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100-Year Level of Protection

New Orleans Hurricane Protection System Overview by Mike Park HPS Program Manager Task Force Hope U.S. Army Corps of Engineers March 19, 2008. 100-Year Level of Protection. Current System Programmatic Schedule. Current Date. Jun. Sep. Jun. Sep. Jun. Sep. Jun. Sep. Jun. Sep. Jun.

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100-Year Level of Protection

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  1. New Orleans Hurricane Protection System Overview byMike ParkHPS Program ManagerTask Force HopeU.S. Army Corps of Engineers March 19, 2008

  2. 100-Year Level of Protection

  3. Current System Programmatic Schedule Current Date Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep CY 07 08 09 10 11 12 Levees, Floodwalls, Armoring Perimeter Protection IHNC Permanent Pumping Pump Repair SELA Interior Drainage Storm Proof Plaquemines Larose to GM Grand Isle Baseline Schedule: Pre-award LaCPR Subsequent Actions Planning Construction Required Funding (10/08) Peak Hurricane Season *Assumes required funding received beginning of FY09 100 Year Protection (6/1/11)

  4. Cost to Complete Estimate • $7.1B – current appropriation provides improved system protection • $7.5B – total estimated additional funds required to restore authorized and provide 100-yr level ofSystem protection and complete SELA • $5.8B – included in FY09 President’s budget request

  5. Construction Status • Total expected construction contracts: ~298 • Awarded 140+ construction contracts for $1.4B • Overall Program Estimate: ~$14.6B 2008 and Beyond • 2008 – Anticipate awarding about 40+ contracts for around $2B • Award IHNC Surge Barriers w/Advance Measures • Award 30+ contracts for Levees, Floodwalls and Armoring • Award 3 contracts for pump station repairs • Award 3 contracts for SELA (interior drainage)

  6. Contract Awards Rescheduled

  7. Construction Complete

  8. IHNC Surge Protection • $800M reallocation approved – all funds in place for award • Project Partnering Agreement (PPA) negotiations ongoing • Targeting award of Design-Build contract March 08 – includes advance measures • Estimating construction start – June 08

  9. Ongoing ConstructionPerimeter Protection • LPV 102 – Lake Marina to Orleans Canal • Raise to 19’ • LPV 4.1 – St. Charles Levee Reaches 1A, 1B, 2A • Raise to 13’-14’ • LPV 103 – Orleans Canal to London Canal • Raise to 19.5’ • LPV 104 – London Canal to IHNC • Raise to 17.5’-20.5’ • WBV 18.1 – Hwy 90 to Lake Cat. PS • Raise to 11’-12’ • LPV 142 – IHNC to Paris Rd. • Raise to 15’ • WBV 15a.1 – Lake Cat PS to Segnette State Park • Raise to 12’ • LPV 148.01 – Verret to Caernarvon • Raise to 17.5’–20.5’ • WBV 14b.1 – Orleans Village to Hwy 45 • Raise to 12’ • WBV 6a.1 – Belle Chasse to Hero Cutoff • Raise to 10’ • WBV 01 – Sectorgate to Boomtown Floodwalls • Raise to 14’ • WBV 02b – Boomtown to Hero PS Floodwalls • Raise to 14’

  10. IPET and Risk Informed Planning Forensic Analysis and Risk-Based System-Wide Assessment STORM SYSTEM CONSEQUENCES Results are “in the Ground”

  11. 27 ft Very Low Pressure Camille-5 23 ft Katrina-3 20 ft Hurricane Intensity Betsy-3 17 ft Rita-3 13 ft Low Pressure 10 ft 7 ft 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Hurricane Size (Radius of Max Wind Field – Nautical Miles) Click Mouse For Animation Hurricane Size Matters All Hurricanes are NOT Created Equal Storm surge potential increases as a function of intensity, size and track. Though Rita and Betsy had similar intensities, Betsy, because of its larger size, had the potential to produce a 4 foot higher storm surge. Surge Potential 37%

  12. Hurricane Paths Considered in the Risk Analysis • 3 HPS Geometries • Pre-Katrina • Current (1 June 07) • 100-year LOP (~2011) • 152 storm hydrographs • 350+ features • Floodwalls • Levees • Pumps Stations • 62,928 Hurricane Hydrographs

  13. IPET Risk Assessment Model SYSTEM PERFORMANCE HAZARD RISK CONSEQUENCES Water levels – surge and wave height at 138 locations 152 hurricanes - 25-yr to 5,000 + frequency Variety of intensities, sizes, speeds and tracks Probability of flooding in each sub-basin Potential Property damage and loss of life caused by flooding Based on pre-Katrina population and property conditions for each sub-basin in New Orleans and vicinity Pre-Katrina, Current, Future Performance of entire 350-mile system (138 reaches, 350 features) Overtopping, potential breaches, rainfall, pumping Index of relative losses in terms of Life & Property RISK = Chance of Flooding from Hurricanes X Loss of Property or Life

  14. Event Tree

  15. Risk Methodology

  16. Click Mouse For Animation Understanding the Flood Maps • Color coding on maps indicates depth of inundation. > 8 ft 6-8 ft 4-6 ft 2-4 ft 0-2 ft Deep Flooding Shallow Flooding

  17. Flood Depth Maps 2007, 50-Year 2007, 100-Year 2007, 500-Year

  18. 1% Hurricane Based Flood Depth Maps Pre-Katrina, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 50% Pumps Pre-Katrina, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 100% Pumps Pre-Katrina, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 0% Pumps 2007, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 0% Pumps 2007, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 50% Pumps 2007, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 100% Pumps 2011, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 0% Pumps 2011, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 50% Pumps 2011, 1% Hurricane Flood Depth, 100% Pumps

  19. Before Katrina, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes • Notes: • The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time, demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values • The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet • The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results • The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of 5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity March 08

  20. On June 1, 2007, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes • Notes: • The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time, demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values • The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet • The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results • The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of 5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity March 08

  21. With the 100-year level of protection, you have a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes • Notes: • The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time, demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values • The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet • The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results • The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of 5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event Assumes 0% Pumping Capacity March 08

  22. Before Katrina, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes • Notes: • The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time, demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values • The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet • The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results • The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of 5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity March 08

  23. On June 1, 2007, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes • Notes: • The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time, demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values • The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet • The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results • The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of 5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity March 08

  24. With the 100-year level of protection, you have a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes • Notes: • The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time, demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values • The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet • The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results • The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of 5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event Assumes 50% Pumping Capacity March 08

  25. Before Katrina, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes • Notes: • The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time, demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values • The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet • The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results • The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of 5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity March 08

  26. On June 1, 2007, you had a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes • Notes: • The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time, demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values • The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet • The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results • The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of 5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity March 08

  27. With the 100-year level of protection, you have a 1% chance every year of flooding this deep from Hurricanes • Notes: • The depth map tool is a relative indicator of progress, over time, demonstrating risk reduction as a function of construction progress • The water surface elevations are mean values • The scale sensitivity of the legend is +/- 2 feet • The info does not depict interior drainage modeling results • The storm surge is characterized as the result of a probabilistic analysis of 5 to 6 storm parameters of a suite of 152 storms and not a particular event Assumes 100% Pumping Capacity March 08

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