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Schools for Equity in Education Susan Brower, MN State Demographer April 2015

Explore the three big demographic trends that will have a significant impact on school districts in Minnesota. Learn about changing growth patterns, increasing diversity, and the challenges of an aging population. Find out how these trends will affect demand for services and educational achievement.

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Schools for Equity in Education Susan Brower, MN State Demographer April 2015

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  1. Schools for Equity in Education Susan Brower, MN State Demographer April 2015

  2. 3Big demographic trends that will impact school districts Growth patterns within MN have changed Aging Increasing diversity—ethnicity, language, religion, and other aspects

  3. Exurban growthin the 2000s Source: PolicyMap, U.S. Census Bureau data

  4. Population loss along western edge of state, down into Southwestern prairies has been long-standing Source: CURA Reporter, Winter/Spring 2014 U.S. Census Bureau data

  5. Population growth rates have converged over the last decade Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program. Note: Suburban=Anoka, Dakota, Washington, Exurban=Carver, Chisago, Isanti, Scott, Sherburne, Wright Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  6. How many additional “older adults” will Minnesota gain during this decade? Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  7. Unprecedented increases in MN’s “older adult” population Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, MN State Demographic Center

  8. Budget pressures will changeMore 65+ than school-age by 2020 U.S. Census Bureau & Minnesota State Demographic Center

  9. Increasingly our demographics will change demand for services General Fund Expenditures FY 2012-2013 Within Health & Human Services Medical Assistance Expenditures: 25% of GF spending (8.5 billion) Medical Assistance Expenditures for the Elderly and Disabled: 16% of GF spending (5.5 billion) MA expenditures include basic care, long-term care waivers and long-term institutional care Sources: Minnesota Management and Budget, February 2013. House Research, Long-Term Care Services for the Elderly, November 2012

  10. Projected Growth in Labor Force Annual Average, Ages 16+ Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections

  11. Black, Latino and Asian populations growing rapidly Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

  12. Our foreign-born population is becoming increasingly diverse Source: Tabulated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

  13. Large gaps in educational achievement and attainment exist across racial groups Source: Tabulated by MN Compass from Minnesota Department of Education data

  14. Growing child poverty, esp. for children of color Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series

  15. Minnesota by race, 2012 School-age population Source: 2012 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau.

  16. Largest Population Growth Among Asian, Black and Hispanic Groups Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center projections.

  17. Minnesota’s projected net migration and natural change, 2012-2065 Source: State Demographic Center projections, U.S. Census Bureau data used as base population for projections

  18. mn.gov/demography Twitter: @MN_StateData

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