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Improving NWS Communication:

Winter Hazards Simplification Demonstration. Improving NWS Communication:. Eli Jacks, Andy Horvitz, Andrew J. Ansorge , Kim J. Runk , John Keyes, Somer A. Erickson, Gregory M. Schoor , John M. Margraf , Melody Magnus, Craig C. Schmidt, Dr. Vankita Brown, John T. Ferree.

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Improving NWS Communication:

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  1. Winter Hazards Simplification Demonstration Improving NWS Communication: Eli Jacks, Andy Horvitz, Andrew J. Ansorge, Kim J. Runk, John Keyes, Somer A. Erickson, Gregory M. Schoor, John M. Margraf, Melody Magnus, Craig C. Schmidt, Dr. Vankita Brown, John T. Ferree

  2. Motivation: Confusion • Misunderstanding among “Watch”, “Warning” and “Advisory” (WWA) terms • Watch and Warning both begin with “W-A” • Too many individual “products” • Surveys and NWS Service Assessments • A Warning is a “heads-up”, as when a policeman lets me off with a warning • Watch is severe and urgent, as in “Hey! Watch out! Duck!”

  3. What Did We Do Last Winter?ANon-Operational Demonstration! • Developed a set of alternative terms in plain English • Generated alternative WWA messages automatically and posted them to a demonstration web page • Collected feedback from the public and partners • Analyzed results & distilled high level feedback Results were interesting and suggested next steps!

  4. Proposed Alternative Approach Official Alternative THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS FORECASTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES CAUTION FOR SNOW. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR A DANGEROUS SNOW STORM. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING.

  5. Demonstration Infrastructure • Displayed the official WWAs and the alternative messages in real-time at 26 WFOs • Requested comments from December 11, 2012 through March 31, 2013 • Benefits of dedicated web site for demonstration: • Ensured no operational impact (e.g. VTEC) • Contained materials explaining the demonstration • Enabled public/partner comments via survey form and email address

  6. hazsimp@noaa.gov please comment 6

  7. Response to the Haz Simp Demo • Received 5201 survey responses and 965 emails Knows WWA; Change OK, 253, 6.1%

  8. Recurring CommentsNumber of recurring comments ≠ Number of respondents

  9. Results/Next Steps • Majority of respondents supported change of some sort • Top three comments: • Use a color and/or numbering scale • Shorten the message • Keep WWA but use alternative terms to clarify • Develop prototypes with social science support based on these key comments

  10. International Hazard Methods UK Met Office Curaçao Vigilance météorologique Meteoalarm

  11. Text Prototype Text: How We Do It Today URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFONAME 215 PM CEST DAY MON DD YYYY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CEST. THIS MEANS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * MAX SNOW RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...BAVARIAN ALPS AND SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH...AUGSBURG...PASSAU AND TROSTBERG. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THE BAVARIAN ALPS...TROSTBERG AND PASSAU. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH AND AUSBURG. * TIMING...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFONAME 215 PM CEST DAY MON DD YYYY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CEST. THIS MEANS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. * LOCATIONS...BAVARIAN ALPS AND SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH...AUGSBURG...PASSAU AND TROSTBERG. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THE BAVARIAN ALPS...TROSTBERG AND PASSAU. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH AND AUSBURG. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * MAX SNOW RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFONAME 215 PM CEST DAY MON DD YYYY ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CEST THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...BAVARIAN ALPS AND SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH...AUGSBURG...PASSAU AND TROSTBERG. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THE BAVARIAN ALPS...TROSTBERG AND PASSAU. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH AND AUSBURG. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * MAX SNOW RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFONAME 215 PM CEST DAY MON DD YYYY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CEST THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS...BAVARIAN ALPS AND SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH...AUGSBURG...PASSAU AND TROSTBERG. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THE BAVARIAN ALPS...TROSTBERG AND PASSAU. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH AND AUSBURG. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * MAX SNOW RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFONAME 215 PM CEST DAY MON DD YYYY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CEST: IMPACT SCALE IS 2, WHICH MEANS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * MAX SNOW RATES...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...BAVARIAN ALPS AND SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH...AUGSBURG...PASSAU AND TROSTBERG. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW FOR THE BAVARIAN ALPS...TROSTBERG AND PASSAU. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR RAIN LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DANUBE VALLEY...MUNICH AND AUSBURG. * TIMING...SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION...AT TIMES MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. 3 1 2 4 2 = Moderate Impact

  12. Graphics: How We Do It Today

  13. Graphics Prototype #1: Hazards “Pop Up” on National Map

  14. Graphics Prototype #2:Hazards Appear on Mouse Over WARNING for damaging winds and dangerous wind chills. When: [Time Period] CAUTION advised for strong winds and low wind chills. When: [Time Period]

  15. Graphics Prototype #3: Pictogram Combined with Text Pictogram: Conveys specific information about the weather hazard(s) Supplier Information Product Identifier/ Signal Word Winter Weather Advisory: Caution advised for 2-4” of snow Location: Google Map; city names preferred; otherwise mountain ranges/counties/zone names Locations: Cities in Maryland include, Westminster, Baltimore 2-4” Timing: Noon today until midnight tonight Timing: Hazard/impact timing Impacts: Untreated roads will be snow covered and slick Impacts bullets: Travel impacted, power outages, shelters, etc. Winds: Northeast at 10 to 20 mph Precautionary Statement: Recommend avoid unnecessary travel Other weather info Precautionary Statement: Useful actions <20 words/hazard

  16. Summary • Results of the 2012-13 “Haz Simp” Demonstration indicated a majority of respondents were receptive to change • Accordingly, we have secured NOAA social science support and will prototype a new set of ideas this coming winter for additional comment • Your input on prototypes (or on how to best proceed with this concept) is welcomed! elliott.jacks@noaa.gov

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