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Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture

Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture. P.K. Aggarwal Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi, India. Global climate change. Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74 o C during last 100 years

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Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture

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  1. Management of Global Climate Change in Indian Agriculture P.K. Aggarwal Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi, India

  2. Global climate change • Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years • GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) increase, caused by fossil fuel use and land use changes, main reasons. • Temperatures increase by 1.8-6.4 C by 2100 AD. Greater increase in rabi • Precipitation likely to increase in kharif • Snow cover is projected to contract • More frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitations • Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.

  3. Source: IPCC 2007 Contribution of different sectors in world to climate change. (Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions)

  4. What is the contribution of different sectors in India to climate change? (Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in India) Fossil fuel used in agriculture considered in energy sector Source: India’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change, 2004

  5. What sectors of agriculture in India contribute to climate change? Source: India’s Initial National Communication on Climate Change, 2004

  6. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture • Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-40% by 2100. • Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. Loss only 1-2 million tons if farmers could plant in time. • Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard • Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability

  7. Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture • Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N.America, and negative impacts on us • Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production • Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030. • Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects

  8. Adaptation and mitigation framework: Need to consider emerging scenario • Greater demand for (quality) food; yields need to increase by 30-50% by 2030 • Increasing urbanization and globalization • Increasing competition from other sectors for land, energy, water and capital • Climate change a continuous process; greater focus on short-term actions on adaptation and mitigation

  9. Key adaptation strategies • Assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks • Intensifying food production systems • Improving land and water management • Enabling policies • Strengthening adaptation research

  10. Sequestering soil carbon and mitigating GHGs • Addition of organic manures, minimal tillage, agro-forestry • Alternate drying in irrigated paddies • Management practices to increase nitrogen use efficiency • Increasing fuel efficiency in agri. machines • Improved management of livestock diet These strategies have costs and other implications

  11. Facilitating mechanisms for payments to farmers for carbon sequestration • CDM does not specifically include carbon sequestration and mitigation in agriculture • Agricultural GHG mitigation options are cost-competitive • If included in future agreements, would also lead to better soil fertility and higher income for the farmers in addition to the primary goal of carbon sequestration.

  12. Conclusions • Climate change is a reality • Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses due to heat, erratic weather, and decreased irrigation availability • Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts • These need research, funding, and policy support • Costs of adaptation and mitigation are unknown but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher • Start with ‘no-regrets’ adaptation options

  13. New initiatives of ICAR • Thrust areas prioritized based on consultation • A Network - ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climatic Change’ launched in 2004 • Network expanded in 11th plan with 23 centers • Multi-Disciplinary Expert Group established for planning and monitoring • Climate change identified as a priority area for National Agricultural Innovations Project (NAIP) funding

  14. Adaptation framework for South Asia:Assist farmers to cope with current climatic risks • Improving collection and dissemination of weather related information • Establishing a regional early warning system of climatic risks/disasters • Promoting insurance for climatic risk management • Strengthening pest surveillance and forecasting mechanisms • Facilitating establishment of community partnership in food, forage and seed banks

  15. Adaptation framework for South Asia:Improve land, water and forests management • Implementing strategies for water conservation and use efficiency • Managing coastal ecosystems • Increasing the penetration of resource conserving technologies • Exploiting the irrigation and manure potential of treated wastewaters • Forests management

  16. Adaptation framework for South Asia:Enabling policies and regional cooperation • Mainstreaming adaptation perspectives in current policy considerations • Providing financial incentives for resource conservation • Establishing regional food security programs • Raising capacity in global climate change assessments • Securing finances and technologies for adaptation

  17. Adaptation framework for South Asia:Secure global funds and technologies for adaptation • Several global funds for adaptation and mitigation; tap these funds for ‘climate proofing’ of food supplies in vulnerable regions • Climate stress response fund • Adaptation related infrastructure- e.g. food banks • Premiums for climate risk coverage • Payments to farmers for carbon sequestration/ environmental services • Knowledge / technology provision of adaptation strategies, including germplasm / genes • Capacity building

  18. Adaptation framework for South Asia: Strengthen research on adaptation • Assess regional impacts on crops, livestock, fisheries, pests, and microbes • Evolve ‘adverse climate tolerant’ genotypes and land use systems • Evaluating the biophysical and economic potential of various adaptation strategies • Study dynamics of pest movements and virulence • Re-examine water and fertilizer management for adaptation and mitigation • Compile a compendium of indigenous, traditional knowledge and explore its suitability for climate change adaptation

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