Bebhinn Do, NCDAQ June 28, 2005

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  1. State Implementation Plan (SIP) Modeling for 8-hour OzonePreliminary 2009 ResultsFor Metrolina and Great Smoky Mountain National Park Stakeholders Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Laura Boothe, NCDAQ Bebhinn Do, NCDAQ June 28, 2005

  2. Outline • Review / Background • 15% VOC Requirements • Typical 2002 and Future 2009 emissions • Attainment test – How does it work? • Attainment test – Preliminary Results • Next steps • Emissions changes anticipated in next set of modeling (2002 & 2009) • Menu of possible control options

  3. Background • 8-hour ozone standard • If a monitored design value is > 0.08 ppm (84 ppb), that monitor is violating the standard • The design value is defined as: • 3-year average of the annual 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour average

  4. NC 8-hr Ozone Nonattainment Areas

  5. Ozone Nonattainment TimelineDefinitions for Metrolina Area Effective date = June 15, 2004 Transportation conformity date = June 15, 2005 SIP submittal date = June 15, 2007 Attainment date = June 15, 2010* Data used to determine attainment = 2007-2009 (Modeling) Attainment year = 2009 * Or as early as possible

  6. Modeling Application Process • Select areas or domains of interest • Select representative ozone season/episodes • Prepare and refine meteorological simulations • Prepare and refine emission model inputs • Apply air quality modeling system • Performance evaluation of air quality modeling system • Prepare current and future year emissions • Re-apply air quality modeling system • Apply the attainment test May 26th Today

  7. Modeling Domains 12 km 36 km

  8. Modeling Season / Episode • Full Year of 2002 selected for VISTAS modeling • Regional Haze / Fine Particulate: Full Year • Ozone: Late May – End Of August • The “higher” portion of the 2002 ozone season selected for the Ozone SIP and Attainment Demonstration modeling.

  9. SparseMatrixOperatorKernelEmissions Emissions Processor Meteorological Model SMOKE MM5 Community Multiscale Air Quality System Air Quality Model CMAQ Temporally and Spatially Gridded Air Quality Output predictions Air Quality Modeling System

  10. State Implementation Plan (SIP) • Need a “SIP submittal” to EPA within three years • Attainment Demonstration that details the State’s plan to bring the area into attainment of the Federal standard • For Metrolina area…must include: • 15% VOC Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) Plan • VOC & NOX Reasonably Available Control Technology (RACT) • Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) • Motor Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance programs (I/M)

  11. 15% VOC Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) Plan • Calculated from the 2002 base year • Cannot substitute other emissions for the first plan • Phase 2 implementation guidance should say what can and cannot be counted towards the 15% plan • Includes reductions from all man-made emissions, i.e. point, area, highway mobile and off-road mobile

  12. 15% VOC RFP for NC Portion of Metrolina Nonattainment Area* * Does not include Iredell County

  13. 15% VOC RFP for SC Portion of Metrolina Nonattainment Area* * All of York County, not just the partial area

  14. VOC & NOX RACT • All existing point sources with potential to emit≥ 100 tons/year (TPY) • NC has pre-adopted VOC RACT rules (2D .0900) and NOx RACT rule (2D .1413) • Will have to update to include entire Metrolina 8-hour ozone nonattainment area • Will have to activate these rules • SC has a statewide VOC rule for new sources with actual emissions ≥ 100 TPY and statewide NOx rule for large boilers (>10 MBTU/hour) • Starting to identify potential sources subject to RACT requirements

  15. Other Requirements • RACM Requirements • Applies to all source sectors (point, area, highway mobile & off-road mobile sources) • Only what is necessary to attain NAAQS as expeditiously as practicable • NC has already adopted some RACM type rules • Open burning ban during ozone events • Expanded I/M program • SC has adopted some RACM type rules • Open burning • Degreasers • Motor Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance programs (I/M) • NC has already met this requirement in Metrolina area • SC working on a program for the nonattainment area in York Co.

  16. 2002 Typical and 2009 Emissions Overview Mike Abraczinskas, NCDAQ Environmental Engineer II

  17. Emissions Inventory Definitions • Actual = the emissions inventory developed to simulate what happened in 2002 • Typical = the emissions inventory developed to characterize the “current” (2002) emissions… It doesn’t include specific events, but rather averages or typical conditions (e.g. EGUs and fires) • Future = the emissions inventory developed to simulate the future (e.g. 2009 for Metrolina modeling) ***Remember… Actual is used for model performance evaluation only! Typical and Future are used to determine future attainment status.

