G.Khasankhanova, UZGIP Institute, Uzbekistan

1. WATER AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: JOINING EFFORTS TO ADAPT Session 3: Reducing uncertainty: forecasting, modelling and vulnerability Integrating environmental flows into water management to reduce social vulnerability - Learning from NeWater research in the lower Amudarya River Basin G.Khasankhanova, UZGIP Institute, Uzbekistan HELMHOLTZ –Center for Environmental Research-UFZ SEI York University UZGIP NIGMI Uni Osnabrück IBE

2. The Amudarya River Basin Case Study Area The reduction and high variability of water inflows to the delta has critically impacted ecosystem services and human wellbeing

3. Impact of severe drought events - vulnerability of people and ecosystems • Extreme events such as drought in 2000 and 2001: • reduction of water deliveries to the delta region by more than 50% • massive crop loss • drinking water shortage • degradation of the wetland ecosystems with 80% of lake ecosystems dried out • Creeping ecosystem degradation • massive increase in soil and groundwater salinization • decrease of income from fish catch by more than 6 times in the last 18 years • reduction of annual dry volume of reed biomass from 1,4 tons/ha (1970) to 0,4 tons/ha, loss of muskrat breeding. The annual damage is estimated at 60,000 $US. • the total loss of the ecosystem services is estimated at 5.2 Mln. $US.

4. The Amudarya Case Study • Major issues that need to be addressed to reduce vulnerability: • Identify measures to adapt to high variability in water flows • Balance water use between different sectors • EU project NeWater addresses the following themes, among others: • Assessment of vulnerability of deltaic ecosystems to flow variability • Identification of environmental flow regimes • Identification of measures for the improvement of local livelihoods and poverty alleviation. A participatory research method was followed to promote understanding and learning on these issues.

5. The Amudarya Case Study Assessment of vulnerability of deltaic ecosystems In mean water year In low water year

6. The Amudarya Case Study Solutions I • Increase area of artificial lakes by 30 %, reserve 5.2 km3 of runoff for environmental flows (compared to 15 km3 needed for agriculture and an inflow of 17-59km3/year) • Stabilize water levels in lakes, enhance water exchange Infrastructural measures (under implementation) Institutional measures (planned and partially under implementation) • Include lake water needs in water allocation planning • Develop incentives for rational water use • Manage tradeoff between different water uses, including legal basis for water sharing among sectors • Institutional development for collective use of wetland services

7. The Amudarya Case Study Solutions II Capacity building/Awareness Raising • Awareness raising among local communities and decision makers • change in perception on social and economic benefits of environmental flows Public participation in water management (little implemented) • Development of community plans and their integration into national level planning • Use of local knowledge for monitoring and development of measures Community measures • Non-grain food production in private plots for household food security and cash income • Active partnership between development and ecology experts for integrating activities for environmental regeneration and income promotion

8. The Amudarya Case Study Conclusions • technical measures of redistribution and efficiency increase need to be accompanied by institutional changes • move towards multi-purpose water use that recognizes the needs and benefits of other water users besides agriculture • Need for awareness raising and change in perception on social and economic benefits of environmental flows • use of local knowledge of farmers, fishers and local communities for monitoring and development of measures THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION