Southern European Seas: Assessing and Modelling Ecosystem changes

1. Southern European Seas: Assessing and Modelling Ecosystem changes

2. Scientific Objectives • Assess the changes or regime shifts in the SES ecosystems over the last 50 years and assess the potential mechanisms that relate these changes to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings. • Assess the current status of the SES ecosystems through analysis of existing and newly collected data as well as through model simulations. • Predict changes in the SES ecosystem responses to likely changes in climate and anthropogenic forcings during the next five decades. • Assess and predict changes in the ability of the ecosystems to provide goods and services (with potentially high societal importance). • Goods: tourism and fisheries • Services: ecosystem stability through conservation of biodiversity, and mitigation of climate change through carbon sequestration

3. Temperature differences by 1.5 oC in the past 20 years in the Aegean Sea Assessing the past changesCollection of existing datasets (more than 300) on: Seawater T, S, DO, Nutrients, DOCPhytoplankton & Zooplankton Fish stock biomass Habitat Types Biodiversity & Alien Species Geochemical parameters Budgets of atmospheric and river inputsValidation of modelsAssessmentLimitations: Few data sets on continuous basis Raitsos et al, 2010

4. Temperature differences by 1.5oC in the past 20 years in the Aegean Sea r2=0.68, P= 0.0099 Invasive species SST Raitsos et al, 2010

5. River inputs of nutrients ...In addition to climate, other changes should be accounted for... e.g.: the land based nutrient inputs into SES Affected also by environmental policy. e.g. the reduction of phosphates in river waters Atmospheric inputs of DIN and DIP comparable to river discharges. Ludwig et al (2009)

6. Posidoniaoceanica Meadows ~1/3 of Posidoniaoceanicameadows have been lost in the last 50 years. The density of P. oceanica seems to be decreased by about 50% Counting the decrease of the Posidonia meadows, CO2 sequestration in the Mediterranean seems to be less by 1/3 Marbà, Díaz-Almela and Duarte, in prep.

7. RO BG RU FR ES IT TU GR TR IS New data sets -Transects of expeditions Sediment traps Intercalibration stations Ten vessels simultaneously conducted multinational cruises March-April & August-September 2008

8. Collection of existing and new data in sub-regional seas Western Black Sea shelf ecosystem NW Mediterranean shelf ecosystem North-eastern Black Sea shelf ecosystem TSS and N. Aegean Sea exchange Sicily Straits exchange Gibraltar Strait and Alboran Sea exchange Eastern Mediterranean shelf ecosystem 3 cruises 3 cruises 3 cruises 2 cruises + NURCcruise 1+2cruises gliders 5 cruises, 3 in Haifa Section More than 30 cruises in regions of socio-economic interest CO2 air-sea exchange Atmospheric measurements

9. Current status • Impact of EMT (on the nutrient concentrations) • Increased nutrient inputs • Atmospheric inputs important to the budgets BS State: recovering after the 90’s Similar zooplankton abundance - different sp • Deepening of the Deep Chl Maximum • Depletion of nutrients and decrease in conc • Prevalence of smaller size fractions of phytoplankton with autotrophic prokaryotes becoming important in the East • Mesozooplankton variability Marked seasonality CS measurements indicate that there is significant natural capacity of the seafloor of the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea to absorb and store atmospheric CO2

10. Current Status of the Black Sea • Average water temperature in the upper 100m layer higher than any historical value • Hydrological structure and dynamics of the waters determine hydrochemical structure and the quantitative characteristics of species of plankton and nekton in the pelagic zone • NE and South: P-limited in winter while N-limited in fall • West: P-limited in both seasons • Rates of primary production in the W part were 2-3 times higher compared to the E part • Productivity decreased towards the open sea, reaching a range of oligotrophy–mesotrophy. Synthesis Deliverable 10.6.2

