Examining Social Mobility Trends in Scotland: A Century of Change

1. Scotland in a national and international context Cristina Iannelli Centre for Educational SociologyEdinburgh University www.ces.ed.ac.uk/SocMobility/mobility.htm

2. Outline • Brief summary of the existing empirical evidence. • Introduction to the ESRC project Education and Social Mobility in Scotland in the 20th Century. • Data and variables used in the project. • Patterns of social mobility in Scotland. • Education and social mobility. • Long-term changes in social fluidity. • Conclusions.

3. Research Context (1)Social Mobility Social mobility is the extent to which people are in a different social class from the one in which they were brought up.

4. Research Context (2)Social mobility studies • Much research on social mobility was carried out in the 1980s using data from the 1970s. • Most recent data in Scotland with adequate sample size was dated 1974. • New round of social mobility studies internationally in 1990s.

5. Research Context (3)Results of social mobility studies internationally • High absolute rates of mobility. • Social fluidity has not changed (relative chances). • Main influence on social mobility is overall shape of occupational distribution.

6. Research context (4)Scotland in the social mobility studies • Broadly Scotland similar to the rest of UK. • However, less fluid society than the English and Welsh societies, due to: • Higher propensity for immobility within the Scottish working class. • Lower propensity for inter-sectorial mobility.

7. The ESRC research project (1)“Education and Social Mobility in Scotland in the 20th Century” Aims • To provide an up-to-date study of social mobility in Scotland (new data from Scottish Household Survey of 2001); • To investigate the role played by education in the process of intergenerational social mobility.

8. The ESRC research project (2)Main research questions • Has or has not social class of origin become less determining of destination class? • Has or has not education become more important in determining who moves between classes?

9. The ESRC research project (3)Data • the 2001 Scottish Household Survey • the 1999 British Household Panel Survey • the 1974 Scottish Mobility Study (data collected only for men)

10. Variables (1)Parents’ and respondents’ social class Condensed Goldthorpe class schema:I-II professionalIII routine non-manualIV self-employedV-VI skilled manualVII unskilled manual

11. Variables (2) • Social class determined by individuals’ occupational status. • Most recent employment. • Class of economically inactive people without previous employment determined by class of highest income householder. • For class of origin at age 14, higher of mother’s and father’s class was used.

12. Variables (3)Education • No educational qualification. • Lower secondary qualification (eg Standard Grade). • Upper secondary qualification (eg Highers). • Sub-degree higher education (eg HNC and HND). • Degree.

13. Variables (4)Birth cohorts • cohort 1: born 1937-46 • cohort 2: born 1947-56 • cohort 3: born 1957-66 • cohort 4: born 1967-76

14. Results (1)Social class of origin and destination by birth-cohort

15. Results (2)Gender differences • Gender differences mostly relate to the segmentation of the labour market: • The divide between routine non-manual occupations and skilled manual occupations. • Lower-grade professional occupations versus higher-grade professional occupations.

16. Results (3)Absolute class mobility rates by cohort

17. Results (4)Log-linear model testing association of origin and destination

18. Results (5)Education and social mobility • Educational expansion. • Higher participation rates and more comprehensive system in Scotland than in England. • Have these trends had an equalising effect on social mobility patterns?

19. Results (6)Educational expansion

20. Results (7) The intermediary role of education • The association between social origin and education has remained constant across cohorts. • Education variable does not explain most of the association of origin and destination. • OD association is weaker at higher levels of education. • Extent to which education explains OD association rose in the first two cohorts but then fell in the final cohorts.

21. Results (8) A long-term perspective • The 1974 Scottish Mobility Survey data: • Cross-sectional survey of men aged 20-64 resident in Scotland and Inner Isles. • Parental occupation and respondents’ occupation. • Our sample: men born between 1910 and 1949.

22. Results (9) Comparing data for men from two time points

23. Results (10)Changes in the strength of the OD association

24. Scotland in an international context Graph presented by Richard Breen in the seminar on Education and Social Mobility, Edinburgh, 8/10/04

25. Conclusions (1) • Scotland is similar to many developed countries. • Rise in upward mobility has stopped, and process may be going into reverse because of prior upward mobility of parents. • This is still driven mainly by shape of occupational distribution, not by changes in fluidity.

26. Conclusions (2) • Education does not account for most of the association between class of origin and class of destination. • Long-term changes in the association between social class of origin and social class of destination have occurred. • Changes in social fluidity are very slow.