Building for the End of Oil ( A work in progress )

1. Building for the End of Oil(A work in progress) David Sheridan, P.E. Executive Director, Green Building Association of Central PA Principal, Sustainable Community Development Co.

2. Peak Oil Concept • Hubbard called the U.S. peak and subsequent depletion accurately • Some analysts feel global peak has occurred, or will occur soon

3. Peak Oil, continued • Petroleum will not end quickly, but if supply drops as demand continues (or increases), there will be a pronounced impact on economies • Aspirations in developing countries will not be put off. Everyone wants the American lifestyle

4. Global Climate Change • Antarctic and arctic ice • Open water absorbs more heat • Greenland ice • Melt water lubricates glaciers • Loss of glaciers worldwide • European temperature extremes

5. My (humble) opinion • Global society (not just the U.S.) is not going to be able to control its petroleum appetite • Petroleum price will continue to increase • Global climate change has reached a tipping point, and the flywheel continues to spin • IT’S TIME TO ADAPT

6. What does adaptation look like?

7. Or it may look like any other house

8. Guiding principles of BFEO • Our homes should last for many years • During the lifetime of these homes, transitions will occur • We need to live comfortably in current petroleum economy • We should be able to move through the transition to a post-petroleum economy with relative ease

9. Elements of BFEO • Elements that pertain to the residence • Electric power • Heat • Water and sanitation • Elements that pertain to the location • Food • Transportation

10. Electric power • Impact of depleting petroleum • Higher cost to produce power • Decreased reliability of distribution system maintenance

11. What should we be prepared to do with respect to electric power? • Be prepared to produce electric power • Be prepared to shed electric power loads within the residence

12. Making electric power • Technology • Photovoltaic? • Wind? • Storage (batteries? hydrogen?) • Scale • Individual residences • Aggregated systems • Local government to organize? • Depends on location

13. Electric power loads in the house • What would the critical loads be? • Heating system (air conditioning?) • Heat pump system • Refrigerator • Selected lighting • Home water system components • Two wiring systems or a controller? • AC or DC?

14. Building strategy • Build to retrofit on-site power generation equipment • Maybe not so far in the future • Electric rates will be free of regulation in 3 or 4 years • Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard • Build to accommodate load shedding • Build to retrofit storage • Differing objectives now and later

15. Heating • Start with high-efficiency thermal envelope • Walls, windows, roof, floors • We need to take advantage of solar energy • Passive • Active • “Supplemental” heating system • “Primary” in the near term

16. Passive solar • Prospect will be unique to the location and orientation • Architectural requirements may affect today’s choices • Can we build to retrofit passive solar features?

17. Active solar • Solar hot water has been cost-effective since it was introduced in the 70s • Solar collectors may not be acceptable in near term because of aesthetic concerns

18. Heating through the transition • Minimize electric power requirement? • Continue to depend on petroleum fuel? • Shape of my current thinking: • Hydronic system – maybe radiant heating • How close can we get to solar energy providing “survival” heat?

19. Water and sanitation • Electric power cost will affect the cost of potable water • Electric power reliability will affect water reliability • Three aspects of water use • Drinking and food preparation • Waste carriage • Washing (bodies and laundry)

20. Drinking water • Rainwater collection – new or retrofit? • Cistern and pump in basement or buried with pump vault? • Pipe to kitchen (and one bathroom lav?) • Filtration • Disinfection • Point of use • Ultraviolet light • Silver

21. Waste carriage • Arrange one bathroom to convert to a composting toilet system • Leave other toilets connected to plumbing • Collect and treat graywater for toilets – now or retrofit? • Bath and shower • Laundry • Sinks

22. Graywater use • Is it allowed by current local codes? • Plumb for it, but use potable water for near term? • How much storage?

23. Washing • Maintain current practices • Curtail when potable water is not available • Cistern water – is there enough for this use?

24. Food – Cooking • What kind of stove? • For near term, gas or electric, according to availability and preference • For post-petroleum, both may have limitations

25. Food – Availability • High intensity gardening on available outdoor space (now or future?)

26. Food – Availability • Our system for putting food on our tables depends utterly on cheap petroleum • To improve our food security, we must decrease the distance our food travels

27. Providing food – the spectrum of possibilities • Depend on the free market to adjust • Community-supported agriculture maintained by the farmer • Contract with the farmer to provide food • Own and operate agricultural activities

28. Can we wait to “retrofit”? • “Retrofit” would entail waiting for the free market to adjust to depleting petroleum • Risk of losing farmland to development in the meantime • Risk of farmers leaving farming

29. Additional benefit of local, balanced agriculture • It brings people back to the land, encouraging stewardship • It provides meaningful employment opportunities

30. And finally, transportation • In the post-petroleum economy: • We need to place our residences in locations that do not bind us to the automobile • We need means of traveling longer distances without depending solely on automobiles

31. In-town location • Town with railroad tracks (or right-of-way) • Accommodate automobiles in the near term • Perhaps shared cars in the longer term • Open additional food-growing areas by decreasing parking

32. Thanks for listening • Discussion • Please help with the concept • Weblog: www.aquacura.com/blog