11. Predict Ecosystem Changes2030-2050 -regional models, 2080-2100 -basin scale models • In 2050, 1/4 of the freshwater inputs compared to 1960 will be lost in the Med • Nutrients variability may regionally decrease in the N but strongly increase in S & E • The 21st century will be “warmer” and the vertical structure of the water column will increase its stability (longer permanence of the mixed layer in the euphotic but reduced nutrient supply from the deeper ocean ) • The 21st century Mediterranean thermohaline circulation seems to slow down with respect to current conditions, in particular the deep circulation and so the deep Mediterranean parts seem to be more ‘stagnant’ • Progressive warming evolves with a northward shift of the surface isotherm, potentially paving the way for meridionalization processes in the basin • Indigenous species with warm-water affinity expand their habitat ranges northward, sometimes at the expenses of the residential cold-water species (tropicalization)

12. Loss of important Mediterranean carbon sinks. The forcasted seawater warming will lead to the functional extinction of Posidoniaoceanicain the Balearic region. Time evolutionof Posidonia oceanica shootdensity relative to currentdensity for different simulations, consideringwarming and contaminationimpacts. The expectedevolution assuming no contamination. The shadowed areasrepresent the uncertainty ranges(estimated ad the 90% of theMontecarlo distribution). Jorda et al (2012)

13. Changes in the ability of the SES ecosystems to provide goods and services ‏ • Modellers • Defined the main diagnostics/ indicators that can be extracted from the output of the coupled numerical models in order to provide information for the socio-economists. CHALLENGE: to define indirect indicators for the provision of goods and services. • Socio-economists • Identified the ecosystem functions (observed and predicted from model simulations) that are pertinent to the selected goods and services as well as their changes during the last decades • Carried out scoping analysis to understand and evaluate key stakeholder perceptions referring to the future ability of the SES marine environments. • Developed a sound methodological approach for integrating scientific modelling and socio-economic analysis. • Transferred and/or adapted state-of-the-art analytical and policy tools to investigate the economic welfare implications of alternative development scenarios in the SES ecosystems.

14. Valuation studies • Questionnaires to valuate the good “Tourism” - Gulf of Lions • Consumers seemed to be willing to pay to improve the situation. For the attribute “important biotopes” the average WTP (willingness to pay) is estimated at 29.65€ in order to prevent 20% decrease and gain 20% of important biotopes area in 20 years compared with today levels. Respondents are also willing to pay an amount of 19.14€ to reduce the probability of “jellyfish outbreaks” from 0.9 to 0.1 for two decades. • 25% of the respondents were guided in their choice by the probability of jellyfish outbreaks, while 38.6% stated that their choice was guided by the attribute ‘important biotopes’. • 20% of the respondents rejected the idea of paying any amount about measures that sustain important biotopes or protect from jellyfish outbreaks. The main reason (15.3%) is that respondents believe that governments and not citizens must pay the implementation costs of measures. Economic valuation of the service “Carbon Sequestration” Mediterranean as a whole is worth more than a billion dollars as a sink for CO2 according to the SESAME measurements

15. More information Download SESAME publications from www.sesame-ip.eu (under “Documents”) Link to SESAME’s database Journal of Marine Systems – Special Issue Thank you

16. Project Duration: 48 months • Start: 1st of January 2012 • 10 Work Packages • Budget 12,973,124 €

17. Project Summary • Identify the interacting patterns of natural and human-derived pressures, assess their impact on marine ecosystems and design an effective and innovative research framework based on sound scientific knowledge. • Design an innovative, small research vessel to serve as a scientific survey tool in very shallow areas. • Use appropriate scenarios to explore interactions between projected human-derived and natural pressures. • Develop a framework of scenario-based adaptive policies and management schemes to help in reaching GES. Help the selection and application of the appropriate descriptors and indicators of the MSFD in the SES. • Define and rank a feasible and realistic adaptation policy framework in order to design management schemes. • Promote the principles and objectives of MSFD across the SES.