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Adaptation of Gambian Agriculture to Climate Change: Novel or re-discovered strategies

Adaptation of Gambian Agriculture to Climate Change: Novel or re-discovered strategies . Prepared by the AF47 team Momodou Njie, Molly Hellmuth, Peter Droogers, Bubu Jallow, John Mac Callaway, Bernard Gomez and

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Adaptation of Gambian Agriculture to Climate Change: Novel or re-discovered strategies

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  1. Adaptation of Gambian Agriculture to Climate Change: Novel or re-discovered strategies Prepared by the AF47 team Momodou Njie, Molly Hellmuth, Peter Droogers, Bubu Jallow, John Mac Callaway, Bernard Gomez and presented at the Second AIACC Regional Workshop for Africa and Indian Ocean Islands24 – 27 March 2004 Hotel Ngor Diarama, Dakar, Senegal

  2. Relevance

  3. Approach • Literature review • Collection of physical and socio-economic data • Qualitative assessment of coping/adaptation strategies • Crop modelling • Benefit-cost and economic analyses

  4. Some GCM results Yundum HadCM3_A2 Yundum ECHAM4_A2

  5. More GCM results Yundum HadCM3_A2 Yundum ECHAM4_A2

  6. Qualitative Assessment of Traditional Coping/Strategies

  7. Adaptation Strategies identified in The Gambia’s INC

  8. Adaptation Strategies investigated by A47

  9. Analytical Framework Social/Political acceptability Climate Scenarios (SRES) RegCM/Downscaling Land & Water Resources Socioeconomic Scenarios Crop Model Adaptation Options Crop Production Benefits and Costs

  10. Crop Modelling SWAP-WOFOST

  11. Crop Modelling Results Distant Future (2070 – 2099)

  12. Macroeconomic Analyses (1) Stock-to-utilisation ratio = 20% Stock-to-utilisation ratio = 0%

  13. Macroeconomic Analyses (2)

  14. Microeconomic Analyses Yield response for different WUEs 1m3= $0.31 1m3= $0.12 1m3= $0.05

  15. Work to be done • Evaluate benefits of conjunctive use of surface and groundwater • Develop future socio-economic scenarios • Detailed/refined economic analyses

  16. THANKS FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION

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