Climate Change - Science, Society & Us

1. Climate Change - Science, Society & Us Graeme I Pearman Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty Ltd Adjunct Research Fellow, Monash University Board, The Climate Institute, START International Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

2. What is the climate-change issue about? • Observed global change • Risk, mitigation & adaptation • Human dimensions Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

3. The climate change issue Energy supply/demand Climate system Climate impacts Aspirations Rainfall Climate change Sea level Biodiversity Efficiency Emissions Population Energy demand Human health Agriculture Choice of technology Affluence GDP • Risk assessment • Beliefs • Ignorance • Sectoral interests • Vested interests • Natural resources • Ignorance • Market failure • Perceptions, conscious or unconscious of: • Wellbeing • Success Culture, education, advertising, promotions July 28, 2011 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness Pearman (2012): Aust.J.Environ.Managment

4. On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction by John Tyndall: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Volume 151, (1861), pp. 1-36 4

5. Oxygen concentration at Cape Grim, TasmaniaDecline due to combustion of fuels slightly modified by net growth of global vegetation 0 -100 -200 O2/N2 ratio (per meg) -300 1990 1995 2000 2005 May 12, 2011 The CEO Circle Melbourne 5 Keeling et al. 2007

6. What is the climate-change issue about? • Observed global change • Risk, mitigation & adaptation • Human dimensions Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

7. Global average temperature is rising Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

8. Mean air temperatureAverage of the past 10 years is in darker grey 1.0 0.5 Temperature difference (oC) 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2000 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

9. Mean sea surface temperatureAverage of the past 10 years is in darker grey 0.4 Temperature difference (oC) 0.0 -0.4 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2000 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

10. Global sea level rise, Satellite measurements 40 20 Change in mean sea level (mm) 0 -20 http://sealevel.colorado.edu and Leuliette et al., 2004: Marine Geodesy, 27(1-2), 79-94.

11. Gravity satellite ice sheet measurements 800 Contributed 0.6 mm/year sea level rise Contributed 0.4 mm/year sea level rise 400 0 Relative Ice Mass (billion tonnes) -400 -800 2003 2005 2007 2009 2003 2005 2007 2009 Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009. Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

12. It is the high pressure ridge that dominates much of our climate Science Teachers for Climate Awareness Australian Bureau of Meteorology

13. Annual average global temperature & intensity of the pressure of the subtropical ridge 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 Global mean temperature anomaly (oC, ▬) Sub tropical ridge pressure anomaly (hPa, ….) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 1900 1980 2000 1920 1940 1960 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness Timbal et al. (2009): South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative

14. The Centennial Drought 13-year drought in the region is unprecedented in: Extent Lower year-to-year rainfall variability Seasonal pattern of the rainfall decline 13% lower rainfall led to a 46% decline in river flow 65% of reduction due to the reduced annual rainfall, 7% to increased temperature, 28% unexplained Low autumn and winter/spring rain linked to: Broadening Hadley Circulation & subtropical ridge intensification Associated with global warming/greenhouse gases Natural variability and ozone depletion also likely contributing factors Increasing rainfall from systems to the north South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative

15. Rainfall decline in SEA since 1997 Anomalies 97 - 11 20th century Anomalies 97 - 09 1997-2011 60 40 Rainfall (mm/month) 20 0 -20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hanh Nguyen, CAWCR – BOM

16. Planetary biology is changing E.g. For south-eastern Australian marine fish Last et al. (2010): Global Ecol. Bigeogr. • “dramatic” warming of the oceans has been observed • 45 species exhibit major geographic shifts thought to be climate related Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

17. Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009 5 2.0 4 1.5 CO2 emissions (Gt C y-1) 3 Per Capita Emissions (tonnes C person-1 y-1) 1.0 2 0.5 1 USA IRAN INDIA ITALY CHINA BRAZIL SPAIN JAPAN RUSSIA MEXICO POLAND CANADA GERMANY AUSTRALIA INDONESIA SAUDI ARABIA SOUTH AFRICA SOUTH KOREA UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE (inl. Monaco) Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010

18. Emissions are on the high side of projections Role of coal High end of projections Affluence and expectations Economic growth in developing world Dec. 02, 2009 Le Quéréet al. (2009).

