IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPLICATIONS ON WATER GOVERNANCE IN THE ATHI RIVER BASIN

1. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPLICATIONS ON WATER GOVERNANCE IN THE ATHI RIVER BASIN phD proposal by: Magambo EK 2010

2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION/INTRODUCTION • Water is the key medium that links atmospheric temperature rises to changes in human and physical systems • The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as “a change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”; this is by UNFCCC (2002), Geneva.

3. BACKGROUND cont’d • Climate change will alter the hydrological cycle in many ways. • The trigger is the warming of the atmosphere and oceans, which will change major weather systems. • This will alter the temporal and spatial partners of rainfall with consequences for runoff, surface and groundwater storage, river flow regimes and it is estimated greater likehood of extremes, droughts and floods, in different parts of the world.

4. BACKGROUND cont’d • These changes, will affect major human livelihood systems, particularly those dependent on direct access to natural resources or assets. • Rain fed agriculture, human settlement pattern and movement, water supplies, sanitation and irrigation will all be affected leading to changes in human health, wealth and security. • On the demand side, increase in population, urbanization and changes in income levels, will change their demand for water resources , both spatially and temporally.

5. General Effects of Climate Change • Water- intensification of hydrological cycle and related impacts • Agriculture- Effects on yields due to changes in seasonality and pests and diseases • Ecosystems- shifting of ecosystems due to changes in environmental conditions • Health- increase in health problems due to vector and water borne diseases, and heat waves • Coastlines- rise in sea level leading to displacements and effects on quality and quantity of ground water due to contamination with salt water

6. Governance Structures Water governance can be defined as the range of political, social, economic and administrative systems that are in place to regulate the development and management of water resources and provision of water services at different levels of society. The types governace include:- • Public water provision- Government, or cooperatives and user associations • Public- private partnership • Private governance

7. Statement of the Problem • IPCC technical paper on climate change and water states that Water resources issues have not been adequately addressed in climate change analysis and climate policy formulations. • Likewise, in most cases climate change problems have not been dealt with in water resource analysis, management and policy formulation. • This suggests a gap in the analysis required to understand the full effects of climate change on human and natural systems and moreover, how policy makers can and should improve future responses to climate change at country, regional and international levels, including community level.

8. Statement of the Problem cont’d • This is because without sufficient knowledge at basin level, policy makers and practitioners in the water sector can make serious mistakes and generate maladaption responses. • It is from these critical issues on impacts of climate change in relation to water, and water governance that the researcher seeks to investigate the responses from the stakeholders in the water sector.

9. Objectives of the Study The four broader objectives are: • To investigate what mechanisms are in place to respond to impacts of climate change on water. • To establish to what extent various forms of water governance are applied in water management in Kenya. • To investigate the challenges of water governance in the public sector. • To investigate whether public sector water governance stakeholders are ready to combat challenges of climate change on water availability.

10. SPECIFIC PRIMARY RESEARCH QUESTIONS • What changes in climate are expected by 2030 in Kenya? • What impacts could climate change have on water availability and water services sector? • How might water availability be impacted by these changes? • How might water supply be impacted by these changes?

11. QUESTIONS cont’d • Is the future supply: demand ratio sustainable with climate change? • How would these characteristics be managed/ mitigated to become sustainable? • Examine plan of action to combat climate change in water sector?

12. RESEARCH HYPOTHESES • H0: Climate change does not impact on water services. • H1: Alternative • Ho: Climate change has no impact on water governance. • H1: Alternative • Ho: water governance has no impact on water services

13. LITERATURE REVIEW • Research on the effects of climate change on water supply and water demand has not been balanced. While the supply (river flow, rainfall-runoffs, evapo-transpiration-recharge and hydrology) has received considerable scrutiny, the demand side has been neglected. Although water demand has been referred to in climatic studies, empirical evidence is lacking, little in depth, analytical work has been carried out (IPCC, 1996, 1998 and 2001).

14. Evidence of gaps in climate change research • It is evident from IPCC 2001 survey and other studies (Arnell (1998), Goluber (1993), Strzepec (1998) that there have been a great number of studies on the potential effects of climate change on hydrology. • The reports further show that of those studies that looked at hydrology, a majority focused on water balance, specifically effects of climate change on precipitation, runoff, and evaporation rates, recharge and stream flow. • The survey further reveals that a small number of studies look at the impacts of those changes for water resources and still fewer explicitly considered possible adaptation strategies.

