Climate change: What is happening and what does it mean?

1. Climate change:What is happening and what does it mean? Andrew Watkinson LWEC Director Durham 02 March 2011

2. Observations

3. Historical climate change CO2 Inferred temperature °C T CH4 0 100 200 300 400 Age (kY BP)

4. Climate is changing The temperature changes are similar on land and sea LAND SEA Source: Met Office

5. Global temperature change Different data sets produce similar results Source NASA

6. Rates of temperature change Rates of change depend on the time period Source IPCC AR4 WG1

7. Has global warming stopped? Global temperature according to NASA GISS data since 1980

8. Regional warming Mean surface temperature change (°C) for 2001-2007 relative to 1951-1980 Trend in ocean surface temperature (°C) from 1959 to 2008

9. And in the UK? The Central England Temperature has risen by about one degree since 1980, a more rapid rise than that of global mean temperature The change in temperature between 1961 and 2006

10. And in 2010? Source: NOAA

11. Impacts: changing sea level Satellite altimetry Tide gauge measurements • From 1961 to 2003 the average rate of global sea level rise was 1.8 ± 0.5 mm yr–1 • From 1993 to 2003, the rate of sea level rise is estimated from observations with satellite altimetry as 3.1 ± 0.7 mm yr–1 • It is not clear whether the recent trend reflects decadal variability or an increase in the longer term trend IPCC 2007

12. Impacts: Changing sea ice Arctic sea ice extent (Sept min: millions km2)

13. Impacts: changing distributions Warm-temperate species Temperate species Plankton species SAHFOS 2007/8 report

14. Ocean acidification • A decrease in surface ocean pH by an average of 0.1 units since 1750. • Observations of pH for the last 20 years show trends of decreasing pH at a rate of 0.02 pH units per decade. CO2 in atmosphere CO2 levels ppm CO2 in seawater pH pH

15. Climate change impacts PhysicalBiological Global Source IPCC AR4

16. Attributing change Understanding and attributing climate change Source: IPCC 2007

17. Greenhouse gases Carbon dioxide Methane 10000 5000 0 10000 5000 0 Time before 2005

18. The greenhouse effect

19. Sound science the scientific basis for climate change is well established …

20. Looking forward Uncertainty and risk

21. Changes in precipitation 90% GCMs agree • 0 - 30 (-60)% increase in winter precipitation • 0 - 40% decrease in summer precipitation

22. Increasing sea levels Sea level is likely to rise much more by 2100 than the often-cited range of 18-59 cm from the IPCC AR4.

23. And in the UK? 10, 50 and 90% probability levels of changes to the average daily mean temperature (ºC) of the winter and summer by the 2080s, under the Medium emissions scenario.

24. Future temperatures A future scenario: European 2003 heatwave could be normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s

25. Projected impacts Water Ecosystems Food Coast Health Events Source: Parry et al 2008

26. Are we exaggerating the change? • A comparison of IPCC (2001) projections with observations from the year 1990 • CO2 observations follow the projections almost exactly • Temperature is in the upper part of the projected range • Observed sea level has been rising faster than the model projections • IPCC have not exaggerated change and in some respects may have underestimated the change Rahmstorf et al. 2007 Science

27. Do we agree? 97-98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of anthropogenic climate change outlined by the IPCC

28. What is the debate about? • Climate gate • IPCC (glaciers) • Mild winters

29. What should we do?

30. Action: reducing emissions Source • Energy (61.3%) • Land use (18.2%) • Industrial processes (3.4%) • Agriculture (13.5%) • Waste (3.6%) Examples of global emission pathways where cumulative CO2 emissions equal 750 Gt during the time period 2010-2050 (1 Gt C = 3.67 Gt CO2). At this level, there is a 67% probability of limiting global warming to a maximum of 2°C.

31. Targeting demand Fuel Production, Extraction &Transport Electricity Consumption Light Transmission Powerstation 10 50 54 120 133 Source: Kevin Anderson

32. Managing demand: behaviour • Abatement offers a net economic benefit of ≈$36 per-tonne CO2e in 2030 • Achieving meaningful reductions in passenger vehicle emissions will be challenging • large upfront investment needed • substantial barriers to changing consumer behaviour • need for timely action Driving behaviour Traffic flow Total distance McKinsey and Co. 2009

33. Efficiency and regulation (without rebound) • UK mean car emissions ~180g/km (new ~155g/km) • EU 2015 plan 130g/km • Current performance • 2010 BMW 3 series 160BHP diesel 109g/km • 2010 VW, SKODA etc 85-99g/km • 2010 Audi A3 3 Sportback ~ 109g/km • 2010 Toyota Prius 1.8 89 g/km • ~8 year penetration of new cars … ~90% of vehicle-km 50% CO2 reduction by 2020 with no new technology Add reversed trend in occupancy ~ 70% by 2020

34. Technical innovation The Consensus Product Roadmap, mutually agreed by OEMs, defines future direction to develop products that will benefit UK plc • 72 projects • 200 partners • £100 m grants generating £250 m project value TSB Low Carbon Vehicles IP

35. Difficult choices

36. Transforming the energy supply SEI 2009

37. Geoengineering options Giant reflectors in orbit Chemicals to save ozone Cloud seeding Aerosols in stratosphere Grow trees GM crops Iron fertilisation in sea Greening deserts Pump liquid CO2 into deep sea Pump liquid CO2 into rock IGBP 2009

38. Adaptation Ranger et al 2009

39. Robust adaptation

40. Managing the risk Foresight flood risk 2005: £575m per year 2035: £1 billion per year But ..... Flooding from intense rainfall events Source: Evans et al. 2004

41. Responding to change Risk management plans Governance lies at the heart of our response Leadership and responsibility Linking and co-ordination of planning processes Meeting the challenge of environmental change Education and knowledge exchange Legislation, regulation and enforcement Information and good science Support networks Finance National frameworks and localism Source: Emma Tompkins

42. Summary • Is our current climate changing? • What is causing climate to change? • What should local and global environmental and climate change priorities be? • What is the strength of the consensus of man-made climate change compared with natural climate change? • How to interpret scientific uncertainty? • The scientific nature of the issue versus the need to get all people engaged • What is the role of local government is, given their responsibilities for the well being of their residents and businesses? • Should the focus be on adaptation or mitigation? • If we grasp the issue there are considerable opportunities for both business and society Yes Anthropogenic greenhouse gases Mitigation and adaptation Very strong Risk management framework Scientific message clear. Local action within national framework 8 functions Both

43. The LWEC partnership Aims to ensure that decision makers in government, business and society have the knowledge, foresight and tools to mitigate, adapt to and benefit from environmental change