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Technology Dynamics and Carbon Mitigation The IIASA CO2DB Database and Examples of Its Use

Technology Dynamics and Carbon Mitigation The IIASA CO2DB Database and Examples of Its Use. Takeyoshi Kato, Leo Schrattenholzer, and Bing Zhu Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project (ECS) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

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Technology Dynamics and Carbon Mitigation The IIASA CO2DB Database and Examples of Its Use

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  1. Technology Dynamics and Carbon MitigationThe IIASA CO2DB Database and Examples of Its Use Takeyoshi Kato, Leo Schrattenholzer, and Bing Zhu Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project (ECS) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Development and Transfer of Technologies UNFCCC Expert Workshop, Beijing, 18-19 April 2002

  2. Presentation Outline • IIASA-ECS’s research activities • The CO2DB database • Using CO2DB (two examples) • Summary

  3. IIASA Yesterday and Today • 1967: Initiative of US President Johnson and SU Prime Minister Kossygin • 1972: Create research center (NGO) as a “neutral bridge between East and West” • 2002: Analyze, from an NGO perspective, sustainability and global change in three fields: (1) Energy and Technology (2) Environment and Natural Resources (3) Population and Society • 2002: China’s formal membership supports IIASA's objective of expanding its traditional East-West orientation by a “North-South” dimension

  4. ECS Research Themes • Research focus: Global energy and environmental interactions • Technology assessment, learning curves, R&D effectiveness • Energy infrastructures • Analysis of historical driving forces and scenarios of future global environment-energy-economy interactions • Integrated Assessment of climate change

  5. ECS Collaboration • Since 1981 co-organizer (with Stanford University) of the International Energy Workshop (IEW) • Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) • World Energy Council (WEC) • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • International Energy Agency (IEA) • Commission of the European Community • National institutions (governmental, industry, universities) in Japan, the US, Russia, China, and others

  6. IIASA’s CO2DB Database • A tool for collecting and analyzing detailed data on carbon mitigation technologies • Containing detailed technical, economic and environmental characteristics as well as data on innovation, commercialization and diffusion in some 2400 entries

  7. Features of CO2DB • ECS distributes CO2DB free of charge so that it can be useful to researchers in their individual studies. In return, for ECS appreciates it to receive from users the data they enter into the database. • Users can add to, select, filter, arrange, and compare CO2DB’s data according to any of the technology characteristics included in each database entry.

  8. Main table GEN Economic data ECO Technical data TEC Environm. data ENV Material data MAT Application data APP Literature data LIT Representation of a Technology with Multiple Versions

  9. Classifying Technologies • Classification criteria • Sector of economy (industry, transport, etc.) • Energy input level (primary, secondary, final, etc.) • Fuel input name (coal, oil, gas, etc.) • Energy output level (primary, secondary, final, etc.) • Fuel output name (gasoline, electricity, gas, etc.) • Technology type (efficiency improvement, fossil fuel conversion, etc.)

  10. Technology Data by Sector and Type

  11. Data Sheet, General Information • Technology name • Assessment of data quality • Year of invention • Year of major innovation • Year of commercial availability • Sector • Type • Output • Input • …………..

  12. Data Sheet, Technical Data • Unit size • Maximum availability factor • Average availability factor • Construction time • Length of useful lifetime • Energy inputs • Energy outputs

  13. Data Sheet, Economic Data • Currency; year • Investment costs • Fixed O&M costs • Variable O&M costs • Fuel costs • Decommissioning costs • Total (excl. fuel) • Total (incl. fuel)

  14. Analyzing Data with CO2DBTwo Examples • Calculating CO2 mitigation cost • “Chain” calculations • Estimating technology learning curves

  15. 160 Coal IGCC 140 Coal PC NGCC 120 100 reduction cost ($/tonne) 80 average of Coal PC 60 average of NGCC 40 average of Coal IGCC 20 2 CO 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 net power output (MW) Calculating CO2 Abatement Costs

  16. oil / gas oil pipeline electricity transmission power plant by-input gas Chain Calculations

  17. Learning Curves Cost = A*Cap : Learning parameter 1-2 … Learning rate

  18. Learning Rates of Energy Technologies

  19. Summary CO2DB is a freely available database suited for • Technology assessment • Evaluating JI and CDM projects • Serving as a data source for the development of technological scenarios … among others.

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