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EIA and NASEO

EIA and NASEO. National Association of State Energy Officials February 6, 2014 | Washington, DC By Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator Energy Information Administration. Many shared interests. Current winter situation.

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EIA and NASEO

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  1. EIA and NASEO National Association of State Energy Officials February 6, 2014 | Washington, DC By Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator Energy Information Administration Many shared interests

  2. Current winter situation Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  3. Nationally, heating degree days are well above last winter, but near NOAA’s 30-year norms. Recently, the Midwest has been very cold Note: Normal reflects average over 1981-2010 Source: National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Climate Prediction Center Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  4. NOAA forecast calls for below normal temperatures across much of the Midwest through February 15; somewhat improved after 8-14 day outlook 6-10 day outlook Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center, made February 5 Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  5. Regional share of all U.S. households by primary heating fuel Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey National share of homes by primary space heating fuel Regional share of homes by primary space heating fuel (across Census Regions) propane 4.5% heating oil 5.5% natural gas 48.2% Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  6. Conway (KS) price premium over Mt. Belvieu (TX) grew rapidly in late January, but has since narrowed Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters, data through February 5 propane and propylene spot prices dollars per gallon Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  7. State-reported residential retail prices for states in the Midwest Note: Illinois, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee do not report information Source: EIA, State Heating Oil and Propane Program, data through February 5 http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/heatingoilpropane/ Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  8. Rapidly changing energy outlook Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  9. Key results from the AEO2014 Reference case • Growing domestic production of natural gas and oil continues to reshape the U.S. energy economy, with crude oil approaching the 1970 all-time high of 9.6 million barrels per day • Light-duty vehicle energy use declines sharply reflecting slowing growth in vehicle miles traveled and accelerated improvement in vehicle efficiency • With continued growth in shale gas production, natural gas becomes the largest source of U.S. electric power generation, surpassing coal by 2035, and boosting production and natural gas consumption in manufacturing • Strong growth in domestic natural gas production supports increased exports of both pipeline and liquefied natural gas • With strong growth in domestic oil and gas production, U.S. dependence on imported fuels falls sharply • Improved efficiency of energy use and a shift away from carbon-intensive fuels keep U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions below their 2005 level through 2040 Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  10. Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release History Projections 2012 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970 Tight oil Lower 48 offshore Alaska Other lower 48 onshore Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  11. Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release History Projections 2012 2040 2030 44% Motor gasoline 59% 47% 5% 5% Ethanol 4% 31% 30% Diesel CNG/LNG 22% 1% 3% 13% Jet fuel 12% 13% Other* 3% 3% 4% *Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  12. U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release billion cubic feet per day History Projections 2012 100 75 Consumption 50 Domestic supply 25 Net exports 0 -25 Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  13. Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release History Projections 11.0 Electric power 8.5 Industrial* 11.2 9.1 1.7 Transportation** 0.7 3.6 2.9 Commercial 4.1 4.2 Residential *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  14. U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025 U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release billion cubic feet per day History Projections 2012 2025 25 5.4 tcf of exports (14.8 bcf/day) 20 Pipeline exports to Mexico 15 Pipeline exports to Canada 10 Lower 48 states LNG exports 5 Alaska LNG exports 0 Pipeline imports from Canada -5 LNG imports -10 2.0 tcf of imports (5.4 bcf/day) -15 Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  15. Energy-related CO2 emissions remain below the 2005 level over the projection period carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release History Projections 2012 2005 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 9% below the 2005 level in 2020 and 7% below the 2005 level in 2040. Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  16. Expanded coverage of state-leveldata and wood Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  17. U.S. States Energy Portal Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  18. U.S. States Energy Portal Home Page (www.eia.gov/state/) Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  19. Pennsylvania Page (http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=PA) Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  20. Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  21. Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  22. Wood energy data: collaboration to expand coverage • Improving EIA’s data series will require collaborative efforts with: • states through NASEO • Department of Agriculture/Forest Service • various parts of the wood industry • Potential improvements include • covering more forms of wood consumption • standardizing pricing and Btu estimation • surveying wholesale and retail prices of wood products Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  23. Why wood matters • Over 13 million homes use wood, including almost 3 million as the primary heating fuel • Residential wood consumption is now close to fuel oil (between 500-600 trillion Btu) and expected to surpass fuel oil in our projections • Collecting better wood data presents challenges • market lacks standardization • regulation of cordwood retailers varies by location • heat content varies by type of wood, dryness • some transactions may not involve a price Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

  24. U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy State Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/state Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling For more information Howard Gruenspecht, NASEO February 6, 2014

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