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G lobal Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS-Global)

G lobal Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS-Global). Team: Avichal Mehra, Ilya Rivin, Bhavani Balasubramaniam, Todd Spindler, Hendrik Tolman, Zulema Garaffo, and Deanna Spindler. RTOFS-Global.

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G lobal Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS-Global)

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  1. Global Real Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS-Global) Team: Avichal Mehra, Ilya Rivin, Bhavani Balasubramaniam, Todd Spindler, Hendrik Tolman, Zulema Garaffo, and Deanna Spindler.

  2. RTOFS-Global • RTOFS Global is the first global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at NOAA/NCEP. • This global system is based on a 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) with a Pan-Am Global Grid (4500 x 3928). • The system has 32 vertical hybrid layers (isopycnal in the deep, isolevel in the mixed layer and sigma in shallow waters). • The initialization is based on a MVOI scheme (NCODA) developed by the US Navy which assimilates daily observations (T,S, U,V and sea surface height) in a sequential incremental update cycle to produce analysis. • The daily global ocean forecasts at NCEP are forced with the GFS surface fluxes of radiation, precipitation and momentum.

  3. Motivation • NCEP needs a global eddy-resolving ocean model: • Part of NOAA ocean modeling backbone capability (SAB 2004, NOAA response 2005). • Partnering with NOS and IOOS-RA’s • Part of larger National Backbone capability in strong partnership with Navy. • Internal needs for NCEP: • EMC/ OPC / TPC / WFO’s need for real time eddy-resolving ocean products for customers. • MMAB and NOS need for real-time eddy-resolving boundary data for areas of interest: • Coupled regional hurricane modeling. • Atlantic, East Pacific, …. • Centerpiece of integrated ocean modeling system ( e.g. plume modeling for radionuclide dispersion near Japan).

  4. 1/12 Degree PAN-AM Grid

  5. RTOFS Global: Daily 6 days forecast

  6. Current Status • NCEP is running RTOFS-Global in operations since 10/25/11. • NAVO is delivering initialization data daily. • MMAB/EMC has converted Navy model to be forced with GFS/GDAS forcings. • Multiple data distribution channels are being developed: • NOMADS (operational) • FTP (operational) and AWIPS (internal , under development) • NODC/NCDDC (deep archives) (under development)

  7. RTOFS-Global Product Suite • Class I : Global netCDF files on native horizontal grid but • interpolated to isolevels. Delivery via NOMADS, ftpprd and NODC archives. • Surface 3 hourly files (8 variables) ~ 120 GB per cycle • Volume 3d files daily (8 variables, 33 Z levels) ~ 160 GB per cycle. • Target: General user; maximum flexibility for slicing/dicing data • using NOMADS/OpenDAP servers (both GDS & TDS). • Class II: Sub-regional and basin GRIB2 files on Mercator grid. • Delivery via ftpprd and AWIPS. • Surface 3 hourly files (7 variables) ~ 5 GB per cycle • Target: Internal NWS needs to provide results on AWIPS or via FTP.

  8. RTOFS-Global Product Suite • Class III: Regional (CONUS-East, CONUS-West, Alaska) netCDF files. • Delivery via NOMADS and ftpprd • Volume 6 hourly files (u,v,T,S) • Target: Other centers within NCEP (TPC, OPC) and NOS applications.

  9. RTOFS Global future enhancements/applications • NCEP initialization based on 3dVar/Hybrid schemes (NCODA, LETKF) • Target for next CCS upgrade (2014) • Nested Basin Models • Coupled Hurricane forecast systems for Pacific, Indian oceans • Initialization, boundary conditions, nesting • Potential ocean component for future CFS versions using NEMS • Based on ESMF, NUOPC prototype layer

  10. Salinity at WOCE section A-3 (top) compared to the same section from RTOFS-Global (bottom)

  11. Salinity at WOCE section I-9 (top) compared to the same section from RTOFS-Global (bottom)

  12. Sea Surface Salinity in operations • Near real-time needs: • Better climatology for initialization • Avoid drifts using surface relaxation • Improvements due to data assimilation: • Seasonal variability • Equatorial jets, instabilities • Buoyancy fluxes in Tropical Storms • Model evaluation and monitoring: • Better representation of processes/events (E-P, mixing) • Adequate presence of water masses

  13. Proposed SSS activities for transition to operations • Analysis of SMOS/Aquarius datasets: • Seasonal cycle phases and amplitudes • Inter-annual variability • Data Assimilation experiments: • Impact of SSS data on surface (only) data assimilation • Impact of SSS data on volumetric data assimilation

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