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The Valois Cycle (1450-1660)

The Valois Cycle (1450-1660). Sheilamae Reyes & Luis Fonseca Anthropology 179 02/27/2007. Overview. Demographic, economic and social trends during: Expansion (1450-1520) Stagflation (1520-1570) Crisis (1570-1660) Depression (1600-1660) Case Study: Norman nobility. Expansion (1450-1520).

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The Valois Cycle (1450-1660)

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  1. The Valois Cycle (1450-1660) Sheilamae Reyes & Luis Fonseca Anthropology 179 02/27/2007

  2. Overview • Demographic, economic and social trends during: • Expansion (1450-1520) • Stagflation (1520-1570) • Crisis (1570-1660) • Depression (1600-1660) Case Study: Norman nobility

  3. Expansion (1450-1520) • End of 100 Years War expulsed English from France • Threat to internal stability alleviated with Burgundy state collapse • Lower rates of epidemic • Increase in agricultural production • Higher standards of living • Mortality rates decreased • Countryside was repopulated as abandoned villages from the English wars were resettled

  4. Expansion continued • Elites during the period • Recovered fortunes and income by 1500 • End of civil war reconciliated Dauphines and Burgundians • Increased internal strength in economic and socioeconomic terms and state territory grew

  5. Stagflation (1520-1570) • Population and economy: • The population was double by 1560 from a low, at 20 million • But this was a point just before decline • Population growth outpaced food production • By 1540’s food production reached ceiling in south of France (but agricultural production varied from region to region) • Population growth caused increase in land prices and rent • Peasants were paying ½ of production to landlord

  6. Stagflation continued • This period marked by worsening economic situation for commoners (working poor and farm managers) • Average real wages fell • Agricultural wages fell • Some farmers did well during this period • Inequality grew among commoners, between working poor and farmers

  7. Stagflation continued • Elites and the State • Growing inequality and rise in land costs increased income • Elites able to provide inheritance to sons • Expanded nobility from dividing family estates • For example, the top elite grew from 12 in 1505 to 36 in 1588 • However, elite power to collect revenue declined and led to financial crises in the state, lost control of army • in 1562 royal finances collapsed as there was insufficient funds to meet military expenditures • Civil War

  8. Crisis (1570-1600) • Population growth ceased • Population in 1720 the same as in 1560 • Plague was carried by troops • Famine, weather and civil war • War: within and external • War of Religion • Rebellions

  9. Depression (1600-1660) • Different regions experienced variations in demographic changes • Each region experienced different conflicts • Religious conflicts in South was most intense in 1568, production fell in 1560 • North devastation not until 1590s • North vs. South of France • Expansion in North started after 1450 • South achieved maximum population in 1540

  10. Case study: Norman Nobility • Numerical dynamics of nobility • Ratio of noble to commoner in 1560 show slow steady increase as general population grew at a faster rate • As a result the proportion of nobility to commoner was declining • Nobles peaked in number in the 16th century • To enter nobility status • Land ownership, office, marriage, university, military • Growth of income from agriculture • Revenues from price of grain • Doubled incomes in 1540s

  11. Real Wage in France

  12. Royal Taxation in France

  13. Sorokin's Instability Index

  14. Incidence of Plague in France

  15. Ennoblements in France

  16. Conclusion • Population growth and overproduction of elite caused state breakdown • Example of Malthusian theory of population growth effects • Financial ruin of state, loss of military control, factionalism and civil war  state collapse

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