19. 10 Global financial crisis Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis 100 8 Asian financial crisis Collapse of the FSU Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (Pg C yr-1) 150 US savings & loans crisis Carbon intensity of the economy (g C per $US) 6 Peters et al. (2011): Nature Climate Change: (2011) DOI:doi:10.1038/nclimate1332 Oil crisis 200 4 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

20. What is the climate-change issue about? • Observed global change • Risk, mitigation & adaptation • Human dimensions Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

21. Complexity and confidence (for illustrative purpose only) • Primary climate-change drivers • Carbon dioxide • Temperature • Average • Extremes • Seasonality • Rainfall • Average • Extremes • seasonality • Humidity • Winds Complex & secondary outcomes affected by magnitude & frequency Drought Run off Soil Moisture Soil erosions Salination Sea level Ecosystem & human system impacts Growth rates: Plants and animals Seed quality Vernalisation/ seed set Species competition Coastal inundation Built environment Economic & environment-al outcomes Crop, pasture & agriculture system productivity Ecosystem integrity, genetic richness, resilience Ecosystem services Replacement of built facilities Societal risks Environmental aesthetics, and function, Tourism Cultural values, indigenous rights Human systems management of vulnerabilities Food production, fisheries, crops, pastures, horticulture Human Health Security, wellbeing Intergenerational legacy Key Vulnerabilities Natural systems Water security Fire and drought Coastal communities Bio-security Critical infrastructure and threats to life National security Increasing complexity of systems Decreasing confidence of regionality of change projections Increasing opportunity of adaptive changes to nullify effects Increasing opportunities for extraneous forcing to influence future Increasing identification of nature/magnitude of impacts Decreasing confidence in probability of occurrence Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

22. Risk arises from multiple directions (e.g. food sector) • Change in productive capacity of the land • Tradeoffs: water, food, fibre, bio-fuels, ecosystems • Changes to available natural resources • Ecosystem services, water • Threats to infrastructure • Storms, hail, inundation • Changing impacts globally • Competitors, suppliers, markets • Revolutionary changes to energy • Sources, utilisation and costs

23. Risk Assessment Ri = f(Pi, Mi) T = Σi=αRi Probability of change Magnitude/sensitivity to change Mitigate Potential Exposure Spontaneous Adaptive Capacity Strategy Risk Vulnerability Managed adaptation Resilience Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

24. In this state of uncertainty We have to do the best we can at this point in time by: • Managing the risk • Retaining a portfolio of options • Keeping options open • Regular reviewing of policy/approaches in light of new knowledge Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

25. oC 2050 2100 22 C 7 2050 2100 Equil 6 Energy Security Water availability Food Security Coastal Communities Tourism Heat related deaths Major Infrastructure Natural Ecosystems 5 Agriculture and Forestry Equil 2100 2050 2050 2100 Equil 4 3 2 1 450 550 750 Ref Coping Range Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Pearman (2008): http://www.treasury.gov.au/lowpollutionfuture/consultants_report/downloads/Risk_in_Australia_under_alternative_emissions_futures.pdft.

26. Sorting the options for holistic strategies Cost What are the costs now & when mainstream? Of stranded assets? Delivery to market? Technical and physical feasibility Is it proven or speculative? Capacity to meet demands on time Can it deliver significant energy on time? 4. Capacity to deliver on time Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 26

27. Sorting the options for holistic strategies 5. Is it acceptable to the community? Impacts on: National security of supply Human health Environmental/ biodiversity Community versus vested or narrow interests Jobs Political will 6. Permanency of emissions reductions Sequestration versus efficiency? Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 27

28. What is the climate-change issue about? • Observed global change • Risk, mitigation & adaptation • Human dimensions Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

29. Securing a clean energy future http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/securing-a-clean-energy-future-summary.pdf

30. Securing a clean energy future A carbon price alone is not enough! This is more about a future energy strategy Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

31. Bio-sequestration • The Australian Government: Securing a Clean Energy Future, includes: • Tax/carbon trading • Energy efficiency • Renewables • Farm carbon • The Liberal Party’s policy of “Direct action on the environment and climate change” claims: • Bio-sequestration to be “the single largest opportunity for CO2 emissions reduction in Australia” Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

32. Solar radiation intercepted by the Earth (5.75 x 1024 J) Energy stored in all fossil fuels (3.0 x 1023 J) Content of global atmospheric motions (2.28 x 1021 J) Annual energy amounts Australian photosynthetic capture (7.20 x 1019 J) Australian use of fossil fuels (5.80 x 1018 J) Australian use by cars (7.20 x 1017 J) Australian wheat crop (3.20 x 1017 J) 500 MW power station (1.58 x 1016 J) Fossil formation (3.80 x 1014 J) Hurricane Katrina (1.20 x 1014 J) Hiroshima (6.30 x 1013 J) 12 (terra) 15 (peta) 18 (exa) 21 (Zetta) 24 (yotta) Energy exchange (J yr-1)

33. But this demands an holistic consideration • Including assessment of: • The bio-physical constraints • Rate at which change can take place • Potential for other environmental impacts (e.g. net carbon loss from land clearing, nitrogen emissions, biodiversity impacts, improved agricultural soils) • Co-benefits such as human health, jobs, community coherence • Potential impact of a changing climate • Balance of payments • Security of energy supply • Education, training, community acceptance • Likely economic costs • Innovation based on a narrow focus may deliver unanticipated, if not undesirable, outcomes • Today’s decisions & diversion of public/private dollars may create currently unidentified problems for the future Pearman (2012) Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

34. Climate change belief types in Australia What best describes your thoughts about CC? 5.6% 3.8% I think it is happening and that humans are largely causing it I think it is happening, but it is just a natural fluctuation in Earth temperatures 50.4% 40.2% I don’t think it is happening I have no idea whether it is happening or not Science Teachers for Climate Awareness After: Iain Walker CSIRO

35. It is not just handful of sceptics Public support Scientists identify threat to sustainability Inform risk analysis Inform wider community • Messages filtered by: • Behavioral responses, e.g. • Diverse views of what is rational • Constructivism • Diverse emotional reactions and coping mechanisms • Beliefs: ideologies, just world, conservatism, myths, attitudes etc. • Vested interests/targeted scepticism • Institutional structures, e.g. • Sectoralised society • Non strategic evolution of societal structures Development of public & private policies Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 35

36. Assumptions about rationality Common assumptions People are essentially rational Rationality is conscious (we choose) Denial is a kind of irrationality Irrationality and denial can be overcome by more information Alternative assumptions What is rational in one context may be irrational in another Most rationalities are “stored” in the unconscious Every rationality is guided by emotion De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC Fien et al. (2008): personal communication Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 36

37. Common reactions to learning about severe environmental problems Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do. http://www.psychology.org.au/publications/tip_sheets/climate/ Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 37

38. Rational sectorally- defined description of the real world Rationalism Ideas of the way the world is, based on observation, measurement & rational deduction Rational holistically- defined description of the real world Conflicting bases for policy development Evidence-based policy development Policy development Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

39. Rational sectorally- defined description of the real world Rationalism Ideas of the way the world is, based on observation, measurement & rational deduction Rational holistically- defined description of the real world Conflicting bases for policy development Evidence-based policy development Constructivism Ideas of the way the world is, constructed from & heavily influenced by, subjective perceptions, rules & beliefs The “non-reality world” Policy development Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

40. “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie - deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought” John F. Kennedy (1917 – 1963) Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

41. Social evolution is opportunistic and devoid of strategic direction Convergence Social evolution Success Technological opportunities Social institutions Environment No relation to where the future might best be Diversity Biological evolution Success Time/selection Science Teachers for Climate Awareness 41

42. Characteristics of promising responses for addressing sustainability include (1): • Strategic thinking: • Not stuck with the notion that the way it has been is the way of the future; grasping the opportunities this creates • Leadership: • There will be risks and opportunities; risk has to be managed; being an early starter has advantages • Flexibility: • Uncertainty is a normal state to be managed; manage the risks through ongoing learning, diversity & nimbleness Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

43. Characteristics of promising responses for addressing sustainability include (2): • Markets: • Use them but accept that there are externalities; balance markets approaches with non-market tools • Reflection: • Consider how our expectations, culture, history, education, market economy, advertising, etc. impact on our behaviour/institutions. Much of this is subconscious & changeable; by bringing motivations to the surface we can challenge their validity • Holism: • Rarely are solutions without the potential for co-benefits or dis-benefits. Be wary of sectoralism & maximise value by seeking the former Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

44. Leunig, The Age, July 9, 2011 Science Teachers for Climate Awareness

45. Where to get your facts Australian Academy of Science: The science of climate change: Questions and answers: www.science.org.au/policy/climatechange2020.html Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO: State of the Climate 2012: http://www.csiro.au/Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/State-of-the-Climate-2012.aspx Royal Society of London: Climate change: a summary of the science: http://royalsociety.org/climate-change-summary-of-science/ The Climate Institute: Climate Change Making Up Your Mind: http://www.climateinstitute.org.au/images/makingupyourmind_top10_web.pdf Bureau of Meteorology:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ NASA: Global Climate Change:http://climate.nasa.gov/ US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA):http://www.climate.gov/#climateWatch UK Meteorology Office:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/ New Scientist: Climate Change: A Guide for the Perplexed:http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11462 Deutsche Bank: Primer on answers to CC sceptics:http://www.dbcca.com/dbcca/EN/_media/DBCCAColumbiaSkepticPaper090710.pdf