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Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 10, 2014

2010-2012 Drought and Outlook. Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 10, 2014. Texas Annual Rainfall. Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2010. Notice Any Trends?. 2010 Texas Rainfall. 2010 Texas Rainfall Departures. DRY. WET.

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Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 10, 2014

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  1. 2010-2012 Drought and Outlook Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District September 10, 2014

  2. Texas Annual Rainfall

  3. Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2010

  4. Notice Any Trends?

  5. 2010 Texas Rainfall

  6. 2010 Texas Rainfall Departures DRY WET

  7. 2010-2011 Texas Rainfall Departures (Sept 10- Oct 11)

  8. Drought Conditions 9-27-11

  9. 2012 Drought Conditions

  10. 2012 Drought Conditions

  11. 2010-2011 Drought 2011 Driest water year on record for Texas

  12. 2011 Summer Heat Days at or above 100: Houston IAH: 46 (32 in 1980) Hobby: 18 (13 in 1998/2000) Conroe: 53 (42 in 1998) Huntsville: 72 (43 in 1980) College Station: 69 (58 in 1917) Dallas: 71 (69 in 1980) Waco: 90 (63 in 1980) Austin Mabry: 90 (69 in 1925) San Antonio: 57 (59 in 2009) Del Rio: 85 (78 in 1953) Most Consecutive 100 degree days: Houston IAH: 24 (14 in 1980) Austin: 27 (21 in 2001) Dallas: 40 (42 in 1980) Waco: 44 (42 in 1980) Top 4 Warmest months for Texas ever: July 2011: 87.2 July 1998: 86.5 July 1980: 86.3 August 1952: 85.7 • Houston tied all-time record high of 109 on 8-27-11 • Galveston: 100 on 8-27-11 for only the 7th time ever • Hottest June-August (summer) period ever!

  13. 2012 Drought Conditions Lake Levels and Capacity (Lowest Levels) O.H. Ivie: -41.36 (16%) Lake Brownwood: -16.7 (37%) Canyon Lake: -10.64 (78%) Lake Somerville: -10.36(37%) Lake Texana: -12.43(41%) Lake Buchanan: -30.22 (35%) Lake Travis: -54.74 (34%) Lake Georgetown: -25.31 (34%) Toledo Bend: -12.43 (58%) Sam Rayburn: -13.60 (55%) Lake Levels and Capacity June 8 O.H. Ivie: -41.36 (16%) Lake Brownwood: -10.96 (55%) Canyon Lake: -4.55 (90%) Lake Somerville: -.08 (99%) Lake Texana: -1.25 (92%) Lake Buchanan: -20.24 (55%) Lake Travis: -38.46 (49%) Lake Georgetown: -2.06 (93%) Toledo Bend: -2.57 (89%) Sam Rayburn: -.77 (97%) Lake Houston Lake Travis

  14. 2011 Drought Conditions 1 acre foot = 325,851 gallons 192,404 acre feet evaporated in 2011!

  15. Lake Travis

  16. LCRA Water Supply Projections Lake Travis Pedernales River

  17.                                                                                                                                                                                                <>                                                                                                                                                                                                  <>                                                                                                                                                                                                <>                                                                                                                                                                                                <>                                                                                                                                                                                                <>                                                                                                                                                                                                <> Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB

  18. 2012 Drought Conditions Mandatory: 33 Voluntary: 34 May 30, 2012 March 30, 2011 Mandatory: 594 Voluntary: 416

  19. 2010-2012 Drought • 2nd worst in C TX based on rainfall behind 1950’s • 2nd worst drought in TX history (behind 1950’s) • At least 7.2 billion in economic losses so far, 90% of corn crop failed • Hay was no longer available for cattle (2011) • Tremendous impacts on livestock, vegetation, economy • 500 million trees lost across TX (10% of state canopy coverage) • Hardest hit (Harris, Montgomery, Grimes, Madison Counties) • 4 million additional trees lost to wildfires (1.5 million in Bastrop alone) • Over 17,500 trees lost in Memorial Park

  20. La Nina Impacts

  21. Rainfall Departures – Last 180 Days

  22. Rainfall Departures – Last 30 Days

  23. Average versus Monthly Total Rainfall Above Average

  24. Rainfall 2011 versus 2012

  25. 2012 Drought Forecast

  26. 2011 Hurricane Season

  27. US Landfalls ? East US Upper Trough H

  28. 2012 Forecasted Sea Level Pressures 2010 2012

  29. Atlantic Sea Temperature Anomalies

  30. 2012-2014 ENSO Forecast Models El Nino Neutral La Nina

  31. 2012 Season Named Storms: 9-15 Hurricanes: 4-8 Major Hurr: 2-3 Analog Years 1957: Hurricane Audrey (cat 4) Sabine Pass TS Bertha (Sabine Pass) 1965: None 2001: TS Allison (Galveston Island) 2009: None

  32. 2012 Summer - Fall Outlook • Normal or possibly above normal rainfall • Above normal temperatures • Active severe weather • Potentially less active 2012 Hurricane Season • Cooler Atlantic SST’s • High than average SLP • Formation of late summer El Nino • Possible close in rapid development • Formation of warm Phase Pacific (El Nino) late summer. • Possibly wet late summer and fall 2012 • Possibly below normal temperatures

  33. Questions Jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org

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