General Report on WWRP Gilbert Brunet and David Burridge World Weather Research Programme WGNE-26

1. General Report on WWRP Gilbert Brunet and David Burridge World Weather Research Programme WGNE-26 18-22 October 2010, Tokyo, Japan

2. World Weather Research Programme: Long-term objectives • To improve public safety and economic productivity by accelerating research on the prediction of high-impact weather; • To demonstrate improvements in the prediction of weather, with emphasis on high-impact events through the exploitation of advances in scientific understanding, observational network design, data assimilation and modelling techniques and information systems; • To improve understanding of atmospheric processes of importance to weather forecasting through the organization of focused research programmes (e.g. WWRP SP); • To encourage the utilization of relevant advances in weather prediction systems to the benefit of all WMO Programmes and all Members.

4. SERA Scope and Research Priorities The primary purpose of the WG SERA is to advance the science of the social and economic application of weather-related information and services. This will be accomplished in part through the development, review and promotion of societal and economic-related demonstration projects focused on high-impact weather (HIW) and information.

5. The new WWRP Joint Science Committee • Gilbert Brunet, JSC Chair, Director of Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada • Ernest Asi Afiesimama, Head of International Relations and Environmental / Climate Predictions of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency • Randy Dole, Deputy Director for Research, NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division • Veronique Ducrocq, Director of Mesoscale Meteorological Research Division, CNRM, Météo-France • Brian Golding, Head of Forecasting and Research Development, UKMO • Dong-Kyou Lee, Professor, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, College of Natural Sciences , Seoul National University

6. The new WWRP Joint Science Committee • Martin Miller, , Endangered Species Division, ECMWF • David Parsons, Director, School of Meteorology of Oklahoma University • Celeste Saulo, Professor and Chair, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Buenos Aires • Neville Smith, Deputy Director of Australia Bureau of Meteorology

7. Tropical Meteorological Research • An update of possible consequences of climate change on tropical cyclones has been completed and published by the TC Panel’s Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Cyclones in the March 2010 issue of the peer-reviewed journal Nature Geoscience. • The experts concluded that the total number of tropical cyclones worldwide will likely either decrease or remain unchanged. However, a likely increase in tropical cyclone intensity means that the frequency of the strongest tropical cyclones will more likely than not increase under the projected warming scenarios. • The e-print of the full article is now available online at: • http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/tmr/ETClimateImpactsOnTCs.html

8. The Way Forward (e.g. WWRP Open conference?): Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., October 2010 • An Earth-system prediction initiative for the 21st century Shapiro, Melvyn A., Jagadish Shukla, Gilbert Brunet, Carlos Nobre, Michel Béland, Randall Dole, Kevin Trenberth, Richard Anthes, Ghassem Asrar, Leonard Barrie, Philippe Bougeault, Guy Brasseur, David Burridge, Antonio Busalacchi, Jim Caughey, Delaing Chen, John Church, Takeshi Enomoto, Brian Hoskins, Øystein Hov, Arlene Laing, Hervé Le Treut, Jochem Marotzke, Gordon McBean, Gerald Meehl, Martin Miller, Brian Mills, John Mitchell, Mitchell Moncrieff, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Haraldur Olafsson, Tim Palmer, David Parsons, David Rogers, Adrian Simmons, Alberto Troccoli, Zoltan Toth, Louis Uccellini, Christopher Veldenand John M. Wallace. • Toward a seamless process for the prediction of weather and climate: the advancement of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction Brunet, G., M. A. Shapiro, B. Hoskins, M. Moncrieff, R. Dole, G. N. Kiladis, B. Kirtman, A. Lorenc, B. Mills, R. Morss, S. Polavarapu, D. Rogers, J. Schaake, and J. Shukla. • Addressing the complexity of the Earth system Nobre, Carlos, Guy P. Brasseur, Melvyn A. Shapiro, Myanna Lahsen, Gilbert Brunet, Antonio J. Busalacchi, Kathy Hibbard, Kevin Noone and Jean Ometto. • Toward a new generation of world climate research and computing facilities Shukla, J., T.N. Palmer, R. Hagedorn, J. Kinter, J. Marotzke, M. Miller and J. Slingo

9. WWRP and WGNE • Verification • The main areas of research include developing improved verification methods for high-impact weather forecasts and seamless prediction of direct relevance to society, such as air quality predictions; • We need to coordinate these activities with the JWG Verification Research. • Link to operational NWP Centres • One aspect of the future work of WGNE is an increased role in model development including efforts to improve the physical/dynamical parameterizations of subgrid scale processes; • WGNE plays a crucial role in ensuring the link between the research community and the key operational NWP centres; • Hence strong collaboration between WWRP and WGNE is essential for WWRP goals through supporting the plans of the WWRP working groups (Mesoscale Forecasting Research, Tropical Meteorological Research) and THORPEX (especially DA).

10. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway • To establish a basis for an IPY legacy project for co-operative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather, climate and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions. • Three forecast prediction ranges are of interest: • Short-term regional forecasts (one hour to 48 hours) • Medium-range forecasts (one day to two weeks) • Sub-seasonal to one season forecasts • Identified “gaps” show that many of the problems are common to all prediction systems whatever the range – notably, problems with the parametrization of atmospheric, oceanic and land-surface physical processes.

11. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway • Improving Polar Predictions - General Recommendations • Formal inter-comparison of polar predictions (pole-wards of 60oN and 60oS) using the existing WMO procedures and, if necessary, the adoption of new metrics for these comparisons. • Strengthening verification activity utilizing operational and research data bases such as the TIGGE data bases

12. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway • Improving Polar Predictions - General Recommendations • “Data mining” to catalogue existing databases and reports – this may require the establishment (or nomination) of a few archive centres to manage IPY data, data from past campaigns etc. and to provide visualization capabilities • There is requirement for new observations for the Polar Regions (with real-time availability) • There is an urgent need for concerted physical process studies which will need new field campaigns (e.g. WWRP Research Development Projects)

13. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway • Improving Polar Predictions - Scientific Challenges • A clear need for more, improved and better utilization of observations, but crucial need for improvements in modelling at all ranges: • Coupled modelling – involving snow, sea-ice and the ocean processes • Physical processes – the Planetary Boundary Layer and clouds (more accurate specification of aerosol and its role in cloud formation being particularly relevant for Polar Regions) • Physical processes – free atmosphere (e.g. mixed-phase clouds)

14. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway • Improving Polar Predictions - Scientific Challenges • A clear need for more, improved and better utilization of observations, but crucial need for improvements in modelling at all ranges: • Physical processes – orographic effects and their numerical representation • Physical processes – sea-ice and ocean • It is recommended that efforts to carry out high-resolution regional re-analyses with coupled models for polar regions be strengthened.

15. An example: Improving Polar Predictions: issues discussed on snow processes • Snow albedo (function of ageing and temperature, aerosols, black carbon) • Snow fraction • Snow thermal insulation, more generally fluxes • Limiting factor: Knowledge vs data • Snow-vegetation interaction • Surface roughness (over ice ridges) • Mass balance • Importance of blowing snow (visibility) • Parameterization of sublimation • Use of “A-train” for validation studies • Issues for NWP: (1) initialization; ; (2) use of schemes developed for climate models; and (3) snow over sea-ice

16. An example: overview of ice ocean processes

17. Ocean Ice Processes Examples of key processes Ocean: Polynyas and their role in heat and moisture fluxes Tides Ice: Dynamic ice cover allows ice-free water to open up, buffering atmospheric temperatures Effect of ice deformation in the marginal ice zone on surface roughness Melt ponds (ice albedo)

18. Tides • Importance of tides in ice-covered seas has been noted as early as Sverdrup (1926). • However, complex interactions with sea ice not fully understood. • Main effects: • Tidal fracturing opens and closes leads allowing greater ocean heat loss, more growth of ice, and more mobility for the ice cover • Polynyas: e.g. • “Great Siberian Polynya” • Gulf of St. Lawrence & Hudson Bay • Likely anywhere in Arctic where steep bathymetry is present Interaction of tides with grounded icebergs “Great Siberian Polynya” Bareiss & Gorgen (2005)

19. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway • Improving Polar Prediction – establishment of an IPY legacy project • A IPY legacy project would provide a valuable framework to foster co-operative international research and development efforts to improve high impact weather and environmental prediction capabilities for the Polar Regions. • This legacy project should be based on a few NWP internationally coordinated polar initiatives (new or existing). • Joint field campaigns and more long term activities for verification (e.g. weather and ice forecasts) and optimal utilization of satellite-based (e.g. Concordiasi) and in-situ observations that involve nations operating NWP systems for the Polar Regions are examples.

20. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway • Improving Polar Prediction – establishment of an IPY legacy project • A new IPY legacy project should tap into the scientific and human capacity of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, who have the interest in scientific, societal and economic applications for Polar Regions and should include the participation of the WWRP, THORPEX and the WCRP communities of scientists. • The success of the IPY legacy project will also depend on the ability to provide information that impacts user decision making and this will need coordination with WMO WIS and CBS.

21. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway • Improving Polar Prediction – establishment of an IPY legacy project • Additionally support would be needed from : • Global Observing System of the World Weather Watch (GOS/WWW) - physical parameters of the atmosphere; • Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) - chemical parameters of atmosphere, including ozone; • Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) - physical, chemical and biological parameters of the ocean; • World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) • Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) - hydrological cycle parameters (GTN-H); • GCOS Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) and GCOS Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) – parameters of cryosphere.

22. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway • Final recommendations • Based on the outcome of this workshop and the feedback from WMO Executive Council panel on Polar Observations, Research and Services (EC-PORS) and potential partners, a Joint Polar Prediction Project, similar to the Year Of Tropical Convection (YOTC) project, supported by WWRP, WCRP and THORPEX should be established. • This project will require a Steering Group (consisting of members with scientific and operational expertise and representatives of the user community).

23. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway • Final recommendations • The first task for the Steering Group will be the preparation of an Implementation Plan which is consistent with the outcome of this Workshop and which includes estimates of resources and a strategy for the coordination of Polar Prediction research. • Eventually, if the YOTC model is followed, a Project Office should be established at an institution with a major interest in Polar prediction

24. A WWRP, THORPEX, WCRP Workshop “Improvement of weather and environmental prediction in Polar Regions”, 6 to 8 October 2010, Oslo, Norway Communications The outcomes of the workshop should be reported to meetings of the EC-PORS (Hobart, October 2010), the WGNE meeting (Tokyo, October 2010), the WCRP Polar Workshop (Bergen, October 2010), the WWRP/JSC (Geneva, January 2010), the WCRP/JSC and the THORPEX ICSC.

25. Thank you very much! Domo arigato!!