Assessing future water availability in western Balkan Blaz Kurnik

1. Assessing future water availability in western Balkan Blaz Kurnik

2. Report about Climate impacts and vulnerability Europe Past trends (1951-2011) Future projections (2071-2100)

3. Trends in droughts Europe Droughts South Eastern Europe

4. Calculating water balance over the large area • A physically based distributed rainfall-runoff model programmed in a dynamic GIS-language • Data requirements: • Climate/meteorological data • Land cover and phenology • Soil type and soil structure (e.g. hydrological soil properties) • River catchment properties (river routings, elevation, dams, …) • Socio-economic data (water exploitation, irrigation, …)

5. Calculating water balance - methodology

6. Water deficit in Europe between 1951 and 2012 - trends Deficit magnitude Deficit duration

7. Assessing climate change impacts Cascade of uncertainties Emission scenario Carbon cycle response Global climate sensitivity Regional climate models Range of impacts

8. Example of water balance modelling Land cover + Phenology (Future scenarios) Ensemble of Regional Climate Models 8 models 24 x water balance Soil properties x x = Probabilistic approach Range of future changes as probability for extreme event

9. Trends in extreme dry events Europe SE Europe

10. The concept of risk, hazard and vulnerability Modelling impacts • “What if” scenarios • socio-economic scenarios • modelling

11. Example West Balkan: Future land use scenarios Scenario 1: The good society in Balkan (low climate change impacts in the region, sustainable economic development), state in 2060 Scenario 2: yes, we can! Technogarden in Balkans (high climate change impacts in the region, sustainable economic development )- state in 2060 Scenario 3: Run to the hills (low climate change impacts in the region, un-sustainable economic development )- state in 2060 Scenario 4: downward spiral (high climate change impacts in the region, un-sustainable economic development ) - state in 2060

12. Changes in water extremes – potential droughts

13. Changes in surface run-off – potential floods

14. Changes in surface run-off

15. Intermediate conclusions and way forward • Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are important tool to assess future climates at the regional level; • Socio - economic scenarios are very important factor in predicting climate associated risks; • Drought occurrence: strong agreement among scenarios and RCMs in southern Europe; • Surface run-off: weaker agreementamong scenarios and models>

16. Intermediate conclusions and way forward • These results are based on on-going work and need to be carefully analysed; • Clarification of criteria on which land cover scenarios are based; • Need for using larger ensemble of the regional climate models (based on the local knowledge) – regional cooperation.

17. Discussion What will be the water availability in WB region in the future, taking into account climate change impacts and land use changes? How can we better integrate land use changesin these analyses? How can use qualitative explorative scenarios in impact models? changes in population, agriculture, irrigation needs, agriculture land use What is the range of uncertaintiesin these projections? uncertainty from RCMs and also from LCC Knowing the importance of LCC information to feed climate change models, can we consider as a good approach the extraction of this information from qualitative scenarios?

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19. Average drought conditions in the future climate 95th 75th 50th – mean 25th 5th Europe SE Europe

20. Developing scenarios Water quantity Modelling Translating between quality and quantity • WB scenarios • 1The good society • Techno garden in Balkans • 3 Run to the hills • Downward spiral • Land use parameters • 1 The good society • Techno garden in Balkans • 3 Run to the hills • Downward spiral 8 Regional Climate Models 24 results (4 scenarios x 8 models) Range of changes of water quantity in the future in WB (per year, per season)