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Research Methods

Research Methods. Lecture 2: Positivism, its variants and its impact on Economics. Why study Positivism?. Hughes & Sharrock (1997: 24): positivism was ≈ orthodoxy in social science No longer believed? (Williams, 1976) Yet economics still heavily influenced

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Research Methods

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  1. Research Methods Lecture 2: Positivism, its variants and its impact on Economics

  2. Why study Positivism? • Hughes & Sharrock (1997: 24): positivism was ≈ orthodoxy in social science • No longer believed? (Williams, 1976) • Yet economics still heavily influenced • Authors defined in terms of positivism • Positivist tools (e.g. survey) still dominate • Must try to give it a fair hearing!

  3. Roots of positivism • Renaissance/Enlightenment thought of 16th/17th Centuries • Philosophy divided into empiricism/ rationalism: foundation of knowledge experience/reason; Bacon/Descartes • Saint-Simon: liberate people from dominant ideas; French Revolution • Get past illusions to “social facts” (Durkheim)

  4. Comte’s positivism • Influenced by Hume’s attacks on metaphysics • Two bona-fide forms of knowledge: empirical and logical, but empirical emphasised • Precision, clarity and certainty • View world as machine (reflects Descartes) • World comprises deterministic laws, regularities; waiting to be discovered by the scientist

  5. Positivism: basics • Laws: whenever A, then B (plus CP) • Causality: constant conjunctions of events (Hume) • Single cause leads to single effect (Durkheim) • Mill’s tendency statements, Hume’s caution both too weak for modern positivists

  6. Scientistic naturalism • Social science should imitate natural sciences (although why? Never stated!) • Aim for “unity of method” • Differences acknowledged between subject matters • Science proceeds via observation, modelling, to get to laws

  7. Observation • “Brute facts” (not affected by any judgement): mimic natural sciences (e.g. atom, velocity) • Observation is preconception free (Durkheim) and Value-free (positive analysis) • Correspondence theory of truth • Variables; measuring properties present in entities • Quantification: counting frequency of some property present in some entity • Operationalism: object defined in terms of the means of measuring/checking it (Hausman: 14)

  8. Theory development • Individualism; reductionism • Modelling • Testing predictions of models • Verification • H-D model tries to solve problem of induction

  9. Logical positivism • Carnap, Mach (Vienna Circle), Ayer, Russell: trying to make positivism more logical • Meaningful (True) statements must be verifiable • But now analytic statements can be true by virtue of the logical rules by which they are deduced • Yet LP questioned ‘ideal types’

  10. Popper’s intervention • Karl Popper: capturing spirit of positivism in many ways but opposite in others • Sceptic: verification impossible • No theory proven; yet to be falsified • “Scientific” theories are testable • Theories set up bold conjectures to be tested • Test theories by their predictions

  11. Popper’s intervention • Falsification from a single counterexample • Learning by trial and error • Idealised view of science • Kuhn, Lakatos: Popper underestimated tenacity with which “failed” theories are retained • Kuhn: sciences proceed irrationally; normal vs. revolutionary science

  12. Friedman (1953) • Highly influential essay • Can be interpreted as combining elements of positivism with Popper • “positive economics” • Purpose of theory = prediction • Good theories predict well • Simplicity and precision also good

  13. Friedman • Assumptions of theories not important • Assumptions are always simplifications - cannot be “realistic” - cannot assess theory via “realisticness” • Assumptions are shorthand for conditions, etc. under which theory works • Model works “as if” assumptions are correct: e.g. mobile leaves; profit maximisation

  14. Conclusions • Positivism has had several highly significant effects on economics: • Mimic natural sciences • “Value-free” analysis • Causal laws: “if X then Y” type • Quantification • Tools used • Emphasis on deductive logic

  15. Conclusions • H-D model • Friedman also very influential • Assertions about “positive” economics, the role of assumptions, prediction and falsification (echoing Popper) adopted strongly (at least “officially”) • Both subject to considerable criticism • Next two lectures will engage criticisms of positivism and its variants

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