WP5: Modelling

1. WP5: Modelling • Prepare the CH4 and N2O climatologies based on existing simulations (end of november). Provide list of stations to modellers (lat, lon). • Start off with present-day (2003 or 2004) direct simulations based on existing emissions. 3 models: Oslo CTM2, TM5, LMDz-INCA (end of february). • Assess the dry deposition scheme in the models and adapt it to LPJ output (H2) (first year). • Second set of simulations with emissions provided by WP2: KNMI (trop+strat); UiO (trop+strat); LSCE (?). Period: 1984-2004 (except Uio: 1997-2004 + time slices). Anthropogenic emissions: EDGAR FT2000 (month 27). • Evaluation: data: surface measurements (NOAA, ALE-GAGE, Eurohydros, nitroeurope); FTIR (; SCIAMACHY (IASI). Archive daily means (to be checked). Satellite: extract at passage time (eg 11h30). Model format is NetCDF. • Trend analysis of models and observations (who?). • Sensitivity simulations: ex. impact of CH4 from vegetation (to be defined). • Future simulation: 2030 (last year of the project). • Extend the simulations to 2008 (FTIR and IASI).

2. WP6: Inversion and assimilation • First concentrate (1st year) on forward simulations. Compare to measurements to derive the error estimates and variability (error covariance matrix). (3 models). CH4, H2 • Extend CH4 inverse simulation to include H2 (NOAA surface measurements). 1984-2004 (LSCE) • Prepare the 4D var assimilation system based on CH4 SCIAMACHY synthetic data (KNMI, LSCE) (first year). • 4D var CH4 data assimilation using surface observations, SCIAMACHY (columns +avrg kernels). 2003-2005 (KNMI + LSCE). Possibility to use FTIR and IASI in a second phase. • Compare a posteriori and a priori emissions for CH4.