  18. Preliminary 2002 Typical & 2009Emissions Comparison North Carolina Statewide NOx Emissions

  19. Preliminary 2002 Typical & 2009Emissions Comparison North Carolina Statewide NOx Emissions Metrolina Area Includes: Cabarrus, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rowan, Union, York SC

  20. 2002 Typical and 2009 Emission Summaries • Point • Area & Nonroad • Mobile Metrolina nonattainment area • NOx bar charts

  21. Cabarrus County 2002 VMT 2009 VMT 2002 NOx emissions = 19.9 tpd 2009 NOx emissions = 10.5 tpd

  22. Gaston County 2009 VMT 2002 VMT 2002 NOx emissions = 23.2 tpd 2009 NOx emissions = 10.8 tpd

  23. Iredell County 2002 VMT 2009 VMT 2002 NOx emissions = 39.6 tpd 2009 NOx emissions = 18.8 tpd

  24. Lincoln County 2002 VMT 2009 VMT 2009 NOx emissions = 4.3 tpd 2002 NOx emissions = 6.9 tpd

  25. Mecklenburg County 2002 VMT 2009 VMT 2009 NOx emissions = 39.0 tpd 2002 NOx emissions = 71.1 tpd

  26. Rowan County 2002 VMT 2009 VMT 2009 NOx emissions = 10.9 tpd 2002 NOx emissions = 22.2 tpd

  27. Union County 2002 VMT 2009 VMT 2009 NOx emissions = 6.9 tpd 2002 NOx emissions = 14.9 tpd

  28. ONROAD Mobile NOx 2009 minus 2002 (max difference) • Reductions only • Scale 0 to –0.5 moles/s

  29. Air Quality Modeling Results • Bebhinn Do, NCDAQ Meteorologist

  30. What is a Modeled Attainment Demonstration? • Analyses which estimate whether selected emissions reductions will result in ambient concentrations will meet NAAQS • An identified set of control measures which will result in the required emissions reductions • Use the ModeledAttainment Test to estimate emissions reduction needed to demonstrate attainment

  31. What is the Attainment Test ? • An exercise in which an air quality model is used to simulate current and future air quality near each monitoring site. • Model estimates are used in a “relative” rather than “absolute” sense. • Future ozone design values are estimated at existing monitoring sites by multiplying a modeled relative reduction factor at locations “near” each monitor times the observed monitor-specific ozone design value. • The resulting projected site-specific “future design value” is compared to NAAQS. • If all such future site-specific design values are  84 ppb, the test is passed.

  32. Attainment Test • DVF = RRF * DVC • DVF = Future Design Value • RRF = Relative Reduction Factor • DVC = Current Design Value

  33. Attainment Test DVC is based on observed data DVF = RRF * DVC RRF is based on modeled data Future modeled values Current modeled values If DVF is  84 ppb, the test is passed.

  34. Attainment Test • Step 1: Compute a current site-specific design value (DVC) from monitored data • Step 2: Use air quality modeling results to estimate a site-specific relative reduction factor (RRF) • Step 3: Multiply the relative reduction factor obtained in step 2 times the site-specific design value in step 1… The result is a predicted site-specific future design value (DVF)… • If DVF is  84 ppb, the test is passed.DVF = RRF* DVC

  35. Attainment Test Step 1: Compute the current design value (DVC) • The DVC is calculated for each monitoring site within a nonattainment area. • EPA Draft Final Guidance for the 8-hour Ozone standard suggests a few possible methods for calculating the DVC.

  36. Method 1 • Use the design value corresponds to the period used in the attainment designation. • Same steps as determining a design value for designation: • Step 1: Sort all daily 8-hour average maximums in order from highest to lowest into a list for 2001 • Step 2: Repeat Step 1 for the next two consecutive years (2002 & 2003) creating a total of three lists • Step 3: Average the 4th highest from each list or across the 3-year span

  37. Method 2 • Use the design value period that straddles the baseline inventory year. • Our baseline year is 2002; the corresponding DVC would be the average of the 4th highest 8-hour ozone concentrations from 2001, 2002, 2003. • Results in the same value for Method 1 for our modeling.

  38. Method 3 • Average of the three design value period which include the baseline inventory year. • Average of the 2000-2002, 2001-2003, 2002-2004 design value. • This method represents the baseline concentrations while taking into account the variability in meteorology and emissions. • EPA recommended method.

  39. Method 4 • Average of the design values for the 5 year period that straddles the baseline inventory year. • Average of the 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 design value. • This method takes into account the variability in meteorology and emissions without giving one year a higher weight than another.

  40. Attainment Test • Step 1: Compute a current site-specific design value (DVC) from monitored data • Step 2: Use air quality modeling results to estimate a site-specific relative reduction factor (RRF) • Step 3: Multiply the relative reduction factor obtained in step 2 times the site-specific design value in step 1… The result is a predicted site-specific future design value (DVF)… • If DVF is  84 ppb, the test is passed.DVF = RRF* DVC

  41. Relative vs. Absolute • Why use model estimates in a “relative” rather than “absolute” sense? • The form of the 8-hr standard (4th highest averaged over 3 years) makes it difficult to tell whether or not a modeled exceedance obtained on one or more days selected from a limited sample of days is consistent with meeting the NAAQS • Problems with model performance are reduced (although good model performance remains a prerequisite for use of a model in an attainment demonstration)

  42. Attainment Test

  43. Attainment Test • Step 2 (con’t)... Definition of “near a monitor” • EPA guidance recommends considering an array of values “near” each monitor • Assume a monitor is at the center of the grid cell in which it is located and that cell is the center of an array of “nearby” cells • Using a grid with 12 km grid cells, “nearby” is defined by a 3 x 3 array of cells, with the monitor located in the center cell

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