15. Evidence of gaps in climate change research cont’d • To show the extent of bias in water resources and climate change research, 305 articles surveyed by the IPPC (2001) references on hydrology and water resources, only 30 articles are demand related. • On these 14 are on impacts of climate change, and irrigation, 13 are on management in the face of climate change and 3 are concerned with urban water use. • None referred to rural water demand and supply for domestic use. Out of 305 articles, 275 focused on runoff, hydrology, evaporation, glaciers and stream flow.

16. Evidence of gaps in climate change research cont’d • IPCC review and other studies are mainly concerned with projections of the extreme weather floods, droughts, Elnino, Lanina phenomena and hydrology. • Boland (1997), Doll (2002) and Kazmarek (1996) reach the same observations, that there is substantial amount of literature on analysis of possible impacts of climate change on water supply, while impacts on water demand (such as irrigation, urban water demand, municipal) have been virtually ignored.

17. Evidence of gaps in climate change research cont’d • It has been concluded that climate change will lead to an increase in water demand. Thus having anticipated the impacts of climate change on water demand, water planners and managers especially those on the demand side, are increasingly calling for integrating climate change impacts into water demand management (Dankor and Wolde, undated). • From the few studies on water demand and climate change/variability it can be concluded that climate change has positive effect on water use at the urban domestic level.

18. LITERATURE REVIEW ON WATER GOVERNANCE • Water governance can be traced back more that 5000 years. However it was only in 1982 and 1997 respectively that global water agreements like UN conventions on the sea and water courses were adopted. • Only recently has water become prominent on the global political agenda, for example with Mar del Plata Conference of 1997, the Dublin Conference on water 1992, the water chapter in agenda 21 adopted in 1992, the four world water fora since 1997 and Millennium Declaration of 2000.

19. WATER GOVERNANCE cont’d • Likewise, scientific work on water has only recently been globalized - for example with the Global water system project of the Earth system science partnering and the UN-wide world water assessment programme. • Growing political interest in water research and governance raises the questions: what are the appropriate levels at which research and policy on water governance should be undertaken, and which issues should be addressed at which levels.

20. WATER GOVERNANCE cont’d • Water is a major global public good. Global governance theories that do not actively study the management of global pubic goods, particularly in the environmental area will miss the rapidly evolving key issues of the twenty first century • Important aspects of contemporary water governance come in the form of international law.

21. WATER GOVERNANCE IN KENYA • In response to the plan of action agreed on in 2002 and in an effort to meet MDGs Government of Kenya enacted Water Act,2002. • This put in place various institutions for water management as given in the chart below • The study will focus on analysing how effective these institutions are in meeting their mandate in the face os climate change

22. WATER GOVERNANCE IN KENYA cont’d • Analyzing the water supply and sanitation services governance in Kenyan sector, therefore must focus on the current situation of service provision by looking at actors al all levels, what policies and strategies are governing their activities, the existing challenges and gaps in water and sanitation service provision and define interventions for ensuring better provision for those who are currently un-served or inadequately served.

25. Explanation of Conceptual Framework • Climate change impacts negatively on water resources due to increased rates of evaporation and frequency of extremes such as floods • The effects on water quantity affects peoples livelihoods due to reduced water for domestic, industrial and irrigation use • Reduced water quality affects peoples health through water borne diseases • Water governance affects water resources both in quality and quantity and this consequently affects peoples’ livelihoods • Water management institutions determine the governance structures and therefore affect water resources

26. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY • RESEARCH DESIGN Our study will employ a descriptive survey design; it will collect data from the population to determine, and report the way things are • POPULATION OF THE STUDY Our study area will comprise the Athi catchment which is one of the six basins into which WRMA has divided the country for water management purposes. All WRMA and WSREB institutions in Athi will form the population of the study

27. METHODOLOGY cont’d • Athi catchment is comprised of six regions which are named as follows: Kiambu, Nairobi, Kibwezi, Loitokitok, Mombasa, Kwale. SAMPLE AND SAMPLING METHOD • Two of the regions in Athi will be selected to represent Urban and Rural scenarios. These are Kiambu and Nairobi regions. Items for the sample will be randomly picked from the two regions such that 30% WRMA and 30% of WSREB institutions are represented • Stratified random sampling will be used to pick elements for the sample

28. METHODOLOGY cont’d • VARIABLES OF THE SUTDY The variables of the study will be impacts of climate change on water resources, and water governance. DATA COLLECTION • The research instrument to be used will be questionnaires, interviews recorded on well structured questionnaires • secondary data will be used to obtain factual information held by the water actors in the Athi region about climate change and water governance.

29. METHODOLOGY cont’d DATA ANALYSIS • Data analysis will be conducted using descriptive statistics. This will include measures of central tendency (the mean), measures of spread (standard deviation) and frequency tabulations. • Trend analysis will also be used to establish the actions of the actors on water governance in response to climate change.