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LEOPARDS LEVEL OF PROTECTION ANALYSIS SYSTEM

LEOPARDS LEVEL OF PROTECTION ANALYSIS SYSTEM. Level of Protection Analysis. Definition - An analytical process to predict impacts and costs resulting from a set of fire management policies and budgets.

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LEOPARDS LEVEL OF PROTECTION ANALYSIS SYSTEM

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  1. LEOPARDS LEVEL OF PROTECTION ANALYSIS SYSTEM

  2. Level of Protection Analysis Definition - An analytical process to predict impacts and costs resulting from a set of fire management policies and budgets. Requirements - Must account for variation in fire occurrence, weather, funding levels, policies, and technologies.

  3. Leopards What is it? • Deterministic, spatially and temporally conscious simulation model that emulates the daily fire presuppression and suppression activities of a provincial fire management agency. • Developed and currently used in Ontario.

  4. Fire Management in Ontario • Ontario covers 98M ha - about the size of Texas and Oklahoma combined. • 1,750 fires annually • 276,000 ha average annual area burned. (88% Ext.) • $85M average annual budget (fixed + variable). • Available suppression resources: • 650 fire fighters + 600 short term contract fire fighters • 9 CL-415 Airtankers + 5 Twin Otter Airtankers • 12 long term helicopters.

  5. DEVELOPMENT OF LEOPARDS Initial Attack Model 1983 Lanik 1994 Leopards - 1998 Airtanker Assessment (temporal) Level of Protection (spatial and temporal)

  6. Dispatch Rules • Location Specific • Historical Data • Fires • Weather • Resources • Quantity • Capabilities • Location SIMULATION MODEL • Resource Usage • Deployment • Dispatches • Flight Hours • Costs • Ground Crews • Aircraft • Overhead • Fire Results • Status • Size • Resource Utilization

  7. DAILY PROGRAM FLOW 1.Preparedness - Specifies resource needs and deploys resources at base locations. 2. Prevention and detection actions are taken. 3. A fire is reported (read from the historical data base). Day Loop 4. Resources are dispatched to that fire based on predefined dispatch rules. Fire Loop 5. The fire is fought by the the resources until fire is contained or escapes. 6. A report is completed on the fire. 7. Next day

  8. Sample Analysis • Fixed and variable cost relationships • Equipment comparison • Change of LOP for an Area • Climatic Impacts on fire management costs

  9. Funding and IA Success

  10. Equipment Comparison

  11. Change in the LOP for an Area

  12. Investigating Climate Effects

  13. LEOPARDS - Current Applications • Fire Management Strategy Development. • Business Plan funding analysis. • Proposed Program strategy analysis. • Prevention Planning analysis. • Climate Change impact analysis. • More linked analysis for land management • assessment.

  14. LEOPARDS - Key points 1. Initial attack model has been successfully applied on specific problems. 2. The simulation model has a logic process and defendable assumptions. 3. OMNR is just starting to use program more widely. 4. Push to modify/enhance the model to meet needs in other provinces. 5. Leopards is not a “shrink wrapped” program.

  15. In Conclusion • Leopards is a large scale (regional/provincial) • long term assessment and strategic planning tool • Development continues on several fronts: • GIS interface • National applicability • Simulation Enhancements • Now is able to provide important insights into • fire management options.

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